Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 22? - AI Found +21.5¢ Mispricing

Weather|$18.0k Vol|

22 hrs 47 mins

Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 22? - AI Found +21.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.20 06:16

Top Undervalued

+21.5¢

23°C(No)

+20¢

24°C(No)

+20¢

21°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 22? AI analysis: • +21.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Latest weather forecasts indicate the highest temperature for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airpor...

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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$16.9k Vol|

Highest temperature in Moscow on April 22?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Moscow on April 22, 2026, will be bet...

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April 20, 2026 (05:43-06:48) - The price of the 9°C option plummeted from 19.5c to 7.5c, and the 8°C option dropped from 16c to 5.95c. This is due to weather forecasts stabilizing and pointing towards warmer temperatures (11-12°C) as the date approaches, leading the market to quickly discount the likelihood of colder weather.

How frequently does the NOAA site update data for Vnukovo International Airport, and is there any risk of delayed finalization for the April 22 high temperature readings?

Weather|$30.1k Vol|

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 22?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The latest weather forecast indicates that the highest temperature at Shenzhen Bao'an International ...

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How reliable is the Wunderground data for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ), and what are the exact rules for Celsius rounding in this market?

Elections|$50.5k Vol|

195 days 10 hrs

CA-38 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

CA-38 is a solid deep-blue district (Cook PVI D+14) with a predominantly working-class Latino demogr...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for CA-38, considering the ~$20k volume—is the bid/ask spread too wide? Simultaneously, retrieve the status of the incumbent (e.g., Linda Sánchez) and district demographic shifts to assess if the current odds fairly reflect the fundamental 'Safe Democrat' nature of the seat.

[Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Ratings & PVI Comparison: Search for the latest ratings for California's 38th District from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or FiveThirtyEight (e.g., 'Safe Democrat'). Compare the district's Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) to determine if there is a significant divergence between Polymarket's implied probability and mainstream political ratings.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for CA-38, considering the ~$20k volume—is the bid/ask spread too wide? Simultaneously, retrieve the status of the incumbent (e.g., Linda Sánchez) and district demographic shifts to assess if the current odds fairly reflect the fundamental 'Safe Democrat' nature of the seat.

Politics|$64.7k Vol|

104 days 10 hrs

Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Andy Biggs(Yes)

Karrin Taylor Robson(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Andy Biggs continues to hold an absolute lead as the presumptive nominee for the Republican primary....

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket 'Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner' page to analyze the current order book depth for David Schweikert, Karrin Taylor Robson, and Andy Biggs. Assess whether the current odds reflect the latest filing status and endorsement news (especially regarding Trump), and identify any liquidity traps or mispricing given the $17k volume.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 Arizona Republican Gubernatorial Primary polling data from sources like FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, or local firms like Noble Predictive Insights. Compare the polling numbers for Robson, Biggs, and Schweikert directly against their implied probabilities on Polymarket to find arbitrage space caused by market lag or overreaction.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket 'Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner' page to analyze the current order book depth for David Schweikert, Karrin Taylor Robson, and Andy Biggs. Assess whether the current odds reflect the latest filing status and endorsement news (especially regarding Trump), and identify any liquidity traps or mispricing given the $17k volume.

Weather|$11.8k Vol|

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) on Apri...

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There are some resolution traps. First, the title mentions Tel Aviv, but the rules explicitly state the use of data from Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) located in Lod, which may have a temperature discrepancy. Second, there might be timezone traps regarding how 'April 22' is defined (e.g., UTC vs. Israel local time) in the NOAA timeseries. Finally, resolving to whole degrees Celsius could catch traders off guard if they rely on decimal-level forecasts.

Between April 20, 2026, and April 21, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 21c to 41.5c, and the 23°C option rose from 22.5c to 37.5c. Concurrently, the 22°C option plummeted from 27c to 12c, and the 21°C option dropped from 16c to 2.2c. This was caused by updated weather models shifting the expected high temperature upwards as the resolution date approaches.

What are the exact resolution criteria for the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22, and how can the win/loss conditions based on NOAA data at Ben Gurion Airport be explained simply?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

23°C

YesNo

36.5¢

63.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+21.5¢

24°C

YesNo

30¢

70¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+20¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

While weather forecasting is a standard objective data prediction, betting on the exact temperature of a specific city on a single day is relatively niche. It mostly attracts specific traders interested in meteorological models rather than the general public.

Divergence

The market prices '26°C or higher' at a relatively high 20.5c, whereas mainstream weather models (like Wunderground and AccuWeather) forecast highs around 21°C-22°C with likely cloud cover or light rain for April 22. Reaching 26°C+ is highly improbable according to current meteorological data. This divergence is likely driven by early speculative capital or overestimation of local heat anomalies.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$16.9k Vol|

Highest temperature in Moscow on April 22?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Moscow on April 22, 2026, will be bet...

🔓 Log in to see more

April 20, 2026 (05:43-06:48) - The price of the 9°C option plummeted from 19.5c to 7.5c, and the 8°C option dropped from 16c to 5.95c. This is due to weather forecasts stabilizing and pointing towards warmer temperatures (11-12°C) as the date approaches, leading the market to quickly discount the likelihood of colder weather.

How frequently does the NOAA site update data for Vnukovo International Airport, and is there any risk of delayed finalization for the April 22 high temperature readings?

Weather|$30.1k Vol|

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 22?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The latest weather forecast indicates that the highest temperature at Shenzhen Bao'an International ...

🔓 Log in to see more

How reliable is the Wunderground data for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ), and what are the exact rules for Celsius rounding in this market?

Elections|$50.5k Vol|

195 days 10 hrs

CA-38 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

CA-38 is a solid deep-blue district (Cook PVI D+14) with a predominantly working-class Latino demogr...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for CA-38, considering the ~$20k volume—is the bid/ask spread too wide? Simultaneously, retrieve the status of the incumbent (e.g., Linda Sánchez) and district demographic shifts to assess if the current odds fairly reflect the fundamental 'Safe Democrat' nature of the seat.

[Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Ratings & PVI Comparison: Search for the latest ratings for California's 38th District from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or FiveThirtyEight (e.g., 'Safe Democrat'). Compare the district's Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) to determine if there is a significant divergence between Polymarket's implied probability and mainstream political ratings.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for CA-38, considering the ~$20k volume—is the bid/ask spread too wide? Simultaneously, retrieve the status of the incumbent (e.g., Linda Sánchez) and district demographic shifts to assess if the current odds fairly reflect the fundamental 'Safe Democrat' nature of the seat.

Politics|$64.7k Vol|

104 days 10 hrs

Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Andy Biggs(Yes)

Karrin Taylor Robson(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Andy Biggs continues to hold an absolute lead as the presumptive nominee for the Republican primary....

🔓 Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket 'Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner' page to analyze the current order book depth for David Schweikert, Karrin Taylor Robson, and Andy Biggs. Assess whether the current odds reflect the latest filing status and endorsement news (especially regarding Trump), and identify any liquidity traps or mispricing given the $17k volume.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 Arizona Republican Gubernatorial Primary polling data from sources like FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, or local firms like Noble Predictive Insights. Compare the polling numbers for Robson, Biggs, and Schweikert directly against their implied probabilities on Polymarket to find arbitrage space caused by market lag or overreaction.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket 'Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner' page to analyze the current order book depth for David Schweikert, Karrin Taylor Robson, and Andy Biggs. Assess whether the current odds reflect the latest filing status and endorsement news (especially regarding Trump), and identify any liquidity traps or mispricing given the $17k volume.

Weather|$11.8k Vol|

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) on Apri...

🔓 Log in to see more

There are some resolution traps. First, the title mentions Tel Aviv, but the rules explicitly state the use of data from Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) located in Lod, which may have a temperature discrepancy. Second, there might be timezone traps regarding how 'April 22' is defined (e.g., UTC vs. Israel local time) in the NOAA timeseries. Finally, resolving to whole degrees Celsius could catch traders off guard if they rely on decimal-level forecasts.

Between April 20, 2026, and April 21, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 21c to 41.5c, and the 23°C option rose from 22.5c to 37.5c. Concurrently, the 22°C option plummeted from 27c to 12c, and the 21°C option dropped from 16c to 2.2c. This was caused by updated weather models shifting the expected high temperature upwards as the resolution date approaches.

What are the exact resolution criteria for the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22, and how can the win/loss conditions based on NOAA data at Ben Gurion Airport be explained simply?

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