This is a prediction about the high temperature in a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, setting up a specific short-term prediction market for an exact degree in Warsaw is a relatively niche and specific market.

April 13, 2026 04:48 - April 13, 2026 13:28, the price of '14°C' plummeted from 24c to 6.5c, while '15°C or higher' surged from 73.5c to 88c. This was due to updated weather models confirming a warmer trend, pushing the expected high temperature firmly into the 15°C and above range.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the 120-139 bracket rose rapidly from 27c to 45.5c, while the 100-119 bracket dropped from a peak of 60c to 38c. This was caused by a significant surge in Trump's posting volume during this window, shifting the expected total firmly into the 120-139 range. April 14, 2026, the 120-139 bracket rose rapidly from 27c to 43c, while the 100-119 bracket peaked at 60c before falling back to around 48c. This was caused by a significant increase in Trump's posting frequency on that day, pushing market expectations higher into the 120-139 range. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 100-119 bracket rose from 34.5c to 49.5c, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 26c to 9c. This was caused by Trump's posting frequency remaining consistently high over the tracked period, dramatically increasing the likelihood of finishing in the 100-119 range and sharply reducing the chance of the 80-99 outcome. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 38.5c to 26c, as Trump's actual posting frequency further accelerated, shifting market expectations towards higher brackets like 100-119 and 120-139. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 80-99 bracket dropped from 39.5c to 26c, while the 120-139 bracket rose from 11c to 23.5c. This was caused by an accelerated posting frequency mid-cycle, shifting the projected total higher. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 18.5c to 2.35c. This was caused by the continuous release of actual posting data over the first couple of days, where the pace made reaching such a low total highly unlikely, prompting a rapid capital exit. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 140-159 bracket plunged from 12.15c to 2.2c. This was caused by the release of the first day's actual posting data, making a very high total unlikely and triggering a sell-off. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. Multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price (26.5c) due to early illiquidity. As market makers stepped in, a clearer consensus formed around the 80-119 range, causing outlier brackets to correct sharply downwards. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to around 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets like 100-119.

While the core rule is clear, there is significant schedule uncertainty risk. The rule mentions 'Pending legal challenges' and a 'special election', with a clause resolving to 'No' if the vote doesn't happen by Nov 3, 2026. This dependency on court rulings and election scheduling increases the risk of cancellation or postponement, meaning the market could resolve based on procedural failure rather than voter sentiment.

There is a significant rule trap. Even if hostilities actually resume or actions inconsistent with the ceasefire occur (e.g., closing a strait), the market will resolve to 'No' unless the US government or Trump explicitly labels it a 'breach' or 'violation' of the ceasefire in their statement. Additionally, breaches solely attributed to Israel do not qualify.

This is a geopolitical prediction. While US-Iran conflicts are common macro topics, betting on whether a ceasefire breaks within a specific tight window, contingent strictly on the 'official phrasing' of the announcement, adds a level of novelty and specific conditional constraints.

An official announcement that the US-Iran ceasefire has broken would trigger severe market panic. Crude Oil prices would experience a structural spike due to Middle East geopolitical risks and supply disruption threats. Safe-haven assets like Gold and US Treasuries (driving the US 10Y Yield down) would see aggressive bidding. Concurrently, risk assets like the S&P 500 would face a massive downward shock.

2026-04-14 to 2026-04-15, the Yes price of the April 14 option fell from ~3.5c to 0.45c, and the April 21 option dropped from 29c to 14c. The reason is the official passing of the April 14 deadline without any breach announcements, leading the market to significantly downgrade the probability of the ceasefire collapsing in its second week. 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-14, the Yes price of the April 14 option plummeted from 22.5c to 1.2c, and the April 21 Yes price fell from 40c to 16.5c. The reason is the extreme proximity to the April 14 deadline without any official statements indicating a breach of the ceasefire, causing the market to heavily discount the likelihood of a sudden incident.

China's Q1 GDP data is a key indicator of global economic health. A miss or beat would directly impact commodities (especially Crude Oil and Copper, given China's consumption) and China-related ETFs (like FXI). The Australian Dollar (AUDUSD), often a proxy for the Chinese economy, would also see significant volatility. While there is some impact on the broader US stock market, it is typically a secondary effect.

April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '4.5-5.0%' option briefly retreated from 66.5c to 64c before rebounding to 68c, while '5.0-5.5%' dropped from 31.5c to 25c. The reason is that as the data release approaches, the market has further confirmed expectations of Q1 GDP growth falling below 5%, with continuous fund inflows into the '4.5-5.0%' range. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '4.5-5.0%' option surged from 26c to 67.5c, while '5.0-5.5%' plummeted from 71c to 23c. The reason is that as the data release approaches, market consensus on Q1 GDP growth falling below 5% has become highly unified, with massive funds betting on weaker-than-expected economic growth. April 14, 2026, the price of the '4.5-5.0%' option retreated from 67c to 54.5c, while '5.0-5.5%' rebounded from 26c to 39c. The reason is profit-taking after the market overreacted to weak preliminary data, alongside renewed debate over whether the official print will still meet the 5% target. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '4.5-5.0%' option surged from 29c to 67c, while '5.0-5.5%' plummeted from 63.5c to 26c. The reason is the release of weak key macroeconomic data for March right before the official GDP announcement. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '5.0-5.5%' option rebounded quickly from a brief dip at 44.5c to stabilize above 70c, while '4.5-5.0%' fell from 46.5c to around 27c. The reason is that market consensus on Q1 GDP growth reaching over 5% had reconsolidated. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '4.5-5.0%' option dropped from 32.5c to 15c, while '5.0-5.5%' rebounded from 60.5c to 71.5c, as the market likely received confirmation of stronger internal indicators. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '5.0-5.5%' option rebounded sharply from 44.5c to 67.5c, while '4.5-5.0%' dropped from 46.5c to 29.5c, as expectations for meeting the official Q1 economic target warmed up again. April 10, 2026, the price of the '4.5-5.0%' option surged from 23.5c to 46.5c, while '5.0-5.5%' plummeted from 75.5c to 44.5c, likely due to institutional forecast downgrades. March 30, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the '4.5-5.0%' and '5.0-5.5%' options experienced multiple wide swings of over 15c due to volatile leading indicators.