Retrieve the latest trading data for the 'NV-02 House Election Winner' market on Polymarket. Given the low volume (~$6,500), analyze the current bid-ask spread and odds. Combine this with the district's fundamentals (e.g., Cook Partisan Voting Index) and the incumbent Republican's (e.g., Mark Amodei) history to assess if the pricing accurately reflects this as a 'Safe Republican' seat or if there are pricing inefficiencies due to low liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest trading data for the 'NV-02 House Election Winner' market on Polymarket. Given the low volume (~$6,500), analyze the current bid-ask spread and odds. Combine this with the district's fundamentals (e.g., Cook Partisan Voting Index) and the incumbent Republican's (e.g., Mark Amodei) history to assess if the pricing accurately reflects this as a 'Safe Republican' seat or if there are pricing inefficiencies due to low liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for historical election results for Nevada's 2nd Congressional District (NV-02) over the past three cycles (2020, 2022, 2024). Specifically, verify the margin of victory for the Republican candidate to establish a 'base rate' probability for a Democratic upset in the 2026 midterms, and use this to check if the current market odds are overestimating the likelihood of an underdog victory.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for historical election results for Nevada's 2nd Congressional District (NV-02) over the past three cycles (2020, 2022, 2024). Specifically, verify the margin of victory for the Republican candidate to establish a 'base rate' probability for a Democratic upset in the 2026 midterms, and use this to check if the current market odds are overestimating the likelihood of an underdog victory.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Calculate the opportunity cost of capital for betting on this market. Given the election concludes in November 2026 (approx. 8 months away), assuming Republican odds are trading high (e.g., >90 cents), compare the annualized return of locking funds here against current risk-free yields in DeFi protocols or US Treasuries to determine if an arbitrage or directional bet is justified over such a long time horizon.

AI-powered analysis for: Calculate the opportunity cost of capital for betting on this market. Given the election concludes in November 2026 (approx. 8 months away), assuming Republican odds are trading high (e.g., >90 cents), compare the annualized return of locking funds here against current risk-free yields in DeFi protocols or US Treasuries to determine if an arbitrage or directional bet is justified over such a long time horizon.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

NV-02 House Election Winner

Politics|$12.6k Vol|

201 days 17 hrs

NV-02 House Election Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.08 02:42

Top Undervalued

+8¢

Republican Party(Yes)

+7.5¢

Democratic Party(No)

NV-02 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

NV-02 remains a solid R+8 district with strong fundamentals. While the 'Open Seat' scenario due to R...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

77¢

23¢

85¢

15¢

+8¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

22.5¢

77.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+7.5¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Divergence

Mainstream political analysts (such as the Cook Political Report) universally rate NV-02 as 'Safe/Solid Republican', implying a GOP win probability of >95%. However, the prediction market currently prices the Republican probability at only ~76.5%. This significant divergence is likely due to prediction market participants overpricing the risk of an 'Open Seat', combined with low liquidity preventing capital from correcting the mispricing.