IL-16 House Election Winner
Elections|$5,376 Vol|
time201 days 20 hrs

IL-16 House Election Winner - AI Found +10.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 12:09
Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+9¢
Democratic Party(No)

IL-16 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +10.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Illinois' 16th Congressional District (IL-16) holds a Cook PVI rating of R+11, classifying it as a s...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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NBA Rookie of the Year
Sports|$4.1m Vol|
time33 days 4 hrs

NBA Rookie of the Year

Top Undervalued
+0.3¢
Cooper Flagg(Yes)
+0.2¢
Kon Knueppel(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With the regular season officially over, the Rookie of the Year race has completely narrowed down to...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
Apr 12, 2026 - Apr 14, 2026, Kon Knueppel's price surged from 33.1c to 52.8c, while Cooper Flagg's price fell from 64.15c to 46.65c. This was driven by more post-season media ballot tracking leaks showing Knueppel receiving more first-place votes than expected, overtaking Flagg as the slight favorite and causing capital to flip. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 12, 2026, Cooper Flagg's price rebounded and rose from 49.95c to 64.15c, while Kon Knueppel's price fell from 49.85c to 33.1c. This occurred because as more media voters revealed their actual ballots, Flagg gained a clearer advantage than expected, breaking the 50/50 tie and drawing capital back. Apr 08, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026, Cooper Flagg's price plummeted from 71.85c to 49.95c, while Kon Knueppel's price surged from 26.6c to 49.85c. This occurred because, following the official end of the regular season, early media ballot tracking revealed an extremely tight race, shifting the market consensus from a Flagg lead to an absolute coin flip, causing capital to flood back into Knueppel. Apr 05, 2026 - Apr 08, 2026, Cooper Flagg's price surged continuously from 24.85c to 71.85c, while Kon Knueppel's price plunged from 73.35c to 26.6c. This was driven by a critical late-season development (most likely leaked early media ballots heavily favoring Flagg or award-clinching performances) that caused a massive disruption and sustained reversal in market consensus. Mar 26, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, Kon Knueppel's price surged from 57.05c to 70.8c, while Cooper Flagg plunged from 42.5c to 28c. This was likely due to a decisive late-season development (such as Flagg resting/injury or Knueppel delivering an award-clinching signature performance), shifting market consensus heavily back to Knueppel. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, Cooper Flagg's price surged from 30.5c to 42.5c, driven by his continued explosive statistical outputs in the final stretch of the regular season, prompting heavy market betting on a potential comeback in the final voting. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 25, 2026, Kon Knueppel's price steadily declined from 70c to 58.8c, while Cooper Flagg rebounded from 28c to 37.5c. This gradual shift occurred because Flagg continued to post elite numbers as the regular season concluded, causing the market to re-evaluate the Rookie of the Year race as a much tighter two-player contest. Mar 18, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, the market recovered from panic and volatility stabilized. Cooper Flagg's price slowly climbed from a low of 27.5c back to 34c, as the market confirmed the Mavericks were not shutting him down, prompting buyers to re-enter on his statistical upside. Meanwhile, Kon Knueppel retraced from a high of 71.8c to 64.15c, reflecting a rebalancing of capital between the top two contenders. Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, Cooper Flagg's price plunged from 36.5c to 27.5c, while Kon Knueppel surged from 63.5c to 71.8c. This drastic move was driven by panic selling over fears that the Mavericks would forcibly rest Flagg to protect their draft position.
AI Analysis
MegaETH airdrop by...?
Crypto|$2.1m Vol|
time75 days 20 hrs

MegaETH airdrop by...?

Top Undervalued
+0.8¢
June 30, 2026(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With about 75 days remaining until June 30, recent prices have fluctuated narrowly between 41c and 4...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
The rules are vague. The title merely asks 'MegaETH airdrop by...?', lacking a specific definition of 'airdrop' (is it snapshot, official announcement, or token distribution?). 'By' implies a deadline, but the options are specific dates, creating ambiguity between 'before' or 'on' that date. Disputes may arise if only plans are announced without execution, or if pre-airdrop activities (points) occur.
AI Analysis
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Elections|$1.0b Vol|
time936 days 20 hrs

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Top Undervalued
+4.8¢
Wes Moore(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
8¢
Arbitrage
3.4%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Plan Description: The probability of AOC securing the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is extremely low in main...
🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)
Undervalued Options Insights:
1. Frontrunner Valuation: Gavin Newsom holds steady around 27c, reflecting his media presence and ca...
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Divergence
The prediction market pricing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the second most likely nominee (8.35%) severely diverges from mainstream media and political pundit consensus. Mainstream views generally consider AOC too progressive to win moderate voters in a general election, making her nomination chances far lower than establishment governors (like Shapiro, Whitmer) or sitting VP Kamala Harris. This divergence largely stems from over-speculation by the crypto community and retail investors in prediction markets, who tend to overvalue highly visible and culturally prominent figures.
AI Analysis
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Soccer|$634.6m Vol|
time95 days 20 hrs

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Canada(Yes)
+0.5¢
Austria(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of mid-April 2026, with only about two months remaining until the World Cup kicks off, the champi...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Politics|$4.5m Vol|
time201 days 20 hrs

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+0.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market expectation for the Democratic Party to retake the House in the 2026 midterms remains hig...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Hedging
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
Congressional control directly dictates future fiscal spending, tax policy, and the regulatory environment. A change in control (leading to a divided government) often implies legislative gridlock for major bills (like spending packages or tax hikes), which can be both bullish (less uncertainty) and bearish (less stimulus). As a key midterm election, the result will have a medium-strength direct impact on US Treasury yields and equity sector rotation.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Republican Party
YesNo
87.5¢
12.5¢
98¢
+10.5¢
Democratic Party
YesNo
11¢
89¢
98¢
+9¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
Mainstream political analysts unanimously classify IL-16 as a 'Solid Republican' district, implying an actual win probability near 99% to 100%. However, the prediction market prices the Republican victory at only 87.5%. This divergence stems primarily from capital efficiency issues (low liquidity and capital lock-up for over half a year), causing traders to avoid buying into a certainty at premium prices, rather than reflecting genuine political risk.

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