The market has high resolution risk due to strictly detailed typographical definitions of 'headlines', 'sub-headlines', and 'banner headlines' (e.g., must be separated by a black line/byline, pull quotes excluded). Furthermore, the rules regarding compound words and plural/possessive forms are complex, making edge cases in newspaper layouts highly prone to disputes.

Betting on the exact vocabulary of a specific newspaper's front page over a week is an exotic and novelty market. While it reflects current events, it is heavily dependent on the arbitrary editorial and layout choices of the NYT editors, which is not something people normally think about.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, prices for multiple options including Donald / Trump, Russia, and Israel surged by more than 10 cents (Trump soared from 57c to 96c, Russia from 42c to 88c). This was primarily driven by initial price discovery mechanisms, widespread price corrections due to early low liquidity, and rapidly heightening expectations for specific geopolitical and political news coverage. Previous record: No price movements exceeding 10 cents have been recorded in the past 3 days prior to this surge.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a politician in a random week is a classic novelty derivative market. While Trump's prolific posting is well-known, ordinary people rarely quantify or forecast the specific count for a given week.

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of the '120-139' option further surged from 49.65c to nearly 75c before settling at 66.65c, while '140-159' dropped significantly from 40c to 21c. This occurred because, as the deadline approached, the actual posting volume could not support expectations of a higher bracket, causing the market to rapidly concentrate capital into the most probable lower-frequency bracket. April 26, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the '120-139' option surged from 16.3c to 49.7c, while '140-159' dropped from 49c to 41c and '160-179' plummeted from 23.5c to 10c. The reason is a significant stall in Trump's posting volume over the weekend, prompting the market to sharply lower final expectations based on the sluggish pace. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 21.5c to 49c, while the '180-199' option plummeted from 27c to 9.4c, because Trump's posting pace slowed further, leading the market to heavily downgrade its expectations for the final tally. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 6.5c to 43.5c, because Trump's posting frequency showed signs of slowing down, causing the market to sharply lower its expectations. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option plummeted from 47.75c to 28.1c, and the '200+' option crashed from 23.85c to 4.9c, because the actual posting pace failed to maintain its earlier high frequency, largely ruling out the higher brackets. April 21, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option surged from 18.5c to a peak of 47.75c before settling at 39.85c, while the '140-159' option plummeted from 38.5c to 7.5c and '120-139' dropped from 34c to 1.15c. The reason is that as the tracking period reached its halfway mark, Trump's actual posting volume remained consistently high, prompting the market to completely rule out mid-to-low frequency outcomes. April 21, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option rose from 20c to 37c before falling back to 27.5c, as the market dynamically adjusted expectations for the final count based on the real-time posting pace. April 18, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the high-frequency option '200+' surged from 1.75c to 18.35c, while mid-to-low frequency options like '120-139' and '100-119' plummeted from 29.5c and 27c down to 15.5c and 9.5c, respectively. The reason was a sudden spike in Trump's social media activity, prompting the market to significantly raise expectations for his 7-day posting total.

Relies on a proprietary Polymarket tracker, introducing potential technical blind spots. The rules state replies generally do not count, but will be counted if recorded on the main feed by the tracker. Furthermore, whether rapidly deleted posts (within ~5 minutes) are successfully captured depends heavily on system timing, easily triggering resolution disputes.

Predicting the exact tweet count of a specific politician in a random week is a typical long-tail novelty market born from the attention economy. Beyond hardcore prediction market participants, the general public would never actively track such fragmented and trivial data.

From 2026-04-24 to 2026-04-25, the price of the 100-119 bracket surged from 9.5c to 46.5c, while the 180-199 bracket plunged from 27.4c to 2.9c, and the 120-139 bracket retreated from 64.5c to 26.6c. This was caused by a likely brief spike in posting activity by Ted Cruz around the 24th, which temporarily inflated expectations for higher brackets, but a subsequent slowdown in posting frequency brought market expectations back down to the 100-119 range. From 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-23, the 140-159 bracket dropped from ~39c to 16c, and the 160-179 and 180-199 brackets also saw significant drops of over 15c; meanwhile, the 100-119 bracket surged from 21.5c to a peak of 51.5c before settling back. This was caused by Ted Cruz's daily post volume moderating from the extreme high frequency seen on the first day, cooling market expectations for an extremely high final count and shifting the probability center down to the 100-139 range. From 2026-04-21 16:03 to 2026-04-21 17:08, the price of the 120-139 bracket surged from 25.25c to 44.35c, the 140-159 bracket surged from 23.8c to 39.35c, the 160-179 bracket surged from 3.7c to 18.45c, and the 180-199 bracket surged from 1.35c to 17.45c. This was caused by Ted Cruz demonstrating an exceptionally high posting frequency on the first day of the tracking period, leading the market to comprehensively upgrade expectations for the total post count.

Resolution relies on a specific external tool (xtracker), which might have discrepancies in capturing 'replies on the main feed' and 'deleted posts (~5 minute window)' compared to manual observation. If the tracker fails, X itself acts as a backup, introducing risk of inconsistent data sources.

Predicting the exact number of tweets a specific public figure makes during a randomly selected week is a quintessential novelty and entertainment market, which ordinary people would rarely think about or analyze.

April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option surged from 40.5c to 93c, while the '<20' and '40-59' options plunged from 29.5c and 27.5c down to single digits (3.5c and 5.75c respectively). This was driven by the passage of time and CZ's actual cumulative tweet count, which exponentially increased the certainty of the final result landing in the 20-39 range, practically eliminating other possibilities. April 21, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the '60-79' option crashed from 48.5c to 2.85c, because the remaining days were insufficient to support extremely high tweet count expectations, bursting the speculative bubble in high-frequency buckets. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the '<20' option surged from 19.5c to 33.5c, likely due to a very low tweet frequency from CZ on that day, leading the market to briefly expect the total might fall below 20. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the '120-139' option spiked from 5.9c to 14.25c; early abnormal movements in high-frequency buckets suggested speculative or indiscriminate buying. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the '80-99' option plunged from 21.5c to 11.5c, indicating some early correction in high-frequency expectations.

The rules rely on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than checking the X platform directly. Nuances regarding 'replies recorded on the main feed' and 'deleted posts captured within 5 minutes' can cause discrepancies between the tracker's data and the publicly visible tweet count, requiring users to closely monitor the tracker.

This is a classic exotic/novelty market. The vast majority of people do not naturally care about or predict the exact number of tweets the NYC Mayor makes in a specific week. Such metrics are micro-entertainment events created purely for trading purposes.

April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The dominance of the 20-39 bracket was fully established, surging from 49.5c to stabilize above 97c. Simultaneously, the <20 bracket crashed from 26.9c to around 1.9c, and the 40-59 bracket plummeted from 22c to 2.75c. The reason is that halfway through the tracked period, live post counts virtually guaranteed the final total would land in the 20-39 range, eliminating the possibility of both extremely low and moderately high totals. April 21, 2026 - April 23, 2026: The price of the <20 bracket plummeted from 48c to 2.65c, and the 40-59 bracket crashed from 31c to 2.1c, while the 20-39 bracket surged from around 50c to stabilize above 86c. The reason is that two days into the market period, real-time post tracking data heavily reinforced the certainty of the final count landing in the 20-39 range. April 19, 2026 - April 21, 2026: Multiple unlikely brackets (e.g., 100-119, 140-159, 180-199) experienced extreme volatility and surges exceeding 10c. For instance, the 100-119 bracket skyrocketed from 1.45c to 18.8c. The reason is likely erratic trading due to thin liquidity or attempts by some traders to manipulate the prices of long-shot options.