Moderate risk exists. The rule specifies that the April 10 data point is only 'finalized' once the next data point is available. This means resolution may be delayed, and early readings on April 10 could be revised, potentially misleading traders. Additionally, the strict one-decimal-point precision can cause disputes at boundary values.

April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 40.0-40.4 option plummeted from 50.75c to 0.55c, while the 39.0-39.4 option surged from 11.5c and stabilized around 47.5c. The reason is that newer polling data incorporated into the model underperformed, dragging the once-rising average back down to the 39.4-39.5 border, causing the market to completely price out the possibility of reaching 40%. April 6, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 40.0-40.4 option surged massively from 1.45c to 50.75c, and the 39.5-39.9 option saw high volatility by spiking to 56.5c before retreating to 33.5c, while options 39.0-39.4 and below plummeted (e.g., 38.5-38.9 dropped from 35c to 4.5c). The reason is that as the resolution date is imminent, the latest poll aggregation mean climbed significantly, shifting market consensus rapidly from below 39.5 into the 40.0+ territory. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the 39.5–39.9 option surged from 23c to 43.5c, and the 40.0–40.4 option surged from 2.6c to 19.45c, while the 39.0-39.4 option plummeted from 39.5c to 21.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, minor adjustments in the latest poll aggregator data likely shifted the mean towards higher brackets (39.5 and above), prompting rapid market realignment. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the 38.5–38.9 option plunged from 32c to 12c, and the 40.0-40.4 option dropped from 27.5c to 10c. The reason is that recent new polling data stabilized the aggregated average above 39% and below 40%, narrowing the uncertainty interval. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of the 40.5+ option plummeted from 26.5c to 4.5c. As the resolution date approaches, the likelihood of a massive surge in approval ratings was invalidated by data, causing the market to quickly price out extreme tail risks.