Will Extended launch a token by ___ ? - AI Mispricing Alert

Crypto|$182.1k Vol|

261 days 21 hrs

Will Extended launch a token by ___ ? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.08 10:45

Top Undervalued

+2.5¢

September 30, 2026(No)

+2.5¢

June 30, 2026(No)

+0.5¢

December 31, 2026(Yes)

Will Extended launch a token by ___ ? AI analysis: • +2.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

As Q2 2026 progresses without clear Token Generation Event (TGE) signals from the Extended team, mar...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Trump|$1.5m Vol|

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With only 76 days remaining until June 30, there are no signs of consensus between Russia and Ukrain...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a notable discrepancy regarding dates: the general text cites Dec 31, 2025, while the options list Feb, Mar, and Jun. While specific option dates usually prevail, this creates ambiguity. Crucially, the resolution criteria are extremely strict, requiring 'written instruments' or 'formal joint communiqués'. Verbal announcements or tweets do not count, creating a trap where market participants might bet 'Yes' on headlines, but the market resolves 'No' due to the lack of specified formal documentation.

A confirmed ceasefire framework would be a major pivot point for global markets. Crude Oil faces the highest impact (Score 4), likely crashing as the war risk premium evaporates. Gold would likely decline as safe-haven demand fades. Broader equities (S&P 500) typically rally on reduced uncertainty, whereas defense contractors (e.g., RTX) might face volatility due to anticipated lower immediate military consumption.

[Category 2] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the current geopolitical schedule, list key diplomatic milestones in the coming weeks (such as the Munich Security Conference, US-Ukraine bilateral summits, or G7 meetings) that could catalyze the signing of such a ceasefire framework, and analyze the likelihood of an "official communiqué" meeting the resolution criteria being issued during these events.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest diplomatic updates regarding "Ukraine agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework," visit the Polymarket page to analyze the odds spread and capital flow across different expiration dates (Feb 28/Mar 31/Jun 30), and assess whether the current price fully reflects the actual progress of negotiations and potential agreement risks.

[Category 1] [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain in the simplest terms why a verbal promise in an interview or a social media claim by Zelenskyy alone cannot trigger a "Yes" resolution. Detail the specific forms of "official written documents" or "joint statements" required (e.g., presidential decrees, cabinet resolutions) to prevent losses due to misunderstanding the definition of "official agreement."

[Category 2] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the current geopolitical schedule, list key diplomatic milestones in the coming weeks (such as the Munich Security Conference, US-Ukraine bilateral summits, or G7 meetings) that could catalyze the signing of such a ceasefire framework, and analyze the likelihood of an "official communiqué" meeting the resolution criteria being issued during these events.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest diplomatic updates regarding "Ukraine agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework," visit the Polymarket page to analyze the odds spread and capital flow across different expiration dates (Feb 28/Mar 31/Jun 30), and assess whether the current price fully reflects the actual progress of negotiations and potential agreement risks.

Climate & Science|$964.2k Vol|

350 days 16 hrs

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for all options (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5+). Plan Description: The sum of the Yes prices for all mutually exclusive and exhaustive options is 40 + 44 + 5.55 + 2.3 ...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of April 14, 2026, 104 days of the year have passed with no confirmed VEI 4+ eruptions. Using a P...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This falls under niche scientific prediction markets. While not as mainstream as politics or sports, 'disaster prediction' is a classic vertical in prediction markets. The general public understands the concept, but lacks the professional statistical intuition for it.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and the scientific statistical consensus (Poisson distribution). Based on historical Smithsonian GVP data, the annual average for VEI 4+ eruptions is ~0.7. With 28% of the year passed and zero events, the scientific probability of ending the year with 0 eruptions is over 60%, yet the market prices it at only 40c. Conversely, the market overprices 1 eruption (44c) and highly improbable tail events (options '4' and '5+' combine for >4c despite a near-zero true probability). This divergence is driven by retail risk-aversion premiums for extreme disaster events and a general lack of understanding of statistical probability distributions.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current odds distribution and order depth for options like '0', '1', and '5+'. Simultaneously, review Smithsonian GVP and USGS weekly reports for Jan-Feb 2026 to confirm if any occurred eruptions are currently pending VEI 4 classification, re-assessing fair value based on actual activity.

World|$15.1m Vol|

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Top Undervalued

December 31(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of April 14, 2026, with only about half a month left until the end of April, there are no credibl...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a specific political/geopolitical hypothetical. While Reza Pahlavi is a key opposition figure, his physical entry into Iran would typically imply significant regime instability or collapse, making this a speculative and non-routine political prediction.

If Pahlavi enters Iran, it almost certainly implies the collapse of the current regime, civil war, or extreme geopolitical instability. As a major oil producer and controller of the Strait of Hormuz, such an event would cause immediate and violent volatility in Crude Oil prices (panic spikes or volatility due to sanction expectations). Gold and US Yields would also react to the risk-off sentiment.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Access the Polymarket page to analyze the current order book depth and user discussions. Combine this with the latest news regarding Reza Pahlavi's itinerary, Iranian regime stability, and exiled opposition activities to re-assess the fair value, potential arbitrage opportunities, and capital lock-up risks for the 'Yes' and 'No' options.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Access the Polymarket page to analyze the current order book depth and user discussions. Combine this with the latest news regarding Reza Pahlavi's itinerary, Iranian regime stability, and exiled opposition activities to re-assess the fair value, potential arbitrage opportunities, and capital lock-up risks for the 'Yes' and 'No' options.

Politics|$2.0m Vol|

260 days 16 hrs

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option 'No' Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 95.25c. Given that Epstein's death is an established fact, the probabi...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Jeffrey Epstein's death in 2019 is an established fact confirmed by forensic autopsies, FBI investig...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a quintessential conspiracy theory market. While the circumstances of his death are controversial (the 'Epstein didn't kill himself' meme), his death is official fact. Betting that he is secretly alive and will be revealed as such is highly fringe and detached from mainstream reality.

Mainstream media and official institutions (e.g., medical examiners, FBI) unanimously agree that Jeffrey Epstein died in 2019. However, the prediction market still assigns a nearly 5% probability to the 'Yes' option, indicating that some market participants are trading based on conspiracy theories or speculating on extreme fringe outcomes. This divergence between the market price and mainstream consensus is driven entirely by irrational speculation.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'Epstein Alive' event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, specifically identifying if 'Yes' buying pressure is driven by new conspiracy narratives or pure meme speculation, and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks.

Politics|$2.0m Vol|

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Today is April 14, 2026, and Jerome Powell's current term as Chair of the Federal Reserve ends on Ma...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

[Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

September 30, 2026

YesNo

57.5¢

42.5¢

55¢

45¢

0¢

+2.5¢

June 30, 2026

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+2.5¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the 'June 30, 2026' option price steadily declined from 27c to 12.5c. The reason is the continued lack of updates from the project team in April, leading the market to capitulate on H1 launch hopes; meanwhile, the 'December 31, 2026' option rebounded from 54.75c to 64.35c, representing a technical correction following extreme pessimism. March 19, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of the 'September 30, 2026' option rose from 40.5c to 50c. The reason is that after the previous panic sell-off, market expectations for a Q3 launch stabilized and underwent a degree of upward correction. March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of the 'September 30, 2026' option plummeted from 55.5c to 40c. The reason is that with March half over and no Q2 roadmap or tokenomics details released, market confidence in a 'summer/early autumn launch' collapsed, causing a massive capital shift toward year-end expectations. March 6, 2026 - March 10, 2026, the price of 'June 30' crashed from 64.5c to 39.5c, and 'September 30' dropped from 87.5c to 61.5c. The reason was the project team's continued silence entering mid-March, triggering a panic sell-off of H1 launch expectations. March 1, 2026 - March 3, 2026, the 'June 30' option experienced significant volatility before a brief recovery, establishing the resistance level prior to the subsequent crashes.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Trump|$1.5m Vol|

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With only 76 days remaining until June 30, there are no signs of consensus between Russia and Ukrain...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a notable discrepancy regarding dates: the general text cites Dec 31, 2025, while the options list Feb, Mar, and Jun. While specific option dates usually prevail, this creates ambiguity. Crucially, the resolution criteria are extremely strict, requiring 'written instruments' or 'formal joint communiqués'. Verbal announcements or tweets do not count, creating a trap where market participants might bet 'Yes' on headlines, but the market resolves 'No' due to the lack of specified formal documentation.

A confirmed ceasefire framework would be a major pivot point for global markets. Crude Oil faces the highest impact (Score 4), likely crashing as the war risk premium evaporates. Gold would likely decline as safe-haven demand fades. Broader equities (S&P 500) typically rally on reduced uncertainty, whereas defense contractors (e.g., RTX) might face volatility due to anticipated lower immediate military consumption.

[Category 2] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the current geopolitical schedule, list key diplomatic milestones in the coming weeks (such as the Munich Security Conference, US-Ukraine bilateral summits, or G7 meetings) that could catalyze the signing of such a ceasefire framework, and analyze the likelihood of an "official communiqué" meeting the resolution criteria being issued during these events.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest diplomatic updates regarding "Ukraine agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework," visit the Polymarket page to analyze the odds spread and capital flow across different expiration dates (Feb 28/Mar 31/Jun 30), and assess whether the current price fully reflects the actual progress of negotiations and potential agreement risks.

[Category 1] [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain in the simplest terms why a verbal promise in an interview or a social media claim by Zelenskyy alone cannot trigger a "Yes" resolution. Detail the specific forms of "official written documents" or "joint statements" required (e.g., presidential decrees, cabinet resolutions) to prevent losses due to misunderstanding the definition of "official agreement."

[Category 2] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the current geopolitical schedule, list key diplomatic milestones in the coming weeks (such as the Munich Security Conference, US-Ukraine bilateral summits, or G7 meetings) that could catalyze the signing of such a ceasefire framework, and analyze the likelihood of an "official communiqué" meeting the resolution criteria being issued during these events.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest diplomatic updates regarding "Ukraine agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework," visit the Polymarket page to analyze the odds spread and capital flow across different expiration dates (Feb 28/Mar 31/Jun 30), and assess whether the current price fully reflects the actual progress of negotiations and potential agreement risks.

Climate & Science|$964.2k Vol|

350 days 16 hrs

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for all options (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5+). Plan Description: The sum of the Yes prices for all mutually exclusive and exhaustive options is 40 + 44 + 5.55 + 2.3 ...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of April 14, 2026, 104 days of the year have passed with no confirmed VEI 4+ eruptions. Using a P...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This falls under niche scientific prediction markets. While not as mainstream as politics or sports, 'disaster prediction' is a classic vertical in prediction markets. The general public understands the concept, but lacks the professional statistical intuition for it.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and the scientific statistical consensus (Poisson distribution). Based on historical Smithsonian GVP data, the annual average for VEI 4+ eruptions is ~0.7. With 28% of the year passed and zero events, the scientific probability of ending the year with 0 eruptions is over 60%, yet the market prices it at only 40c. Conversely, the market overprices 1 eruption (44c) and highly improbable tail events (options '4' and '5+' combine for >4c despite a near-zero true probability). This divergence is driven by retail risk-aversion premiums for extreme disaster events and a general lack of understanding of statistical probability distributions.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current odds distribution and order depth for options like '0', '1', and '5+'. Simultaneously, review Smithsonian GVP and USGS weekly reports for Jan-Feb 2026 to confirm if any occurred eruptions are currently pending VEI 4 classification, re-assessing fair value based on actual activity.

World|$15.1m Vol|

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Top Undervalued

December 31(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of April 14, 2026, with only about half a month left until the end of April, there are no credibl...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a specific political/geopolitical hypothetical. While Reza Pahlavi is a key opposition figure, his physical entry into Iran would typically imply significant regime instability or collapse, making this a speculative and non-routine political prediction.

If Pahlavi enters Iran, it almost certainly implies the collapse of the current regime, civil war, or extreme geopolitical instability. As a major oil producer and controller of the Strait of Hormuz, such an event would cause immediate and violent volatility in Crude Oil prices (panic spikes or volatility due to sanction expectations). Gold and US Yields would also react to the risk-off sentiment.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Access the Polymarket page to analyze the current order book depth and user discussions. Combine this with the latest news regarding Reza Pahlavi's itinerary, Iranian regime stability, and exiled opposition activities to re-assess the fair value, potential arbitrage opportunities, and capital lock-up risks for the 'Yes' and 'No' options.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Access the Polymarket page to analyze the current order book depth and user discussions. Combine this with the latest news regarding Reza Pahlavi's itinerary, Iranian regime stability, and exiled opposition activities to re-assess the fair value, potential arbitrage opportunities, and capital lock-up risks for the 'Yes' and 'No' options.

Politics|$2.0m Vol|

260 days 16 hrs

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option 'No' Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 95.25c. Given that Epstein's death is an established fact, the probabi...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Jeffrey Epstein's death in 2019 is an established fact confirmed by forensic autopsies, FBI investig...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a quintessential conspiracy theory market. While the circumstances of his death are controversial (the 'Epstein didn't kill himself' meme), his death is official fact. Betting that he is secretly alive and will be revealed as such is highly fringe and detached from mainstream reality.

Mainstream media and official institutions (e.g., medical examiners, FBI) unanimously agree that Jeffrey Epstein died in 2019. However, the prediction market still assigns a nearly 5% probability to the 'Yes' option, indicating that some market participants are trading based on conspiracy theories or speculating on extreme fringe outcomes. This divergence between the market price and mainstream consensus is driven entirely by irrational speculation.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'Epstein Alive' event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, specifically identifying if 'Yes' buying pressure is driven by new conspiracy narratives or pure meme speculation, and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks.

Politics|$2.0m Vol|

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Today is April 14, 2026, and Jerome Powell's current term as Chair of the Federal Reserve ends on Ma...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

[Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

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