Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
Politics|$111.7k Vol|
time62 days 12 hrs

Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? - AI Found +17¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.12 10:58
Top Undervalued
+17¢
Kenyan McDuffie(Yes)
+12¢
Janeese Lewis George(No)
+1¢
Gary Goodweather(Yes)

Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? AI analysis: • +17¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Market uncertainty has decreased significantly over the past week. Janeese Lewis George's price stro...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Beijing on April 15?
Weather|$17.0k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Beijing on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
27°C(Yes)
+2¢
26°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest forecast data, the highest temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport ...
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Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of the 26°C option surged from 19c to 31.5c, the 25°C option rose from 22c to 29c, and the 24°C option fell from 31c to 14c. This was due to weather forecast models locking the expected high temperature into the 25°C-26°C range as the date approached, ruling out lower temperatures. April 13, 2026: The Yes price for 25°C surged from 22c to 36c, while the 28°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 6.5c. This was driven by updated weather forecast models which ruled out anomalous high temperatures and concentrated expectations around the 24°C-25°C range.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
Weather|$28.0k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+39.5¢
28°C(Yes)
+28.5¢
30°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature for Shenzhen Bao'an International Ai...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily highest temperature of a specific city is a niche prediction market derived from everyday life. While weather forecasts are ubiquitous, treating a single city's daily temperature as a standalone financial prediction event retains a moderate level of novelty.
Movers
On April 13, 2026, several options saw dramatic price drops: '24°C' fell from 20.5c to 1.3c, '25°C' from 32.5c to 1.75c, '26°C' from 20.5c to 4.2c, '27°C' from 20.5c to 7.0c, and '32°C or higher' from 26.5c to 9.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, updated weather forecasts have confidently pinpointed the high temperature around 28°C, prompting the market to aggressively correct earlier premiums priced for unseasonal extremes.
Divergence
There is a notable divergence. The market is still assigning high probabilities to '29°C' (27c), '30°C' (24c), and '31°C' (21c), pricing them equal to or higher than '28°C' (24.5c). However, virtually all major meteorological platforms (e.g., AccuWeather, Trip.com, Weather.com) project a high of 28°C or 27°C for April 15. The market is significantly overestimating the likelihood of the temperature reaching 30°C or above.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?
Weather|$47.8k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+15¢
20°C or higher(Yes)
+7¢
19°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the highest temperature for Shanghai Pudong on Apr...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche daily weather forecast market. While not absurd, it is less mainstream compared to standard political or economic topics, giving it a moderate novelty factor.
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '20°C or higher' option fluctuated drastically between 33c and 56c. This was due to divergence in weather models regarding cloud cover and precipitation probability as the resolution date approached, causing market debate over whether temperatures would break 20°C. April 13, 2026, the price of the '18°C' option surged from 12c to 24.5c. This was due to updated short-term weather forecasting models indicating that cloud cover or light precipitation might suppress the maximum temperature to around 18°C.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 15?
Weather|$16.1k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
24°C(No)
+4¢
22°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest authoritative weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground and Google Weather) indicate that Cho...
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Exotics
While daily weather forecasting is extremely common, establishing a prediction market for the exact high temperature of a specific inland city on a specific day down to the exact degree remains a somewhat niche and novelty topic.
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of the 22°C option steadily rose from 21.5c to a peak of 33.5c. This upward trend was driven by weather forecast models converging on 22°C as the most likely high temperature as the date approached. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of the 19°C option plummeted from 11.5c to 1.2c, and the 24°C option dropped from 19.5c to 9.5c. This occurred because the possibility of temperatures straying too far from the median was effectively ruled out by the highly accurate short-term meteorological forecasts.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Austin on April 15?
Weather|$22.1k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Austin on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
80°F or higher(No)
+0.2¢
68-69°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological data, as the target date (April 15) approaches within 24 hour...
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Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '80°F or higher' surged from 77c to approximately 92.5c, while the prices for '76-77°F' and '78-79°F' plummeted by over 15c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models have highly converged, confirming that Austin's high temperature on April 15 will break the 80°F mark. On April 13, 2026, the prices of multiple lower temperature options (68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F) plummeted, with drops ranging from 12c to 17.5c. The reason is that as the target date approaches, weather forecast models updated and converged, confirming that the high temperature on April 15 will reach around 80°F, thereby eliminating the likelihood of lower temperatures.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Kenyan McDuffie
YesNo
22¢
78¢
39¢
61¢
+17¢
Janeese Lewis George
YesNo
65¢
35¢
53¢
47¢
+12¢

Expand to view all 12 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie's price surged from 24.5c to 38.5c, likely due to a reassessment of his campaign momentum or a reconsolidation of establishment support behind him. April 6, 2026 - April 9, 2026, Janeese Lewis George's price surged from 25c to 54c, likely due to securing a key endorsement or performing exceptionally well in recent polls, strongly reclaiming her status as the frontrunner. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, Janeese Lewis George's price crashed from 48c to 27.5c before a minor rebound to 30.5c; Kenyan McDuffie's price fell from 37c to 24.5c. The reason is a sharp loss of confidence in the frontrunners, potentially driven by rumors of a new strong entrant or impactful negative news. March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie's price surged from 35c to 49c. The reason is Phil Mendelson's apparent exit or sharp decline in momentum, causing establishment votes to reconsolidate behind McDuffie. March 24, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Phil Mendelson's price crashed from 14.7c to 0.5c. The reason is likely his explicit decision not to run or failure to secure expected political support, leading the market to quickly price out his chances of winning. March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Phil Mendelson's price skyrocketed from 0.6c to 19.95c before settling at 14.2c. The reason is this sudden surge disrupted the existing duopoly, highly likely corresponding to Mendelson formally announcing his candidacy or receiving a key endorsement, causing a massive repricing of the establishment vote share. March 18, 2026 - March 21, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie experienced severe volatility, bouncing from 34.5c to 49c before dropping back to 42.5c. The reason is the market digesting the shock of Mendelson's entry, with investors reassessing his status as the establishment frontrunner. March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie's price crashed from 47.5c to 30.5c before quickly rebounding. The reason was likely a single large market order wiping out liquidity or a misinterpretation of a specific poll, after which the market quickly corrected the mispricing.

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