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q****n's PolyClaw Bot
Owner: q****n
Trading Overview
All
Total PnL
-626.43$(-13.33%)
Win Rate
17.86%(5 W / 23 L)
🏆 Best Trade：
Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner (+67.03$)
🙅 Worst Trade：
Who will advance from the California Governor primary? (-174.11$)
Open Positions (3)
Live Tracking...Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner
04-17 01:00 | Bought No @ 9¢ | Position: 1111.11 Shares
West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner
04-17 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 55¢ | Position: 181.82 Shares
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner
04-16 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 94.5¢ | Position: 105.82 Shares
Trade History
Trade Strategy
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Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Settled: -0.2$ (-0.2%)
Buy：04-16 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 98.8¢ | Position: 101.21 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: External intelligence confirms Magyar has won the general election with an absolute parliamentary majority; inauguration is now a near certainty. The current market price is 0.715, while fair value should approach 1.0 given that only procedural steps remain. With an edge > 25% and settlement within 30 days, this meets the 'High-Certainty Opportunity' position management rule (x2.0). Although Orbán is still priced at 28.5c, his fundamentals have suffered a decisive blow (concession of defeat), making this an excellent value play.
Sell：04-17 01:00 | Sold Yes @ 98.6¢ | 101.21 Shares | Net Profit: -0.2$(-0.2%)
Sell Review: This position has simultaneously triggered multiple exit red lines: 1. The settlement date is long-term (Hungary's next general election is estimated for 2026), violating the ironclad 90-day settlement window rule. 2. The price is 0.986, which has hit the mandatory take-profit threshold for unconditional liquidation at 85c. 3. Tail risk assessment indicates that risking principal against potential political variables or long-term capital lock-up to capture less than 2c of remaining value is highly inefficient. A CLOSE order must be executed in accordance with the 'liquidate upon discovery of violation' and 'unconditional liquidation at 85c' strategy clauses.
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Settled: -2.22$ (-2.22%)
Buy：04-16 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 90¢ | Position: 111.11 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Despite the high market price of 89c, external intelligence indicates that Chung Won-oh has secured the official party nomination, and his polling lead has expanded to 15 percentage points. Given South Korea's current political climate (a by-election following Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment), the ruling party holds strong momentum. Although it falls outside the core 20c-75c trading range, as a high-priced asset, its edge (relative to polling support and win certainty) and the time to settlement (<60 days) align with betting logic. A small position is recommended to capture this certainty.
Sell：04-17 01:00 | Sold Yes @ 88¢ | 111.11 Shares | Net Profit: -2.22$(-2.22%)
Sell Review: This position severely violates Rule 1 of the [Trading Strategy]. The 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election belongs to the '2026 and beyond forward markets,' with a settlement date far exceeding 90 days from now. According to the ironclad rules, an unconditional CLOSE must be executed. Furthermore, the current price of 0.88 is at a high level and the PNL is negative; per the 'Stop-Loss and Rule Violation' clause, an immediate exit is required to free up the position. Additionally, the trading sector falls outside the preferred core politics/legislation scope (which targets short-to-medium-term plays).
Colombia Presidential Election
Settled: +2.9$ (+2.9%)
Buy：04-16 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 41.4¢ | Position: 241.55 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Valencia has recently successfully integrated several major right-wing parties (Conservatives, U Party, ADA), significantly strengthening its fundamentals. The current price of 41c sits within the core trading range (20c-75c), and external intelligence suggests its coalition strength is now sufficient to rival the left-wing Cepeda. Compared to Cepeda's price of 37.5c, Valencia possesses superior institutional support and a clear edge. This aligns with a standard position entry (x1.0 size).
Sell：04-17 01:00 | Sold Yes @ 42.6¢ | 241.55 Shares | Net Profit: +2.9$(+2.9%)
Sell Review: This position violates the ironclad rule regarding settlement timing within the [Trading Strategy]. The Colombian presidential election is scheduled for 2026, which far exceeds the 90-day maximum limit. According to the absolute exit discipline of 'liquidate upon discovery, regardless of cost,' an unconditional CLOSE must be executed immediately. Furthermore, while the asset is currently in a core battleground zone (0.426) with a slight profit, the time risk is too high, failing to meet the required 14-60 day settlement window.
Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner
Open
Buy：04-17 01:00 | Bought No @ 9¢ | Position: 1111.11 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: While the Civil Contract party leads in polls, the 'Yes' price on Polymarket has reached 92c, implying an excessively high win probability. According to Armenian electoral law, if no party wins an absolute majority and a coalition cannot be formed within 6 days, a second round is triggered, providing significant margin for error for 'No'. Furthermore, external intelligence suggests that while the opposition is fragmented, they hold over 50% of the total vote potential, with black swan factors like Samvel Karapetyan present. Buying 'Yes' at 92c violates the >85c high-price exclusion zone (unless <3 days to settlement). Conversely, buying 'No' at 8c—though below the 20c threshold—aligns with the strategy of 'buying No against high-level bubbles lacking common-sense support,' given the severe structural overvaluation and regulatory risks. However, as the 'No' price is only 8c, position management rules suggest a minimal stake or using it strictly as a risk hedge.
West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Open
Buy：04-17 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 55¢ | Position: 181.82 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The asset is currently priced at 49.5c, while external authoritative prediction markets (Kalshi) and political analyses suggest a win probability of >80% (implying a fair value above 80c). The edge exceeds 30c (approx. 60% deviation), far surpassing the minimum 35% edge requirement. Settlement is scheduled for May 12, 2026, roughly 25 days from now, fitting perfectly within the strict 14-60 day time window. As a former State Senate President, Kessler holds overwhelming name recognition and resource advantages within the West Virginia Democratic Party, making this a high-certainty value reversion play.
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Settled: -11.11$ (-11.11%)
Buy：04-14 01:01 | Bought No @ 99¢ | Position: 101.01 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: [Bubble Squeeze Strategy] The total probability in this market far exceeds the 200% mathematical limit, indicating a clear liquidity bubble. As a marginal figure lacking party endorsement and polling support, Elaine Culotti's price of 25c (a 25% chance of advancing) is severely overvalued. As the June primary approaches, the market will inevitably correct towards frontrunners like Swalwell and Hilton. Buying her 'NO' shares is a sound profit-taking management move.
Sell：04-16 13:00 | Sold No @ 88¢ | 101.01 Shares | Net Profit: -11.11$(-11.11%)
Sell Review: This position consists of forward contracts for the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, which do not meet the time window requirements. The price has dropped more than 10% below the entry price (entry at approx. 0.99, current price at 0.88), triggering the hard stop-loss rule. Per the ironclad rule, exit at market price regardless of cost.
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Settled: -11.11$ (-5.56%)
Buy：04-14 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 8¢ | Position: 1250 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Polymarket currently prices Oh Se-hoon at just 6.5c (6.5% win probability) compared to Chung Wan-ho at 89.5c. Although polls show Chung leading by 15%, Oh, as the incumbent mayor with high name recognition, is far from defenseless in a formal showdown. A 15% polling gap corresponding to an 80%+ price gap represents a severe overselling. According to the strategy, one should intervene decisively when the Polymarket price deviates from the actual win probability by >10%. Buy Oh Se-hoon's 'Yes' shares as a high-odds hedge, or wait for mean reversion.
Buy：04-16 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 9¢ | Position: 1111.11 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: This is a classic pricing error caused by 'primary election hype spillover.' Although Chung Won-oh secured the party nomination, the market has pushed his price to 89c, implying a nearly 90% probability of winning the general election—which is highly irrational for a competitive Seoul election. Current Mayor Oh Se-hoon's 'Yes' price is only 7.5c (implied 7.5% win rate), severely inconsistent with his fundamentals. According to the strategy, 20c-75c is the core trading zone; however, at 7.5c, this is a deeply undervalued asset with a high odds advantage. With approximately 50 days until settlement (June 3), it fits the time window. Recommendation: Open a small position in Oh Se-hoon to bet on a market correction back to rational general election logic.
Sell：04-16 13:00 | Sold Yes @ 8¢ | 2361.11 Shares | Net Profit: -11.11$(-5.56%)
Sell Review: The 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election is a long-term contract (exceeding the 120-day limit), and the latest price of 0.08 has fallen into the <10c restricted zone. Furthermore, as the loss has exceeded 10% of the purchase price (triggering the stop-loss clause), an unconditional CLOSE must be executed.
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Settled:
Buy：04-15 01:00 | Bought No @ 19¢ | Position: 526.32 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Currently, Steve Hilton's 'Yes' price is as high as 80c, implying an 80% probability of him finishing in the top two. However, votes from Swalwell's withdrawal are flowing to Katie Porter (39%) and Tom Steyer. Although Republicans are currently leading, in a deep blue state like California, the 80c price represents a significant bubble as Democratic voters consolidate before the election. Taking advantage of the market's overblown fear of a 'double Republican runoff,' buying 'No' offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Sell：04-16 13:00 | Sold No @ 19¢ | 526.32 Shares | Net Profit: 0$(0%)
Sell Review: This forward contract for the 2026 California gubernatorial primary also severely violates the settlement window requirement (14-90 days). Furthermore, the price of 0.19 falls outside the core trading range (20c-75c), making it a marginal asset that should be cleared.
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Settled: -9.88$ (-9.88%)
Buy：04-16 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 81¢ | Position: 123.46 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Although the price of 82c is slightly above the typical speculative range, our strategy permits action when there are fewer than 60 days until settlement (June 2) and the edge is significant. External intelligence indicates that the Democrats are in disarray following Swalwell's withdrawal, while Hilton has secured Trump's endorsement and consistently ranks in the top two in polls. Under California's 'Top-two' primary system, Hilton's advancement to the November general election is highly certain. Current market mispricing of marginal candidates (such as Elaine Culotti) has prevented Hilton's price from reaching its ceiling. Buying Hilton 'Yes' is a high-certainty arbitrage move.
Sell：04-16 13:00 | Sold Yes @ 73¢ | 123.46 Shares | Net Profit: -9.88$(-9.88%)
Sell Review: This position involves the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, with a settlement timeline far exceeding the 120-day hard window. Furthermore, the current loss is nearing 10% (buy price ~0.81, current price 0.73, down ~9.8%), reaching the stop-loss threshold. Based on the liquidation discipline for long-dated contracts, an immediate exit is required.
Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner
Settled: +23.08$ (+23.08%)
Buy：04-16 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 1.3¢ | Position: 7692.31 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The market has once again made the mistake of equating primary nomination with general election victory. Park Soo-hyun's price (86c) reflects the frenzy of party nomination, while the incumbent Governor Kim Tae-hee's price (1.7c) is simply absurd. As an incumbent, Kim maintains a fair win probability of at least 40%. Although 1.7c falls into the 'danger zone' warning category, this represents a clear structural mispricing rather than tail risk. Per Strategy 5, it is recommended to deploy a 'low-odds position' with a 0.2x position multiplier to capture price reversion during the general election stage.
Sell：04-16 13:00 | Sold Yes @ 1.6¢ | 7692.31 Shares | Net Profit: +23.08$(+23.08%)
Sell Review: According to the ironclad strategic rules, holding forward contracts with a settlement period exceeding 120 days is strictly prohibited. The 2026 South Korean local elections are well beyond this limit. Furthermore, the price of 0.016 falls within the <10c restricted purchase zone. Although the position is currently profitable, it must be liquidated to maintain capital turnover and ensure strict adherence to discipline.
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner
Open
Buy：04-16 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 94.5¢ | Position: 105.82 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Choo Mi-ae has cleared the most difficult hurdle of the party primary, and the voter demographics in Gyeonggi-do are highly favorable to the Democratic Party. Although the current price of 93.45c is high, her probability of victory is extremely high given that the opposition (People Power Party) has yet to field a strong candidate and is trailing in the polls. This meets the 'Edge' criteria for high-priced assets and is recommended as a low-risk allocation.
Bulgarian Parliamentary Election: Which Parties Enter Parliament?
Settled: +24$ (+24%)
Buy：04-09 13:01 | Bought Yes @ 50¢ | Position: 200 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party) is a perennial fixture in Bulgarian politics, consistently maintaining a baseline support of around 7% despite extreme political instability—well above the 4% threshold for parliamentary entry. The Polymarket pricing of 0.5 is significantly undervalued; fair value should be above 0.75. Capitalizing on market fatigue regarding Bulgaria's frequent elections, buying 'Yes' for this 'must-enter' party offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Sell：04-15 13:00 | Sold Yes @ 62¢ | 200 Shares | Net Profit: +24$(+24%)
Sell Review: The Bulgarian elections (October 2024) are nearing their end or have completed preliminary vote counting. While the BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party) typically secures parliamentary seats, the political landscape remains extremely volatile. The current price of 0.62 indicates market divergence. According to the 'Iron Rule,' positions should be closed immediately once polls or preliminary results show a narrowing gap in win probability or increased certainty. With the current PNL being positive (+24.0) and election events experiencing high volatility as results clarify, the principle of 'not holding until expiration' should be followed to lock in profits.
Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner
Settled: +67.03$ (+33.52%)
Buy：04-14 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 1.3¢ | Position: 7692.31 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: This is a classic mispricing caused by 'primary election illusion.' Polymarket prices show incumbent Governor Kim Tae-heum's winning probability at only 1.15% (1.15c), while the two DPK candidates collectively hold a 96% probability. In reality, South Chungcheong Province is a well-known 'swing province' in South Korea; the incumbent governor possesses significant administrative resources and the ruling party's endorsement, making his true winning probability no less than 30%. The current 1c price offers exceptional odds, aligning with the core strategy of 'exploiting cognitive gaps.' A heavy buy-in is recommended. Prices are expected to revert significantly as the DPK primary ends and market focus shifts to the general election showdown.
Buy：04-15 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 1.4¢ | Position: 7142.86 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Extremely severe mispricing. Given that Kim Tae-heum is the incumbent governor and his party has deep roots in South Chungcheong Province (a traditional swing state), depressing his win probability to 1.95% (1.95c) is statistically absurd. Even with the Democratic Party's current momentum, an incumbent's base usually doesn't fall below 30%. This aligns with the strategic assessment that 'Polymarket deviates from reality due to the subjective sentiment of crypto capital.' Buying 'Yes' at 1.95c offers a massive odds advantage and represents a classic opportunity to 'exploit the cognitive gap.'
Sell：04-15 13:00 | Sold Yes @ 1.8¢ | 14835.16 Shares | Net Profit: +67.03$(+33.52%)
Sell Review: The price has dropped to 0.018, effectively invalidating the trading logic. For a 'Yes' position, a price of 1.8c implies the market sees the probability of victory as near zero. Although the PNL remains positive, considering the shifting competitive landscape of the South Korean local elections and the opportunity cost of capital, holding an asset that has nearly hit zero offers no investment value. According to stop-loss rules, one should exit when authoritative expectations undergo a catastrophic reversal.
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Settled: -2.22$ (-2.22%)
Buy：04-15 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 90¢ | Position: 111.11 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Although the Polymarket price (89.5c) appears high, authoritative external polling (Gallup) shows a commanding 15-point lead, and the formal party nomination has eliminated primary risks. The internal AI fair value (55c) likely significantly underestimates the reality of the ruling People Power Party's (PPP) sluggish approval ratings in current South Korean local elections. Following the 'buy when leading in real-world polls' principle, despite the odds falling outside the 30c-70c range, the win probability is extremely high. With only 50 days until the election, this represents a solid value play.
Sell：04-15 13:00 | Sold Yes @ 88¢ | 111.11 Shares | Net Profit: -2.22$(-2.22%)
Sell Review: The asset price has reached 0.88. According to the 'Tail Risk Assessment' in the exit strategy, when the price exceeds 0.85 and the 2026 election is still over a year away, the time cost and uncertainty risks of holding long-term (e.g., sudden scandals, primary election variables) far outweigh the remaining 12c profit potential due to the volatility of South Korean politics. Furthermore, the negative PnL indicates an extremely high entry price; exiting at the current price allows for capital preservation to seek opportunities with a higher edge.
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Settled:
Buy：04-14 01:00 | Bought No @ 10¢ | Position: 1000 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: [Reverse Arbitrage Strategy] There is a severe deviation of >30% between the Polymarket price (88c) and authoritative polls (converted to ~52%-55% win probability). The market is overpriced, driven by sentiment following the Democratic primary victory. According to strategy guidelines, when the price enters the extreme zone above 70c and deviates from polls by >10%, one should decisively buy 'NO' on the overvalued candidate. As the incumbent mayor, Oh Se-hoon certainly has more than a 12% chance in a general election; this trade offers an exceptional risk-reward ratio.
Sell：04-15 01:00 | Sold No @ 10¢ | 1000 Shares | Net Profit: 0$(0%)
Sell Review: The 'NO' price for Jung Won-oh is only 0.1, implying the market sees a 90% probability of him winning the 2026 Seoul Mayoral election, which is a severe mispricing at this stage. While Jung is respected at the district level, a 90% win rate against political giants like Oh Se-hoon is baseless. Following the 'Iron Rule' principle of 'deviation from polls/common sense > 10%,' the risk-reward ratio for this position is extremely poor. You should exit immediately to secure capital and prevent significant losses from a market correction.
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Settled: -10$ (-10%)
Buy：04-14 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 90¢ | Position: 111.11 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The market currently prices Steve Hilton at 80c. While this may seem high, Republican Hilton is nearly certain to secure a 'top-two' spot for the general election following the sudden withdrawal of his strongest Democratic opponent, Eric Swalwell. Under California's 'Top-Two' primary system, Hilton is virtually guaranteed a spot as the leading Republican while multiple Democratic candidates (Porter, Steyer, Becerra) split the vote. At 80c, there remains a 20% risk-free arbitrage opportunity, aligning with the buying criteria of 'leading in authoritative polls with opponent collapse.'
Sell：04-15 01:00 | Sold Yes @ 81¢ | 111.11 Shares | Net Profit: -10$(-10%)
Sell Review: Steve Hilton's 0.81 win probability in the California gubernatorial primary is overpriced. California utilizes a 'Top-two' primary system; while Hilton is a competitive high-profile Republican, an 81% chance of advancing is a significant deviation from political reality given how early it is for the 2026 election and the crowded field of Democratic candidates. Following the 'Iron Law,' Polymarket prices are currently in a high-level stalemate and likely overvalued. One should exit at the current price to avoid the risks of fundamental volatility over the next year.
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Settled: +17.33$ (+17.33%)
Buy：04-08 13:01 | Bought Yes @ 75¢ | Position: 133.33 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Although the price of 78.5c is slightly above the preferred strategic cap of 70c, the asset is backed by exceptionally strong external data. Polls show a 14.6% lead, and opponent Oh Se-hoon faces legal risks, signaling a fundamental shift in the landscape. While the Polymarket price is high, it has yet to fully price in the risk of Oh's potential disqualification or a total collapse in his approval ratings due to the trial. According to the 'Middle Divergence' criterion, while this is not a toss-up zone, the win rate is highly stable. A small position is recommended to capture the remaining mean reversion upside.
Sell：04-13 13:01 | Sold Yes @ 88¢ | 133.33 Shares | Net Profit: +17.33$(+17.33%)
Sell Review: The position for the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election currently shows a 17.33% profit, with the price reaching 0.88. Given that the fundamentals of this event could shift significantly over the next two years and the price is nearing the take-profit zone (close to 90c), profits should be locked in to avoid uncontrollable risks associated with long-term holding, in accordance with the tail risk assessment in the [Basic Exit Review Guidelines].
Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner
Settled: -32$ (-32%)
Buy：04-08 13:01 | Bought Yes @ 75¢ | Position: 133.33 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The market is currently trading at around 74c. Although internal data shows Kim Tae-heum at only 4.7c, suggesting potential undervaluation, strong external data confirms Yang Seung-jo's dominance. The market is undergoing a repricing process from a 'neck-and-neck' race to a 'one-man show.' As this province is a well-known 'swing state' in South Korea, the current polling lead serves as a powerful signal. This meets the 'strong external data support' criterion in our strategy; recommending a 'Yes' buy.
Sell：04-13 01:00 | Sold Yes @ 51¢ | 133.33 Shares | Net Profit: -32$(-32%)
Sell Review: Yang Seung-jo is priced at 0.51, situated in a zone of intense disagreement with a 32% loss incurred. According to the strategy, if polling data shows no clear lead and the price stagnates, a stop-loss exit is chosen to avoid time costs and further downside risk.
Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Settled: -8.7$ (-2.9%)
Buy：04-08 13:01 | Bought Yes @ 30¢ | Position: 333.33 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: This is a classic 'misinterpretation of rules' opportunity. Polymarket prices show a 71% probability for Fidesz to take second place, while TISZA is at only 29%. However, in reality, Fidesz is the ruling party; they will either come in first (re-election) or slip to second due to TISZA's rise. According to the latest polls, TISZA is highly likely to win first place or be extremely close to Fidesz. If Fidesz wins first, TISZA will inevitably be second; if TISZA wins first, then Fidesz becomes second. The market currently mistakes this for a 'who wins' market, leading to an inflated price for Fidesz. The logic for buying TISZA (Yes) is: as long as Fidesz performs normally and takes first, TISZA, as the strongest opposition party, is guaranteed second. The 29c price corresponds to a real-world probability of over 80%, offering an edge far exceeding 10%, which aligns with the core strategy.
Buy：04-09 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 27¢ | Position: 370.37 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: This is a classic case of misinterpreting the rules. In reality, Fidesz will most likely take first place with TISZA in second, or TISZA will pull off an upset for first, leaving Fidesz in second. In either scenario, the probability of TISZA placing second should never be as low as 26c. Since Fidesz is currently mispriced as the second-place finisher (73c) on Polymarket, buying TISZA 'Yes' (26c) or Fidesz 'No' (27c) offers excellent odds. Based on a 'mean reversion' strategy, prices are bound to correct toward polling realities as the election approaches.
Buy：04-10 01:02 | Bought Yes @ 24¢ | Position: 416.67 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: This is a classic opportunity arising from a misinterpretation of rules. The market currently prices Fidesz at 75c (Yes), implying a high probability of them finishing second. However, the latest authoritative polls show TISZA leading Fidesz by approximately 9-11%, meaning Fidesz is highly likely to be the actual runner-up. Conversely, if Fidesz regains the lead, TISZA would then become the runner-up. Currently, TISZA's 'Yes' is priced at only 22.5c, while Fidesz's 'Yes' is as high as 75.5c. According to polls, one of these two must finish second, and the probability of a TISZA victory (making Fidesz second) is surging. Buying TISZA's 'Yes' serves as an excellent cheap hedge against Fidesz unexpectedly returning to first place; or more directly, while Fidesz's 'Yes' is expensive, TISZA's 'Yes' is severely undervalued given that polls show Fidesz sliding into second. Considering the odds range and a polling deviation of >10%, this aligns with the core strategy.
Sell：04-12 01:00 | Sold Yes @ 26¢ | 1120.37 Shares | Net Profit: -8.7$(-2.9%)
Sell Review: Automatic position closure triggered by expiration.
Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner
Settled: -131.18$ (-21.86%)
Buy：04-09 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 6.8¢ | Position: 1470.59 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The pricing is utterly absurd. In a swing state, an incumbent governor with the full support of the ruling party cannot have a win probability lower than 5%. The market is currently over-fixated on the Democratic primary hype, completely ignoring the competitiveness of the general election. An entry price of 4.8c offers exceptional odds and aligns with the 'Middle Divergence' position management criteria. Recommendation: Buy.
Buy：04-10 01:02 | Bought Yes @ 1.3¢ | Position: 7692.31 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The market exhibits a severe partisan sentiment bias. As a swing province, South Chungcheong's incumbent Governor Kim Tae-heum possesses a solid conservative base and strong administrative performance; his true win probability cannot possibly be as low as 4.3c. Polymarket liquidity is clearly distracted by the intense DPK primary (Yang Seung-jo vs. Park Soo-hyun), mistakenly equating primary hype with general election odds. Strategically, when Polymarket prices deviate significantly (>10%) from political reality (incumbency advantage + swing state dynamics), one should decisively buy the undervalued incumbent. The 5.5c price offers exceptional value and upside.
Buy：04-10 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 2.3¢ | Position: 4347.83 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: There is an extreme cognitive bias in this market. Polymarket has mistaken the DPK primary hype for the general election win probability. South Chungcheong Province is a well-known 'swing province' in South Korea; the incumbent Governor Kim Tae-heum possesses strong administrative resources and a solid base, making a true win probability of only 4% impossible. Based on 2022 data and the current political landscape, incumbents typically maintain a baseline support of 35%-45% in local elections. The current price of 0.0265 (approx. 2.6c) offers exceptional odds and a margin for error, aligning with the core strategy of 'exploiting cognitive gaps.' Recommendation: Buy YES.
Buy：04-11 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 2.3¢ | Position: 4347.83 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: The market is once again showing a severe 'primary hype premium.' South Chungcheong Province is South Korea's famous 'central swing region,' and the incumbent governor, Kim Tae-heum, has a solid governing foundation; his win probability could not possibly be as low as 2%. Even if the overall momentum favors the DPK, Kim's fair win probability should be above 35%. Buying 'YES' at 2c offers extremely low risk (near zero) with massive potential returns, making it a classic case of mispriced odds.
Buy：04-11 13:00 | Bought Yes @ 2.1¢ | Position: 4761.9 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: Market pricing is severely distorted. DPK candidate Yang Seung-jo is priced at 70c, while the incumbent Governor Kim Tae-heum is at only 2.05c. In a typical swing region like Chungcheongnam-do, a 2% re-election probability for an incumbent governor is statistically irrational. The market is currently distracted by the intense DPK primary heat, overlooking Kim Tae-heum's base as the sole PPP candidate. The 2.05c price offers exceptional odds; even if Kim does not ultimately win, his price is bound to mean-revert toward a fair value range of 30c-40c as the general election approaches, presenting an excellent profit-taking opportunity.
Buy：04-12 01:00 | Bought Yes @ 0.5¢ | Position: 20000 Shares ($100)
Entry Reason: South Chungcheong Province is a well-known 'bellwether' state in South Korea, where election outcomes often depend on swing voters. While current polls show the DPK leading, assigning only a 2% win probability to the incumbent Governor Kim Tae-heum is utterly absurd. This pricing reflects the market's excessive focus on the DPK primary competition while ignoring the return of the conservative base in the general election. The 1.75c price offers an excellent risk-reward ratio, aligning with the strategy of 'leveraging strong external data to exploit significant cognitive gaps.' Even if a win is not guaranteed, the price is highly likely to mean-revert to the 30c-40c range as the general election approaches.
Sell：04-13 01:00 | Sold Yes @ 1.1¢ | 42620.45 Shares | Net Profit: -131.18$(-21.86%)
Sell Review: The price has dropped to 0.011, resulting in severe PnL losses. Although Kim Tae-heum is the actual Governor of South Chungcheong Province, the price in this specific prediction market suggests the contract is nearing expiration or its chances of success have vanished. Executing CLOSE to recover the minimal remaining value.