Background
Politics|$9,403 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

WI-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+12¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+11¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District (WI-05) is a solidly safe Republican seat with a Cook PVI of ...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$9,303 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

FL-26 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+7¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
FL-26 (covering western Miami-Dade and Collier counties) remains a solid Republican stronghold (Cook...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$9,254 Vol|
time47 days 16 hrs

SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+37¢
Nikki Gronli(Yes)
+32¢
Scott Schlagel(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on market conditions and previous analysis, Billy Mawhiney has withdrawn from the race, render...
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Divergence
The market prices Nikki Gronli at around 64.5c, but with her only viable competitor having withdrawn and the filing deadline passed, she has essentially locked up the nomination. Mainstream political consensus and factual fundamentals suggest her probability should be near 100%. The current prediction market pricing exhibits significant lag and mispricing (likely due to low liquidity or lack of attention from market participants).
AI Analysis
Politics|$9,157 Vol|
time33 days 16 hrs

Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+2¢
Jim Risch(Yes)
+0.7¢
Joe Evans(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the May 19th primary approaches (only about 46 days left), incumbent Senator Jim Risch's advantag...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$9,017 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

VT-AL House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+4.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Vermont (VT-AL) is one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the nation, having not elected a Repu...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$8,962 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

South Carolina Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+8¢
Republican(Yes)
+6.5¢
Democrat(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
South Carolina is a traditional Republican stronghold (deep red state), with the GOP winning by abou...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$8,945 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

NC-07 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+14¢
Democratic Party(No)
+13.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
2026 is a midterm election year, which typically favors the opposition party. Furthermore, NC-07 is ...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$8,910 Vol|
time106 days 16 hrs

South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
Annie Andrews(Yes)
+4.4¢
Catherine Fleming Bruce(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With the passing of the March 30th South Carolina candidate filing deadline, the tail risk of the pr...
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Rule Risk
There is a significant 'Uncontested Trap'. The rules state 'If no... Primary takes place... resolve to Other'. In many jurisdictions, if a candidate runs unopposed, the primary election is cancelled and they are nominated by acclamation. In this scenario, bets on a specific named candidate would settle as Loss (and 'Other' as Win), even if that candidate effectively became the nominee, because the physical primary event did not occur.
AI Analysis
Politics|$8,870 Vol|
time194 days 4 hrs

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+26.5¢
Olivia Chow(No)
+14¢
Ana Bailão(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the incumbent mayor of Toronto, Olivia Chow holds a significant incumbency advantage, giving her ...
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Divergence
The prediction market currently prices the incumbent mayor, Olivia Chow (Yes 28c), lower than Ana Bailão (Yes 34c). This diverges from mainstream expectations, where an incumbent generally holds a strong advantage for re-election. This discrepancy may be caused by low liquidity in the market or poor pricing structures leaving massive arbitrage opportunities.
AI Analysis
Elections|$8,844 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

SC-04 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+8.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
SC-04 (South Carolina's 4th Congressional District) is a solid Republican stronghold (Cook PVI R+11)...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$8,825 Vol|
time33 days 16 hrs

GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+5¢
Everton Blair Jr.(Yes)
+3.8¢
Jeffree Fauntleroy Sr.(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of 'Yes' prices has normalized from the previously abnormal >370% to a healthy ~103%, indica...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$8,784 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

CA-10 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+6.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
California's 10th congressional district (CA-10) is a severely safe Democratic stronghold with a Coo...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$8,768 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

NY-07 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+4.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NY-07 is one of the safest Democratic districts in the country (Cook PVI D+25), covering deep-blue n...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$8,737 Vol|
time201 days 16 hrs

NJ-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7¢
Republican Party(No)
+7¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NJ-01 is a deep-blue safe district in New Jersey (Cook PVI D+10), where incumbent Donald Norcross en...
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AI Analysis

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