Background
Elections|$2,331 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

KY-02 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
KY-02 is a 'Solid Republican' district (Cook PVI approx. R+21) where Republicans consistently win by...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$2,313 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

RI-02 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+1¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+0.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Incumbent Seth Magaziner (D) won re-election decisively in 2024. The current environment is a midter...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$2,287 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

OH-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+10¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+8.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
OH-05 is a staunchly Republican district (Cook PVI R+15) with demographics and voting history that h...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$2,252 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

MA-06 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+4¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
MA-06 is a solid blue district (Cook PVI D+11). The 2026 midterm environment heavily favors the oppo...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$2,248 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

MI-09 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+8¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
MI-09 is one of Michigan's safest Republican districts (Cook PVI R+16). Incumbent Lisa McClain, the ...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$2,247 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

Oregon Senate Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6¢
Democrat(Yes)
+5¢
Republican(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Oregon is a Solid Blue state (Cook PVI D+6) and its fundamentals remain unchanged. Incumbent Democra...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$2,235 Vol|
time139 days 1 hrs

MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+32.3¢
Andrew Zylberfink(No)
+9¢
Patrick Roath(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While incumbent Stephen Lynch (since 2001) remains politically active (e.g., Acting Ranking Member o...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$2,202 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

MD-07 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+4.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
MD-07 (Maryland's 7th Congressional District) is a historically deep-blue district (Cook PVI D+30) a...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$2,196 Vol|
time40 days 1 hrs

Venice Mayoral Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
Simone Venturini(No)
+8.2¢
Giovanni Andrea Martini(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to a February 2026 Demetra poll, centre-right candidate Simone Venturini leads with 34%, f...
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Divergence
There is a severe divergence between market pricing and mainstream polls. Polymarket assigns a 49% probability to Martini (polling at 12%), and over 40% to fringe candidates like Del Zotto and Boldrin. This is completely disconnected from the actual two-horse race between Venturini and Martella. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities exceeds 200%, representing a blatant deviation from logic and reality.
AI Analysis
Economy|$2,183 Vol|
time83 days 1 hrs

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?

Top Undervalued
+30.5¢
No Change(Yes)
+27.5¢
Increase(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the RBNZ's April 8, 2026 monetary policy review, the OCR was held at 2.25% [1, 2, 5]. H...
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Hedging
NZD/USD
The RBNZ's Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision directly and significantly affects the valuation of the New Zealand Dollar. An unexpected decision (e.g., a surprise hike or cut) would cause a notable tradable short-term price shock in forex pairs like NZD/USD (qualifying for a score of 3). However, given New Zealand's relatively small economy, the spillover effect on core global broad assets like the S&P 500 is negligible.
Divergence
The market is currently pricing 'Decrease' at 27.5 cents, implying a >25% chance of a rate cut. However, recent consensus forecasts and the RBNZ's official statement on April 8 explicitly noted that rate cuts were not discussed, and the policy bias is skewed towards hiking (potentially as early as May or July) or holding steady due to rising inflation [2, 4]. The prediction market significantly overprices the likelihood of a cut, likely due to a lagged reaction to the latest hawkish central bank communications.
AI Analysis
Politics|$2,181 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

IA-04 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+9¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+7.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
IA-04 (Cook PVI R+16) is Iowa's most solid Republican stronghold. Given the deep partisan lean, the ...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$2,149 Vol|
time15 days 1 hrs

Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?

Top Undervalued
+26¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market currently assigns a relatively high probability (~37.5%) to a member of the US Joint Chie...
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Exotics
Predicting high-level political turnover is standard in prediction markets, but betting specifically on the departure of top US military leadership within a short, specific timeframe is somewhat niche, likely reflecting specific ongoing political dynamics.
AI Analysis
Politics|$2,112 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

PA-11 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+8.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District (PA-11) is a traditional Republican stronghold. Authorita...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$2,103 Vol|
time202 days 1 hrs

LA-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+8¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+6.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
LA-05 is one of the most solid Republican districts in the nation (Cook PVI R+18). Despite incumbent...
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AI Analysis

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