ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics|$10.1k Vol|
time55 days 2 hrs

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.31 12:44
Top Undervalued
+9¢
Matthew Dunlap(No)
+7¢
Jordan Wood(Yes)
+2¢
Joe Baldacci(Yes)

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Jared Golden officially announced his retirement in Nov 2025 and is not seeking re-election; his cur...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Maryland Governor Election Winner
Politics|$15.3k Vol|
time202 days 2 hrs

Maryland Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Democrat(Yes)
+3.5¢
Republican(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Maryland remains a solidly deep blue state with strong political fundamentals. Incumbent Democratic ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Maryland Governor Election Winner' event. Given the relatively low volume ($14k), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth. Assess whether the current odds accurately reflect Maryland's fundamental status as a 'Deep Blue' state, or if the price is distorted by low liquidity, creating potential arbitrage opportunities.
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?
Business|$30.4k Vol|
time261 days 7 hrs

Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+28¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the current market price of 68c and previous analysis, rumors of CoinGecko hiring Moelis & ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket data for 'Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?', analyze the order book depth and current volume (~$20k), and update the fair value assessment by weighing CoinGecko's historical 'independence' narrative against recent M&A trends in the crypto data sector (e.g., The Block, CoinDesk).
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Economy|$47.1k Vol|
time22 days 2 hrs

Bank of Mexico Decision in May

Top Undervalued
+2¢
No change(Yes)
+1.5¢
Increase(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Market expectations have undergone a fundamental shift over the past few weeks, with the implied pro...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Hedging
MXN=X
The Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision directly determines the yield attractiveness of the Peso (MXN), thus having a direct and significant tradable impact on the USD/MXN exchange rate (Score 3). Additionally, rate changes affect the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) by influencing borrowing costs and economic growth expectations. While the impact on the global Dollar Index (DXY) is negligible, this is a critical hedging or speculative event for investors holding Mexican assets or engaging in carry trades.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Bank of Mexico Decision in May' event. Given the extremely low volume (~$200), critically analyze the bid-ask spread and depth to assess liquidity risk. Combine this with Banxico's latest policy statement and inflation data to determine if current odds for 'Decrease' or 'No change' deviate from their fundamental fair value.
IL-03 House Election Winner
Elections|$21.1k Vol|
time202 days 2 hrs

IL-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.6¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+2.9¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (IL-03) is a solid Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of D+1...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the current order book data for the 'IL-03 House Election Winner' market. Given the low trading volume ($8,135), analyze the bid-ask spread to determine the fair value of the Democratic option and assess if liquidity is sufficient for entry without significant slippage, while verifying the Cook PVI partisan lean to identify arbitrage gaps.
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Politics|$536.6k Vol|
time76 days 2 hrs

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Top Undervalued
+82.5¢
Pakistan(No)
+29.4¢
Oman(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Oman and Qatar have historically been the primary intermediaries and hosts for indirect or direct di...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
The rules define 'diplomatic meeting' to include indirect meetings via authorized intermediaries but exclude remote ones. Resolution depends on the US State Department's regional classification for 'Other' categories. Risk arises from disputes over whether indirect talks qualify and delays in official acknowledgment.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Easing tensions or new diplomatic engagements between the US and Iran often impact global crude oil prices. If a meeting occurs and progresses, it could signal potential sanctions relief, increasing oil supply and causing a moderate impact on crude oil prices.
Divergence
Due to a broken market, low-probability options like Pakistan have an implied probability of over 50%, completely diverging from the consensus of all mainstream international relations experts.
AI Analysis
Explain in simple terms: How does the market define a valid "indirect diplomatic meeting" between the US and Iran, and what exact criteria are used to draw the geographical boundaries for the "Other - Europe" and "Other - Middle East/North Africa" options?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Matthew Dunlap
YesNo
29¢
71¢
20¢
80¢
0¢
+9¢
Jordan Wood
YesNo
23¢
77¢
30¢
70¢
+7¢
0¢

Expand to view all 4 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
There are two main risks: 1. Maine uses Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). If no candidate wins 50% in the first round, the tabulation process can take days or weeks, causing resolution delays. 2. The 'Options' list provided does not explicitly include 'Other', yet the rules mention resolving to 'Other'. If an unlisted candidate (like Paige Loud or Troy Jackson, mentioned in search results) wins, holders of the listed specific candidates would lose everything, creating a hidden 'Field' risk. Additionally, Jared Golden announced in Nov 2025 he would not run, yet he remains a listed option, which is a trap for uninformed traders.

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