This market directly tracks Crude Oil prices, serving as a direct hedge for energy portfolios (Score 5). Significant oil price movements typically impact inflation expectations, thereby affecting US 10Y Yields, and act as a macro cost factor that can cause minor to moderate inverse movements or sector divergence in the S&P 500.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of [↓ $80] plummeted from 59c to 47.5c, as bullish sentiment in crude oil continued to dominate the market and downside risk expectations weakened. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of [↑ $140] surged from 21.5c to 34.5c, as bullish sentiment erupted once again and market expectations for a spot upside breakout strengthened significantly after a brief consolidation. April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, after the downside panic eased, the crude oil market saw a slight bearish recovery. The price of [↓ $80] rebounded from 53c to 58c, and [↓ $70] from 26c to 32c; meanwhile, [↑ $115] retreated from 62.45c to 56.1c, as the spot market met resistance after a short-term rebound and bearish sentiment partially regained dominance. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the crude oil market experienced a violent reversal. The price of [↑ $115] plummeted from 91.5c to 50c, [↑ $120] crashed from 84.5c to 46.5c, while [↓ $80] surged from 48c to 70c, as the extreme bullish sentiment bubble burst, likely due to geopolitical cooling or spot pullbacks. April 5, 2026 - April 7, 2026, prices of various options maintained high-volatility fluctuations at elevated levels, indicating market consolidation at the highs without single-sided moves over 10c. April 1, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] surged from 62.5c to 89c, and [↑ $120] from 47.5c to 78.5c, due to continued explosive bullish sentiment in crude oil. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, [↑ $120] plummeted from 63.5c to 47.5c due to profit-taking and spot market corrections. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, [↑ $110] surged from 69.5c to 86c driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts.

This market is directly anchored to Gold futures prices, offering a perfect correlation for hedging underlying Gold exposure. Significant moves in Gold typically drive correlated volatility in Silver and often show inverse correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields, providing clear macro trading utility.

Silver has an extremely high positive correlation with Gold. If Silver triggers extreme strike prices (e.g., $120 or $35), it typically implies a major macro inflationary or deflationary shock, causing Gold prices to move significantly. Additionally, Silver prices are strongly inversely driven by the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields. This market serves as a direct hedge for commodity volatility.

2026-04-11 to 2026-04-13, the price of ↓ $65 rose from 43.5c to 56.5c, and ↓ $55 rose from 16.5c to 26.5c, as silver prices faced strong renewed pullback pressure after the previous rebound, causing market expectations of touching these downside support levels in the short term to heat up rapidly. 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-11, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 61c to 43.5c, and ↓ $55 dropped from 31c to 16.5c. The reason is that silver prices rebounded strongly after bottoming out, significantly reducing the probability of hitting deep downside targets in the short term. 2026-04-06 to 2026-04-08, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 62.5c to 51c. The reason is that silver prices showed a phased stabilization and rebound after hitting the bottom, and the market further downgraded the risk probability of continued deep declines in the short term. 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-02, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 77.5c to 62c, ↓ $60 dropped from 58.5c to 36.5c, and ↓ $55 dropped from 41.5c to 23c. The reason is that silver prices continued their strong rebound, and the market further drastically priced out extreme downside risks, bursting the put tail pricing bubble. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-01, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 74c to 62.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 58.5c to 43c, as silver prices continued to rebound and stabilize, further pricing out extreme downside risks. 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-27, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 81c to 74.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 61c to 52.5c, as silver prices continued to stabilize and the market further priced out extreme downside risks in the near term. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-25, the price of ↓ $65 crashed from 85c to 65.5c, and ↓ $60 crashed from 65.5c to 49.5c. The reason is that market panic subsided further, and expectations of silver stabilizing and rebounding in the short term strengthened, significantly reducing the probability of breaking down below recent lows. 2026-03-21 to 2026-03-24, the price of ↓ $45 crashed from 42c to 20c, as market panic subsided after the weekend. Traders reassessed the extreme probability of silver 'halving' to $45 in the short term, leading to a burst in the premium of deep OTM put options. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-24, the price of ↑ $120 rebounded from 15c to 22.5c, driven by the US delaying military strikes on Iran. This eased some liquidity pressure, prompting bets on a potential retaliatory bounce in silver prices after the oversold conditions.

This market tracks Gold directly, making it a primary hedge for precious metals portfolios or inflation exposure. Significant moves in Gold are strongly inversely correlated with Real Rates (US 10Y) and the Dollar (DXY), and highly positively correlated with Silver.

The US average gasoline price is highly correlated with crude oil prices. If gas prices hit extreme highs (like $4.50 or $5.00), it typically indicates a significant supply shock or demand surge in the crude oil market, making this a direct tool for hedging against crude oil price volatility.

April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the ↓ $3.85 option surged from 9c to 30.5c, likely due to rumors of potential US government intervention (such as releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) or signals of a temporary de-escalation in the Middle East, prompting some capital to bet on a short-term pullback in gas prices. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, due to the sharp escalation of the Iran conflict disrupting global crude supply chains, and AAA reporting the national average gas price crossing $4 for the first time since 2022, the prices for the ↑ $4.05 and ↑ $4.15 options surged by more than 15c.

While the core rule relies on CME settlement prices, the definition of 'Active Month' introduces complexity. The rule specifies the Active Month is the nearest delivery-cycle month excluding the spot month. For end of June 2026, determining which contract is 'Active' is crucial. Typically, the July 2026 contract would be active, but if it passes its First Position Date (often late the prior month or early in the delivery month), it becomes non-active, rolling the active status to September. This rollover timing can be confusing for non-professional traders, presenting a distinct rule risk.

This prediction market is directly linked to actual Silver futures prices, making it a perfect hedging tool in itself. If the implied probability in this market diverges significantly from actual futures market pricing, it creates an arbitrage opportunity (Score 3). Additionally, Silver is highly correlated with Gold, the Dollar Index (DXY), and real rates (inverse to US 10Y Yields), though these assets are less impacted by Silver's specific price moves and are more driven by shared macro drivers.

Apr 6, 2026 - Apr 8, 2026, the price of '$85 Yes' dropped significantly from 32c to 25.5c, after a sharp fall from 40.5c on Apr 5, reflecting receding speculative enthusiasm for overly high target prices as the delivery month approaches, or pricing anomalies caused by internal platform liquidity issues. Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 1, 2026, the price of '$80 Yes' surged from 32.5c to 49.5c, driven by the rotation of safe-haven funds in the precious metals market and rebounding inflation expectations, significantly boosting confidence that silver will break $80. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the price of '$90 Yes' surged from 20.25c to 31.15c, driven by some funds betting on a short-term rebound. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the price of '$85 Yes' surged from 31c to 42.5c, also pushed by short-term funds. Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, the price of '$80 Yes' plunged from 51c to 33.5c, driven by the Fed holding rates steady and signaling hawkishness, which caused silver spot prices to break the $74 support level and triggered panic selling. Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, the price of '$85 Yes' fell from 47.5c to 34c, similarly impacted by expectations of tightening macro liquidity.

There is clear pricing irrationality in the market. Logically, the probability of silver breaking a higher resistance level (e.g., $90) must be lower than breaking a lower one (e.g., $85), but current market pricing shows the exact opposite ($90 Yes is priced higher than $85 Yes). This indicates the prediction market is severely skewed by irrational capital or fragmented liquidity, diverging from objective probability logic.

This event is a direct derivative of crude oil prices. For investors holding energy inventory or energy stocks (like XOM), this market offers a perfect hedging tool. If crude oil settles unexpectedly in an extreme bracket (e.g., <$42 or >$84), it would have a significant impact on global inflation expectations (affecting US yields) and the energy sector.

From Apr 6, 2026 to Apr 8, 2026, the price of the >$84 option dropped from 68c to 54c, while the $77-$84 option surged from 16c to 24c, as short-term risk aversion cooled, reducing expectations of extreme high prices and shifting capital to the next highest tier. From Mar 9, 2026 to Mar 11, 2026, the price of the >$84 option crashed from 64c to 38.5c, while the $49-$56 option fell from ~13c to 3.5c, suggesting a sharp correction from previous panic buying or a liquidity shock. From Feb 21, 2026 to Feb 22, 2026, the price of the <$42 option surged from 10c to 38c, an anomaly likely caused by algorithm failure or liquidity dislocation driven by panic. From Feb 9, 2026 to Feb 10, 2026, the price of the >$84 option surged from 25c to 36.5c, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparking supply disruption fears.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market assigns a very high probability (63%) to oil settling above $84, reflecting strong retail and speculator fears regarding geopolitical risks and short-term supply shocks. In contrast, mainstream investment banks and institutional macro forecasts generally expect oil to stabilize in the $70-$80 range, citing OPEC+ spare capacity and moderating global demand. This divergence indicates that the prediction market is currently driven by short-term panic sentiment, deviating from traditional supply-demand fundamental models.

This prediction market corresponds directly to Crude Oil futures prices, creating a very strong correlation with 'Crude Oil' itself (Score 4). Oil price fluctuations significantly impact the performance of energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Additionally, as a key input for inflation expectations, oil prices indirectly affect US 10Y Yields and the DXY, though the impact is more moderate and context-dependent.

This market directly corresponds to the price movement of Gold futures, offering high direct hedging value (Score 4). Additionally, significant fluctuations in Gold prices are typically inversely correlated with the Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields (US 10Y Yield), reflecting macro inflation expectations or risk-off sentiment.

Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 12, 2026, the $5,800 option price plunged from 24.5c to 13.2c. As the expiration date draws nearer, implied volatility for gold has compressed, significantly reducing market expectations of an extreme bullish breakout above $5,800. Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 12, 2026, the $5,400 option price plunged from 38.0c to 25.0c, for the same reason. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 12, 2026, the $4,800 option price surged from 51.0c to 63.5c. Gold prices found solid support at recent highs, and market confidence in maintaining the $4,800 threshold strengthened substantially. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 12, 2026, the $4,600 option price surged from 61.5c to 73.0c, for the same reason. Apr 5, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, the $4,600 option price surged from 54.5c to 69.5c. As the expiration date approaches, gold prices remain solid at higher levels, increasing market confidence that it will not fall below $4,600. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, the $5,600 option price surged from 13.5c to 31.0c, likely due to market overreaction to geopolitical risks or inflation data, causing a spike in implied volatility for call options. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, the $5,400 option price surged from 19.5c to 33.5c, for the same reason. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, the $6,000 option price surged from 16.65c to 27.8c, for the same reason. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, the $6,200 option price surged from 8.95c to 22.85c, for the same reason. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, the $6,500 option price surged from 6.65c to 19.7c, for the same reason. Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, the $4,800 option price plunged from 69.5c to 51.0c. The reason is a sell-off in gold futures triggered by a strengthening dollar and hawkish Fed signals amid inflation fears from the 'Iran war' oil shock. Confidence in gold holding the $4,800 support collapsed within 24 hours. Feb 24, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026, the $8,000 option price surged from 3.5c to 21.85c due to a liquidity flash crash and irrational buying on thin order books.