While the average person does not actively think about the daily high temperature in Buenos Aires, weather markets are a standard and well-established category on prediction platforms, making it moderately novel but not extremely bizarre.

April 26, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 20°C option plummeted from 33.5c to 20c. This is due to the latest weather forecasts indicating a significant cooling on April 28, with the expected high dropping to around 18°C.

There is a significant divergence between the market and mainstream meteorological forecasts. Mainstream weather sources (like The Weather Channel, Ventusky, Met Office) forecast a high of 16°C to 18°C for April 28, yet the market still assigns nearly a 48% probability to 20°C and above. This is likely because some traders have not yet updated their positions based on the latest colder forecasts.

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price for 18°C plummeted from 27c to 3.5c, and 19°C dropped from 27.5c to 12.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather models have become more certain that the high temperature will be above 19°C, concentrating in the 20°C-21°C range. April 26, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the prices for 16°C, 17°C, 22°C, and 24°C or higher plummeted by more than 10c (e.g., 24°C or higher dropped from 18.5c to 3.5c, 17°C from 17.5c to 3c). The reason is that as April 28 approaches, weather forecast models have become much more certain that the high temperature will fall within the 19°C-21°C range, causing market participants to quickly sell off extreme temperature options.

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026: The price of 16°C surged from 19c to 47c, while 14°C plummeted from 25.5c to 2.5c, and 13°C crashed from 25c to less than 1c. This was caused by updated weather forecast models closer to the resolution date, which significantly adjusted the expected high temperature for London on April 28 from cooler levels (13-14°C) to 15-16°C (around 60°F). April 26, 2026 05:08-06:13: The Yes price for the 13°C option plummeted from 25c to 12.5c, while the Yes price for 15°C climbed from 22c to 30.5c. This was caused by an update in short-term weather forecast models, which adjusted the expected high temperature upwards from a cooler 13°C.

April 26, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the Yes prices for the 18°C, 17°C, 16°C, 15°C, and 14°C options collapsed by over 10c each (e.g., 18°C fell from 20.5c to 5.5c, 14°C dropped from 12.5c to 0.8c). Similarly, 19°C and 20°C options plummeted by over 11c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated weather models strongly indicate that Milan's high temperature on April 28 will comfortably exceed 20°C, leading the market to price out the probability of a colder day.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city on a given date is a standard weather derivative play in prediction markets. While it lacks the broad appeal of macroeconomic events, it has objective resolution criteria and is not particularly bizarre.

Between 05:13 and 06:18 on April 26, 2026, the price of '22°C or higher' plummeted from 30.5c to 14.5c, '19°C' dropped from 34.5c to 24c, '17°C' fell from 21c to 7c, and '15°C' crashed from 14c to 0.9c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models have converged, eliminating the possibility of extreme highs and lows, focusing heavily on the 18-20°C range.