AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 04.13 08:55
Top Undervalued
+4.3¢
70-80m(Yes)
+2.9¢
<70m(No)
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market data and price trends on April 13, the preliminary weekend box office est...
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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
70-80m
YesNo
1.7¢
98.3¢
6¢
94¢
+4.3¢
0¢
<70m
YesNo
96.9¢
3.1¢
94¢
6¢
0¢
+2.9¢
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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the <70m option surged from 55.5c to 93.5c, while the 70-80m option plummeted from 86.5c to 6.5c. This was caused by Sunday's weekend estimates or early actuals on Monday further confirming a steeper-than-expected second-weekend drop, making a total below $70 million near-certain.
April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the <70m option plummeted from 68.5c to 27c, while the 70-80m option surged from 32.5c to 86.5c. This was driven by strong Saturday night and Sunday box office estimates, which completely reversed Friday's weakness, making it highly probable for the total to land in the $70M-$80M range.
April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the <70m option surged from 41c to 68.5c, while the 70-80m option plummeted from 63.5c to 30.5c. This is due to preliminary Friday box office numbers indicating a steep drop, making a weekend total under $70M highly likely.
April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the <70m option surged from 16c to 48.5c, while the 70-80m option plummeted from 66.5c to 40c, and the 80-90m option further dropped from 23.5c to 6.5c. This was caused by weaker-than-expected weekday box office actuals following the opening weekend, prompting a severe downward revision in weekend projections.
April 6, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the '70-80m' option rose from 41.5c to a peak of 65.5c, while the '80-90m' option briefly spiked to 60c on April 7 before plummeting to around 15c. The '>90m' option collapsed from 45.5c to roughly 4c. This indicates initial market division over the film's second-weekend legs. As weekday daily box office numbers emerged, bettors adjusted their models to anticipate a heavier drop, firmly settling on the $70M-$80M range at the time.