There is a slight textual ambiguity in the rules: the description mentions 'by the Forecast', yet the provided URL and primary phrasing point to 'recorded' historical data. This contradiction could lead to resolution disputes if the forecasted high differs from the actual recorded high.

On April 26, 2026, the price of the '86°F or higher' option surged from 42.5c to 88.5c. This is because, as the date approaches, weather forecasts clearly indicate that Houston will experience high temperatures around 90°F on April 28, greatly increasing the certainty of this bucket hitting. Simultaneously, the prices of '84-85°F', '82-83°F', and lower temperature ranges experienced significant drops of over 10c, driven by the same hot weather forecast, as the market priced out the possibility of lower temperatures.

April 26, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of '25°C or higher' crashed from 28c to 4.75c, '19°C' plummeted from 21c to 9.5c, and other lower temperature options like '18°C' and '17°C' also saw significant declines. The reason is that as April 28 approaches, weather forecast models have stabilized, locking the expected high temperature within the 20°C-22°C range, prompting the market to quickly price out extreme temperature scenarios.

Between 2026-04-26 05:18 and 2026-04-26 06:23, the price of '70°F or higher' plummeted from 42c to 23.5c, '62-63°F' from 20.5c to 5.55c, '60-61°F' from 18c to 1.55c, and '58-59°F' from 16c to 1.25c. This is because weather forecast models have converged as the resolution date approaches, ruling out these temperature ranges.

Predicting the exact highest temperature for a specific Chinese city (Chengdu) on a given day is a highly niche and esoteric topic. Outside of prediction market participants, almost no one in the general public would think about this.

April 26, 2026 05:18-06:23, the prices of 19°C, 20°C, 21°C, 24°C, and 25°C all plummeted by over 10c (e.g., 21°C dropped from 34.5c to 23c, 19°C dropped from 20.5c to 5.55c). The reason is a drastic market correction from a previously severe overpricing state (sum > 150c) to the current underpriced state (sum 91.5c), a typical repricing caused by liquidity adjustments or market makers pulling liquidity.