Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market on prediction platforms. Outside of degenerate bettors, mainstream society or traditional analysts rarely care about such hyper-specific stats.

2026-04-06 18:10 to 2026-04-07 11:30, the 80-99 range surged from 42.5c to 98.6c, while the 60-79 range plummeted from 53c to 0.85c. This is because, with only a few hours left until resolution, the actual post count has essentially been locked into the 80-99 range, and the market has eliminated any remaining uncertainty. 2026-04-06 19:15 to 2026-04-07 01:45, the 60-79 range dropped sharply from 55.3c to 22.35c, while the 80-99 range rose from 72c to 75.5c. This was due to a stable posting frequency in the final half-day, steadily pointing the projected total to the 80-99 range, causing the market to heavily correct its previously swinging expectations. 2026-04-06 11:40 to 2026-04-06 19:15, the 60-79 range sharply rebounded from 26.3c to 55.3c, while the 80-99 range rose from 65.5c to 72c. This was due to sudden fluctuations in posting frequency on the final day, causing market expectations to swing violently between the 60-79 and 80-99 ranges. 2026-04-05 21:35 to 2026-04-06 11:40, the 80-99 range surged from 41c to 65.5c, while the 60-79 range plummeted from 52.85c to 26.3c. This occurred because a steady posting frequency entering the final day firmly pointed the projected total towards the 80-99 range, causing a major market correction. 2026-04-05 22:40 to 2026-04-05 23:45, the 80-99 range recovered from 47.5c to 55.5c, while the 60-79 range dropped back from 53.05c to 37.15c. This occurred because the posting frequency picked up in the evening, shifting the market's expectation back towards the 80-99 range. 2026-04-05 12:55 to 2026-04-05 20:30, the 60-79 range surged from 40.3c to 53.05c, while the 80-99 range further declined from 47.5c to 40c. This occurred because posting frequency continued to be lower than expected, making the market believe the final count is more likely to fall in the 60-79 range. 2026-04-04 15:15 to 2026-04-05 12:55, the 80-99 range retraced from 55.5c to 47.5c, while the 100-119 range dropped back to 7c after a minor bounce, and the 60-79 range steadily climbed from 22.5c to 40.3c. This was due to a further slowdown in weekend posting frequency, shifting market expectations downwards from 80-119 to 60-99. 2026-04-03 18:40 to 2026-04-04 17:25, the price of the 100-119 range plummeted further from 42.5c to 7.5c, while the 80-99 range rose to 55.5c, and the 60-79 range maintained around 37.95c after peaking at 36.8c. This is because Trump's posting pace remained persistently sluggish, confirming to the market that surpassing the 100-post mark is highly unlikely, fully shifting expectations to the 60-99 ranges. 2026-04-03 15:25 to 2026-04-04 04:25, the price of the 100-119 range plummeted further from 42.5c to 20c, while the 60-79 range surged from 12.85c to 36.8c. This is because Trump's latest posting frequency has noticeably slowed, leading the market to heavily downgrade expectations for the final post count. 2026-04-03 15:25 to 2026-04-03 23:00, the price of the 100-119 range plummeted from 42.5c to 27c, while the 80-99 range remained around 42.5c, and the 60-79 range rose from 12.85c to 16.3c. This occurred because, as time progressed, the latest posting frequency data caused the market to downgrade its expectations for the total post count, reducing the likelihood of exceeding 100 posts. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of the 100-119 range surged from 20.5c to 45c, while the 80-99 range steadily rose from 29.5c to over 41.5c. The 60-79 range also experienced significant volatility (spiking from 3.3c to 14.9c before retreating). This occurred because the daily average posting frequency became clearer, causing the market to price out extreme highs or lows and concentrate bets on the upper-middle ranges. 2026-03-28 to 2026-03-29, the prices of multiple core options (e.g., 80-99, 100-119, 60-79, 120-139) plummeted by more than 10 cents. This was due to insufficient initial liquidity in the early phase of the market causing highly inflated prices, which then corrected as market makers intervened to normalize the sum of implied probabilities closer to 100%.