"You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office
Culture|$235.4k Vol|
time0 s

"You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 07:57
Top Undervalued
+2.2¢
<8m(Yes)
+1.5¢
8-9m(No)

"You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As Monday's actual box office figures are about to be released, the market is extremely confident th...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Karachi on April 17?
Weather|$23.8k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Karachi on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+60¢
35°C or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading data, the prices for 34°C and 35°C or higher have increased, reflecting ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is a standard template in prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature for a specific city in Pakistan remains a relatively niche topic that falls outside mainstream public interest.
Movers
Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '35°C or higher' rose from 26c to 50c, as approaching settlement times and weather forecasts indicated a higher likelihood of extreme temperatures, prompting traders to buy this option. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '34°C' increased from 14c to 32c, driven by temperature forecasts trending around 34°C, increasing its probability. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '33°C' peaked at 31c before falling to 21.5c, showing fluctuating market assessments of its likelihood. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 19:03:18, the price of '31°C' dropped from 14c to 0.75c, as actual temperature expectations are significantly higher, making this option highly unlikely. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, prices for '29°C' and below all dropped below 1c, as such low temperatures are extremely unlikely given the current season and forecasts.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Weather|$49.6k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+89.7¢
26°C or below(No)
+34.9¢
29°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport on April ...
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Movers
Between 14:43 and 16:53 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 28.5c to 37.5c (later retracing to 31.5c), driven by updated weather forecast data approaching the resolution time that significantly increased market expectations for this temperature range. Between 11:28 and 14:43 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 27°C option plummeted from 22.5c to 8c (later recovering to 13.5c), as the forecasted temperature median shifted upward, drastically reducing the expected probability of lower temperatures.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?
Weather|$42.6k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+69.7¢
16°C(No)
+19.7¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast trends and prediction market price movements, the expected high...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature of a specific city is a standard proposition in prediction markets, but it still carries a moderate level of novelty for the general public who wouldn't naturally ponder or bet on such localized daily data.
Movers
From April 15 to April 16, 2026, the price of the 15°C option surged from 20c to 32.5c, and the 16°C option surged from 20c to 31c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 28c to 12.5c. This is due to updated meteorological forecasts closer to the expiration date indicating a significant downward revision in Cape Town's expected high temperatures due to a cold front.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 17?
Weather|$38.1k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+63.8¢
33°C(No)
+29.8¢
34°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts, the highest temperature at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport in Jakarta...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a standard derivative play in prediction markets, but the general public rarely makes specific forecasts for such highly granular local data.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 31°C plummeted from 20.5c to 4c, and 37°C or higher crashed from 16c to 0.4c. Other non-core options such as 35°C, 36°C, 29°C, and 30°C also saw drops exceeding 10c. This occurred because as the resolution date approaches, weather forecasts became much more precise, ruling out extreme temperature scenarios and causing funds to concentrate rapidly on the core 32°C-34°C probability range.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Milan on April 17?
Weather|$50.6k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Milan on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
24°C(No)
+6.5¢
23°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature for Milan Malpensa on April 17 is exp...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is a highly common daily topic, betting on the exact highest temperature down to a whole degree at a specific airport station remains a relatively niche and quantitative activity in prediction markets.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 24°C surged from 26.5c to 44.5c, and 23°C surged from 14c to 41.5c, while 22°C plummeted from 19.5c to 3.5c. This is because as the date approaches, weather forecasting models have become more concentrated and revised their expectations for the high temperature upward to the 23-24°C range.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
<8m
YesNo
92.8¢
7.2¢
95¢
+2.2¢
8-9m
YesNo
6.5¢
93.5¢
95¢
+1.5¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the <8m option surged from 53.45c to 94.55c, while the 8-9m option crashed from 46.5c to 6c. This was driven by increasing certainty as the weekend concluded that the exact $8.0M Sunday estimate will be revised downwards in Monday's actuals, pushing the final gross below the $8 million mark. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the <8m option surged further from 56c to 82c, while the 8-9m option crashed from 44c to 17.5c. This was driven by Sunday's studio estimates placing the weekend box office at exactly $8.0 million. The market strongly expects the actuals reported on Monday to be revised downwards. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the 8-9m option crashed from 75c to 38.5c before rebounding to 56.5c, while the <8m option surged from 27.6c to 52.95c before settling at 42.75c. This was driven by Saturday evening estimates showing slightly weaker legs, suggesting the final tally will hover dangerously close to the $8 million threshold, triggering extreme volatility. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 8-9m option price further surged from approx 59.5c to 75c, while the 9-10m option crashed from 34.5c to 6.5c, and the <8m option dropped from a peak of 56c down to approx 17.5c. This was driven by real-time Saturday projections stabilizing the weekend estimate firmly in the $8M-$9M range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 8-9m option surged from 27c to a peak of 63c before stabilizing around 55c, while the <8m option crashed from 56c down to approx 22c. This was driven by better-than-feared Friday opening day estimates. April 10, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the <8m option dropped significantly from 56c to approx 34.6c, while the 8-9m option surged from 27c to 45c. This was driven by Friday's early estimates coming in slightly better than the extremely pessimistic Thursday preview numbers. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, as the film officially opened, the market experienced a sharp reversal. The <8m option surged from 25.8c to 56c, while the 9-10m option crashed from 34.5c to 12c, indicating extremely weak Thursday preview numbers. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, as the release date approached and pre-sale data updated, expectations swung wildly. The 8-9m option crashed from 48c to 18.5c on April 9 before rebounding; the 9-10m option surged from 16c to 33.5c on the same day. This reflects the volatility of early preview data. April 6, 2026 - April 8, 2026, prices for all options experienced severe volatility due to the initial AMM liquidity pool distributing prices uniformly around 40c, which were subsequently corrected by real traders.

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