[Mandatory Task] Retrieve and analyze the latest order book data for the 'UpOnly Podcast Guest' market. Given the low total volume of ~$4,900, evaluate the bid-ask spreads and liquidity depth for popular options (e.g., Ansem, GCR) versus highly improbable ones (e.g., SBF). Are there mispricing or arbitrage opportunities caused by illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve and analyze the latest order book data for the 'UpOnly Podcast Guest' market. Given the low total volume of ~$4,900, evaluate the bid-ask spreads and liquidity depth for popular options (e.g., Ansem, GCR) versus highly improbable ones (e.g., SBF). Are there mispricing or arbitrage opportunities caused by illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Search the recent X (Twitter) activity and replies of hosts @Cobie and @Ledger for any hints regarding an 'UpOnly revival' or 'new season,' or interactions with listed guests (e.g., Brian Armstrong, Vitalik). Summarize whether the current narrative points to a surprise comeback or an indefinite hiatus.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Search the recent X (Twitter) activity and replies of hosts @Cobie and @Ledger for any hints regarding an 'UpOnly revival' or 'new season,' or interactions with listed guests (e.g., Brian Armstrong, Vitalik). Summarize whether the current narrative points to a surprise comeback or an indefinite hiatus.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Calculate the 'Opportunity Cost of Capital' for betting 'No' on guests with special circumstances like SBF (currently incarcerated) or Martin Shkreli. If holding this position until the late 2026 resolution date, does the implied annualized return outperform the risk-free rate of DeFi stablecoin yields or Treasury bills (approx. 4-5%) over the same period?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Calculate the 'Opportunity Cost of Capital' for betting 'No' on guests with special circumstances like SBF (currently incarcerated) or Martin Shkreli. If holding this position until the late 2026 resolution date, does the implied annualized return outperform the risk-free rate of DeFi stablecoin yields or Treasury bills (approx. 4-5%) over the same period?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?

Crypto|$24.8k Vol|

261 days 17 hrs

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027? - AI Found +58.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.31 01:37

Top Undervalued

+58.5¢

Brian Armstrong(Yes)

+34.5¢

Jesse Pollak(Yes)

+32.9¢

Vitalik Buterin(Yes)

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027? AI analysis: • +58.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The valuation logic anchors on the commercial reality of Coinbase's $25M acquisition of UpOnly. This...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Brian Armstrong

YesNo

26.5¢

73.5¢

85¢

15¢

+58.5¢

0¢

Jesse Pollak

YesNo

45.5¢

54.5¢

80¢

20¢

+34.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 21 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

UpOnly is a niche podcast specific to crypto culture. While famous within the industry, it is obscure to the general public. Predicting podcast guests falls under 'niche cultural prediction', sitting between standard election/financial markets and completely absurd novelty bets.

Movers

Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026: ThreadGuy's price surged from 26.5c to 46c, Gainzy's from 34c to 49.5c, and Jeff Yan's from 32c to 47.5c. This was driven by market expectations that the initial guest lineup will heavily favor highly active Crypto Twitter personalities and top ecosystem founders, sparking capital rotation into native crypto KOLs. Mar 09, 2026 - Mar 10, 2026: Jesse Pollak's price recovered from 38c to 46c, likely reflecting a market correction reaffirming the fundamental logic that the Base Lead must appear to support Coinbase's marketing strategy. Feb 23, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026: Guy Young's price surged from 20.5c to 50c, likely a mean-reversion recovery following a flash crash in the prior session. Feb 22, 2026 - Feb 24, 2026: Brian Armstrong's price spiked from 44c to 63c before correcting to 52.5c, reflecting high volatility likely driven by rumors regarding the debut episode's recording schedule.

Divergence

The prediction market currently assigns an almost 30% implied probability to SBF appearing on the podcast, which wildly diverges from mainstream consensus and basic reality. SBF is serving a 25-year sentence in federal prison, and the mainstream view assumes he is completely isolated from public media engagements until well past 2027. This pricing anomaly is likely due to a lack of 'No' side liquidity or degens betting on extreme, unforeseen bail/appeal technicalities, which are vastly overpriced.