White House # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026?
Politics|$19.7k Vol|
time3 days 8 hrs

White House # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 6 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
140-159(No)
+3.5¢
160-179(Yes)
+2.5¢
180-199(Yes)

White House # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026? AI analysis: • +6.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As the halfway point passes, the actual run-rate of the White House X account is very clear. Current...
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Highest temperature in NYC on April 14?
Weather|$69.2k Vol|
time4 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in NYC on April 14?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
82-83°F(No)
+2.2¢
88-89°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts and market trading trends, the highest temperature at New York...
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Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option further climbed from 27c to 38.5c, while the 78-79°F option plummeted from 21c to 8.5c. This was due to approaching resolution and updated weather models confirming the incoming heat wave, eliminating the chances of milder temperatures. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option surged from 8c to 27c, as new weather models predicted temperatures might be slightly higher than previously expected. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 74-75°F option fell from 14c to 3.9c, as weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of lower temperatures.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Seattle on April 14?
Weather|$41.4k Vol|
time4 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in Seattle on April 14?

Top Undervalued
+10¢
46-47°F(No)
+8¢
48-49°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts, NWS predicts a high near 50°F (with rain) for Seattle on April 14...
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Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' plummeted from 25c to 4c before recovering to 8.9c, as weather models adjusted the expected temperatures upward during the rain event, pricing out extreme cold. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '46-47°F' dropped from 34c to 19.5c before rebounding to 31c, reflecting market indecision and minor model adjustments regarding the exact magnitude of the frontal cooling.
Divergence
There is a noticeable divergence. Mainstream forecasts (like NWS and KING 5) project a high around 50-51°F, yet the market assigns the highest probability (~68%) to the colder 46-49°F range. This suggests the market might be relying on more aggressive cold-front models (like specific high-res local models) or anticipating that continuous rain will suppress the actual daytime high more than generic forecasts suggest.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Paris on April 14?
Weather|$53.9k Vol|
time4 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in Paris on April 14?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
17°C(No)
+7.5¢
18°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature for Paris (including Charles de Gaul...
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Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 15°C option plummeted from 26.5c to 8.5c, while the 17°C option rose from 27.5c to 38c, as weather models adjusted their peak temperature forecasts from a cooler 15-16°C up to 16-17°C as the date approached. April 12, 2026, the 18°C option spiked to 35c before dropping back to 21c, due to intraday volatility in weather forecasts that eventually settled on the 16-17°C range.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?
Weather|$26.3k Vol|
time4 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?

Top Undervalued
+17.5¢
27°C(No)
+13.5¢
28°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Sao Paulo (Guarulhos Airport) on ...
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Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 29°C option plummeted from 25.5c to 4.3c, the 25°C option dropped from 25c to 7.5c, while the 28°C option rose from 20.5c to 30.5c. This is because, as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models have converged, ruling out more extreme temperatures (25°C and 29°C) and concentrating market confidence in the 26°C-28°C range. In the previous analysis, no options had experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the prior 3 days.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in London on April 14?
Weather|$218.2k Vol|
time4 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in London on April 14?

Top Undervalued
+24.5¢
17°C(Yes)
+17.5¢
15°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market prices and previous forecasts, the probability of 16°C has risen to the h...
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Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 16°C surged from 40c to 51c, as weather forecast data further confirmed 16°C as the most likely high temperature approaching resolution. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 17°C fell back from a high of 43.5c to 30.5c, because as time progressed, the likelihood of reaching 17°C decreased, with forecasts trending towards a slightly cooler 16°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 16°C surged steadily from 17.5c to a peak of 52.5c before settling at 38.5c, as weather forecasting models became much more certain about highs reaching 16°C or above as the date approached. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 17°C climbed significantly from 17.5c to a high of 43.5c, driven by updated Wunderground forecasts indicating a high of 63°F (approx. 17°C). April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 14°C plummeted from a high of 23c to under 1c, because updated forecasts consistently indicated temperatures would be significantly higher than 14°C.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
140-159
YesNo
45.5¢
54.5¢
39¢
61¢
+6.5¢
160-179
YesNo
37.5¢
62.5¢
41¢
59¢
+3.5¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
This is a highly niche and trivial topic. The general public and mainstream media would never naturally wonder or predict the exact number of times the White House account tweets in a specific week. It is a purely manufactured betting market for high-frequency trading.
Movers
April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 23.5c to 2.85c, as the accumulated data over the weekend confirmed a lower run-rate, virtually eliminating the chance of exceeding 200 posts. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option dropped from 26.5c to 11.5c, because the required posting rate to reach this higher tier became less likely as days passed. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 23c to 38.5c, as the daily posting rate stabilized, significantly increasing the probability of ending in this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 36.5c to 4.5c, because as weekend data accumulated, the posting rate stabilized, significantly reducing the likelihood of reaching an extremely high total (200+). April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 12c to 26.5c (later falling to 23c), because as the 200+ probability dropped, some of those extreme expectations shifted to this second-highest range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 43c to 28c, because the actual rate leaned slightly towards higher ranges (160-179), further compressing the probability of this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 28c to 5.5c, as the high posting frequency caused a sharp drop in the probability of landing in this relatively lower tier. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.45c, because the high frequency of tweets from the White House makes it highly likely that the total will exceed this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 25.5c to 6.5c, also due to the high tweet frequency causing a sharp drop in the probability of this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.05c, because the total number of tweets has already far exceeded this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.2c, because the total number of tweets has already exceeded this range.

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