The market relies heavily on a specific external tracker (xtracker) and has precise caveats for replies (only counted if on the main feed) and deleted posts (must survive ~5 minutes to be captured). Tracker downtime or scraping anomalies could cause discrepancies with manual profile counts.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a politician makes in a specific week is a classic degenerate prop bet. The general public rarely wonders about this specific metric, making the market highly novel and entertainment-driven.

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, '120-139' price surged from 30.5c to 50c then fell back to 34c, while '140-159' steadily dropped from 21.5c to 11.5c, as the initial stabilization of the posting pace further concentrated the market on the 100-139 range. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of '160-179' plummeted from 24c to 5c, as the posting pace failed to meet the expectations for this bracket over time, leading the market to drastically downgrade its probability. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, '120-139' fluctuated from 24c up to 41.5c and back to 27c, while '140-159' rose from 22c to 35.5c before settling at 27c. This occurred as early posting data caused market expectations to swing wildly regarding a final tally between 120 and 160. April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, options such as '200+', '180-199', and '60-79' experienced recurring volatile swings over 10c. For instance, '60-79' fell from 15.65c to 3.75c, while high-frequency brackets like '200+' bounced back by 10c after an initial drop, reflecting shifting trader expectations of Trump's posting pace and repeated rebalancing by market makers among mutually exclusive options. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, 'Yes' prices for lower-frequency brackets like '40-59', '60-79', and '80-99' plummeted by over 15c (e.g., '40-59' crashed from 24.5c to 0.55c). This was driven by the market rapidly pricing out the likelihood of unusually low posting volumes as the tracking period approached.