[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Retrieve the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) and North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly charts. Analyze the order book depth and user discussions on the Polymarket event page to determine if the current price accurately reflects the meteorological calm, and assess the potential arbitrage space and capital lock-up risk for holding a 'No' position if no storms form.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Retrieve the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) and North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly charts. Analyze the order book depth and user discussions on the Polymarket event page to determine if the current price accurately reflects the meteorological calm, and assess the potential arbitrage space and capital lock-up risk for holding a 'No' position if no storms form.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Historical Frequency Statistics] Search historical Atlantic hurricane data from the past 30 years (1996-2025) to tally the frequency of years where a Named Storm actually formed between December 4 and May 31. Calculate the base rate probability of this 'pre-season storm' occurrence and compare it with the current implied probability on Polymarket to identify any discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Historical Frequency Statistics] Search historical Atlantic hurricane data from the past 30 years (1996-2025) to tally the frequency of years where a Named Storm actually formed between December 4 and May 31. Calculate the base rate probability of this 'pre-season storm' occurrence and compare it with the current implied probability on Polymarket to identify any discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Potential Catalyst Prediction] Search the latest long-range weather model runs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as well as any active 'Invest' areas being monitored by the NHC. List any specific weather systems in the Atlantic basin that show potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 2 weeks, as these serve as the next potential catalysts for price volatility.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Potential Catalyst Prediction] Search the latest long-range weather model runs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as well as any active 'Invest' areas being monitored by the NHC. List any specific weather systems in the Atlantic basin that show potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 2 weeks, as these serve as the next potential catalysts for price volatility.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

Science|$331.9k Vol|

46 days 12 hrs

Named storm forms before hurricane season? - AI Found +27.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.10 09:08

Top Undervalued

+27.5¢

(No)

Named storm forms before hurricane season? AI analysis: • +27.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

It is mid-April, leaving roughly a month and a half until the official start of the Atlantic hurrica...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

42.5¢

57.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+27.5¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

There is a moderate interpretation risk. Key points: 1. **Post-analysis upgrades**: NOAA often re-analyzes data months after the season, upgrading a 'depression' to a 'named storm'. The market's strict settlement timeline (May 31/June 1) excludes these retrospective changes. If NOAA upgrades a May system in July, the market may have already settled incorrectly. 2. **Subtropical Storms**: While NOAA names subtropical storms (resolving 'Yes'), 'Subtropical Depressions' remain unnamed (resolving 'No'). Close attention to official NHC 'Public Advisories' vs. 'Tropical Weather Outlooks' is required for borderline systems.

Movers

Apr 7, 2026 - Apr 9, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 32.5c to 45.5c, likely due to new long-range weather model runs again hinting at potential subtropical cyclogenesis, triggering speculative buying. Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 12.5c to 40.5c, likely due to phantom subtropical cyclogenesis signals in long-range weather models (like the GFS, common in spring), triggering renewed speculative buying. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 40.0c to 12.5c, as previous model disturbances completely dissipated, causing a rapid reversion to the climatological baseline. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fluctuated narrowly between 40.5c and 49c without a clear directional move exceeding 10c. This suggests the market has entered a stalemate, with traders waiting for new weather model signals and a lack of fresh catalysts. Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 20, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fluctuated narrowly between 49c and 50c without clear direction. This suggests the market has entered a stalemate following the mid-March volatility, with traders waiting for new weather model signals and a lack of fresh catalysts. Mar 10, 2026 - Mar 13, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 39.5c to 48c. This movement likely reflects the market re-evaluating potential long-range model disturbances after a brief dip, or buying pressure in a low-liquidity environment, though it did not breach previous highs. Feb 27, 2026 - Mar 5, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' consolidated narrowly between 40c and 41c, showing no volatility exceeding 10c. This indicates the market entered a 'wait-and-see' phase as the previous model threat was digested and no new signals emerged. Feb 22, 2026 - Feb 23, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 31.5c to 49.5c before retracing. This was driven by speculative buying triggered by a short-term signal in weather models (likely GFS) suggesting subtropical genesis, a signal that subsequently faded without realization.

Divergence

The market currently prices the probability of a pre-season named storm at 45.5%, which diverges significantly from meteorological consensus and historical climatological baseline (typically around 10-15%). This divergence is primarily driven by prediction market participants overreacting to unstable, noisy signals in long-range spring weather models, which are notorious for low accuracy at this time of year.