Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day belongs to the niche but established weather prediction market. While ordinary people do not think about this daily, it is not completely absurd and has an objective, scientific forecasting basis.

From April 18 to April 19, 2026, the price for 42°C surged from 59.5c to 99.35c, while 41°C plummeted from 17.5c to 0.05c, and 43°C dropped from 27.5c to 0.4c. The reason is that as the target date arrived, the actual temperature data settled at 42°C, eliminating all market suspense. From April 17 to April 18, 2026, the Yes price for 42°C surged from 28c to 47.5c, while 41°C plummeted from 26.5c to 9.5c, and 44°C dropped from 13.5c to 3.7c. This is because, as the target date approaches, weather forecasts have become significantly more accurate, with models consistently converging around 42°C and eliminating uncertainty for fringe options.

This is a highly specific daily weather prediction market. Unless one is a local resident, traveler, or weather enthusiast, the general public rarely guesses the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a random day, giving it a high novelty and niche factor.

2026-04-17 - 2026-04-18, the price of the 23°C option surged from 27c to 49c, as approaching the resolution date, updated weather forecasts solidified the expectation that the high temperature will likely hit exactly 23°C. 2026-04-17 - 2026-04-18, the price of the 24°C option rose from 21.5c to 36c before dropping back to 24.5c, reflecting temporary fluctuations in market expectations due to minor updates in weather forecasting models.

April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of '16°C' continued to surge from 25.5c to 47c, and '17°C' rose from 13c to 23c, as the short-term meteorological forecast on the resolution day confirmed a further warming trend. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of '15°C' plummeted from a peak of 44.5c to 14.5c, and '14°C' collapsed from 29c to under 1c, reflecting a clear warming trend in weather models that practically ruled out lower temperatures. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of '14°C' surged from 16c to a peak of 30c before settling at 20.5c, as weather forecasting sources (like Wunderground) slightly adjusted their weekend models downward, shifting the expected high from 15°C to around 14°C. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of '13°C' temporarily spiked from 3.5c to 8.8c before falling back, reflecting brief market concerns about the intensity of an incoming cold front.

April 19, 2026 01:00 - April 19, 2026 08:00, the price of the 30°C option surged from 17.5c to 99.5c, and the 29°C option plummeted from 57.5c to 0.2c. The reason is that as Hong Kong local time entered the afternoon of April 19, real-time observation data showed the maximum temperature had reached the 30°C range, causing funds to rapidly converge on the certain outcome. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 28°C option dropped from 31.5c to 23c, the 29°C option rose from 42c to 52.5c, and the 30°C option fell from 21.5c to 17.5c. The reason is that as April 19 arrived, real-time temperature observation data further clarified that the maximum temperature was more likely to reach 29°C, leading funds to concentrate on the 29°C option initially. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 28°C option rose from 23.5c to a peak of 40.5c, and the 29°C option rose from 35c to 46.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, weather forecasts further confirmed that the maximum temperature would likely fall between 28°C and 29°C, ruling out more extreme variations and causing funds to concentrate on these two most probable outcomes.

While checking the weather is a daily habit, predicting the exact high temperature at a specific airport on a random date is a niche and arbitrary topic that average people wouldn't naturally ponder.

From 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the Yes price for the 24°C option surged from 27.0¢ to 52.0¢, while the 23°C option saw a similar spike before settling around 41¢, as real-time afternoon temperature readings in Tokyo narrowed the highest temperature window between 23°C and 24°C. From 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the Yes price for the 24°C option climbed from 29.5¢ to 44.0¢. This is due to meteorological models revising the daytime high forecast upwards as the resolution date approaches, making 24°C the most likely outcome. From 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the 25°C option experienced a fluctuation, rising from 8.5¢ to a peak of 19.5¢ before settling at 14.5¢. This was driven by some models briefly projecting warmer extremes before the forecast stabilized.