Which NFL players will be traded?
Sports|$62.8k Vol|
time99 days 12 hrs

Which NFL players will be traded? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 07:44
Top Undervalued
+3.7¢
Alec Pierce(No)
+1.8¢
Travis Etienne(No)
+1.5¢
De'Von Achane(No)

Which NFL players will be traded? AI analysis: • +3.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
We are currently in the early 2026 offseason, with about 100 days until the July 22 trade deadline f...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish
Sports|$103.5k Vol|
time5 days 3 hrs

Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Charles Leclerc(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
2¢
Arbitrage
384%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares for options where the No price is below 50c (e.g., Valtteri Bottas at 47.5c). Since the market will resolve at 50c, any purchase cost below 50c will yield a risk-free profit. Plan Description: Since the event is permanently cancelled and rules explicitly dictate a 50-50 resolution, every Yes ...
🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Due to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix has been official...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 'Yes' prices for multiple drivers including Pierre Gasly, Fernando Alonso, Alexander Albon, Gabriel Bortoleto, Valtteri Bottas, and Esteban Ocon spiked from 50c to 70c-73.5c, before falling back to around 51c-52c. This was likely caused by traders unaware of the official race cancellation and the 50-50 resolution rule, making irrational speculative buys before arbitrageurs corrected the prices back towards 50c. March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Gabriel Bortoleto's price plunged from 58c to 43c before recovering to 50c. This was due to random speculative trades in a highly illiquid market. March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Pierre Gasly's price spiked from 46c to 56c, then dropped back to 50c, also primarily driven by chaotic fluctuations lacking real liquidity.
AI Analysis
Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Politics|$22.6k Vol|
time34 days 12 hrs

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+5¢
Charles Booker(No)
+2¢
Amy McGrath(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Charles Booker's price has stabilized around 79c, with Amy McGrath at 17.5c. While Booker maintains ...
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AI Analysis
Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics|$101.8k Vol|
time34 days 12 hrs

Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Andy Barr(No)
+0.2¢
Wende Kennedy(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Over the past week, Andy Barr's price slightly retraced from a peak of 72c on April 9th to 64.5c, bu...
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AI Analysis
What will Trump say during Fox Business interview on April 15?
Mentions|$42.1k Vol|
time12 hrs 26 mins

What will Trump say during Fox Business interview on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+65.5¢
Mine(No)
+62¢
Dow / S&P(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on Trump's past interview habits, terms like 'Biden', 'Inflation', 'Democrat', and 'MAGA' are ...
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Rule Risk
The exact word-matching rules are strict (plurals, possessives, and compound words count, but not other forms), and some options require specific frequency thresholds (e.g., 5+ times). This creates a high risk of resolution disputes based on minor transcript discrepancies.
Exotics
This is a classic 'political speech bingo' market. Predicting the exact vocabulary a politician will use in a single interview (including obscure terms like 'Bottom of the Sea') is a highly niche, novelty, and entertainment-driven prediction.
Divergence
The Yes price for highly frequent terms (like Biden, Inflation) on Polymarket is only 0.415, severely underestimating the probability of Trump mentioning these signature political and economic terms. Mainstream media and historical text analyses consistently identify these as his core talking points.
AI Analysis
Elon Musk # tweets April 13 - April 15, 2026?
Culture|$498.1k Vol|
time1 days 4 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets April 13 - April 15, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
40-64(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
0.25¢
Arbitrage
9.12%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes for all options Plan Description: The sum of Yes prices for all options is currently 99.75c, while exactly one option will resolve to ...
🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing and current progress with about a day left until settlement, Musk...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
Relying on a specific tracker (xtracker) introduces technical risks, such as missing quickly deleted tweets or misclassifying main-feed replies. Although X is a fallback, discrepancies between automated tracker data and manual counting often cause resolution disputes.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of tweets a specific individual makes in a random 48-hour window is a highly niche, novelty market driven by pure degency rather than conventional public interest.
Movers
April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 90-114 option surged from 13.5c to 32c (then fell to 22.5c), as the market observed a significant increase in posting frequency, pushing up volume expectations. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 40-64 option plummeted from 29c to 12.5c (rebounding to 20.5c), due to the market observing an increase in his recent tweeting frequency, leading to a sharp drop in expectations for lower tweet counts. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 115-139 option surged from 2.5c to 15.45c (before settling at 8.2c), as his activity spiked and the market began betting on higher posting volumes. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 65-89 option plummeted from 50.5c to 35.5c (rebounding to 44.5c), as capital rotated to higher-tier options.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Alec Pierce
YesNo
46.7¢
53.3¢
43¢
57¢
+3.7¢
Travis Etienne
YesNo
12.85¢
87.15¢
11¢
89¢
+1.8¢

Expand to view all 14 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 11-12, 2026: Brian Thomas Jr.'s price surged from 2.55c to 16.7c, likely due to emerging rumors regarding a potential trade or hints at roster adjustments. April 11-12, 2026: AJ Brown's price increased from 55.5c to 66c, likely driven by escalating trade rumors or contract negotiation stalemates related to the Philadelphia Eagles. April 9-10, 2026: Alec Pierce's price crashed from 31.6c to 2.1c (before rebounding to 44.65c on the 11th), caused by massive back-and-forth reporting regarding his roster status, potentially influenced by internal team evaluations or tentative trade offers. April 9-10, 2026: De'Von Achane's price plummeted from 50c to 28c (before bouncing back to 50.5c on the 11th), likely due to news surrounding the Miami Dolphins' running back rotation plans or extension intentions causing severe market swings. March 27-28, 2026: Alvin Kamara plummeted from 22.35c to 10.35c, as the market expected his contract situation with the Saints to resolve in favor of him staying. March 26-27, 2026: Travis Etienne crashed from 20.65c to 4.15c (before rebounding to 19.95c on the 28th), due to conflicting reports regarding his extension negotiations causing severe market swings. March 13-14, 2026: Alec Pierce surged from 5.55c to 43.75c as the new league year began and specific reports emerged regarding the Colts seeking to trade him due to cap casualties. March 13-14, 2026: Trey Hendrickson rebounded from 5.5c to 23.65c, as the market corrected an overreaction and re-evaluated trade interest amidst the Bengals' defensive restructuring. March 10-11, 2026: Breece Hall crashed from 47.5c to 5.5c as the franchise tag deadline passed without the Jets tagging him for a trade, implying he either extended or hit free agency directly, eliminating the trade thesis.

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