What will JD Vance say during bilateral events with Orbán?
Trump|$78.2k Vol|
time0 s

What will JD Vance say during bilateral events with Orbán? - AI Mispricing Alert

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Last updated: 04.07 17:35
Top Undervalued
+10.9¢
Crazy(Yes)
+3¢
Venezuela(Yes)
+2.9¢
Slovakia(Yes)

What will JD Vance say during bilateral events with Orbán? AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market data, the Yes prices for many options surged to >99c on April 7 (e.g., El...
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Highest temperature in Beijing on April 17?
Weather|$135.3k Vol|
time35 mins

Highest temperature in Beijing on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+81¢
22°C(No)
+51¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Beijing Capital International Air...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 23°C option surged from 30c to 50.5c as the resolution day arrived and real-time weather data further solidified the core temperature range, squeezing out edge possibilities. April 16, 2026 - April 16, 2026: Several key temperature options experienced drastic swings (>10c). The Yes price for 25°C plummeted from 33.5c in the morning to 6.5c by evening. Meanwhile, 22°C surged from 8.5c to 33c before pulling back, and 23°C climbed from 12c to 30c. This volatility was driven by intraday adjustments in weather models as the resolution day (the 17th) approached, heavily discounting temperatures of 25°C and above and concentrating funds into the 22°C-24°C core range. April 15, 2026 (06:18-07:23): The Yes price for 24°C surged from 21.5c to 32c, while the Yes price for 30°C plummeted from 13c to 0.8c. This was driven by the latest weather forecasts nearing the resolution date, which confidently ruled out extreme high temperatures, causing funds to concentrate on the most likely outcome.
AI Analysis
Explain like I'm 5: What are the exact resolution criteria and data sources used to determine the winning temperature range for Beijing on April 17?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 17?
Weather|$94.8k Vol|
time35 mins

Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+31.8¢
27°C(No)
+30.7¢
28°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data, the highest temperature at Chongqing Jiangbei Internation...
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Movers
Between 05:58 and 08:08 on April 17, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 15.5c to 40.5c, as the latest meteorological data updates right before resolution indicated temperatures might touch 28°C, triggering a buying spree. Between 01:38 and 07:03 on April 17, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 18c to 68c, as actual real-time weather and short-term high-precision forecasts gradually confirmed 27°C as the most likely highest temperature. Between 01:38 and 08:08 on April 17, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 32.5c to 0.05c, because as time passed, the actual temperature had already exceeded or was confirmed to exceed the 26°C range. Between 08:18 and 14:48 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 28.5c to 39c before falling back to 25.5c. This was driven by intraday short-term weather model updates suggesting potential localized warming, causing a temporary buying spree before forecasts stabilized. Between 05:03 and 10:28 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 28°C option climbed from 11.5c to 21.5c as traders hedged against extreme high-temperature tail risks, before retracing as forecasts normalized. Between 06:18 and 22:33 on April 15, 2026, the price of the 25°C option rose from 14.5c to 26.5c, as some meteorological forecasts downgraded daytime highs due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
AI Analysis
What are the exact resolution rules and criteria for determining the highest temperature in Chongqing (ZUCK station) on April 17 using Wunderground data?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Business|$52.6k Vol|
time622 days 12 hrs

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Top Undervalued
+16.5¢
(OpenAI)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest market intelligence (e.g., an April 3, 2026 Axios report), both Anthropic an...
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Hedging
AMZN
MSFT
This event is directly linked to the capitalization process of two AI giants. An OpenAI IPO directly impacts the valuation logic of its biggest backer, Microsoft (MSFT), while an Anthropic IPO directly affects its key investors, Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL). An IPO announcement from either would be seen as a major catalyst for the entire AI sector and the Nasdaq 100, potentially triggering significant market movement.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?', specifically analyzing the implied probability of the '50-50' outcome (Neither/Same Day). Combine this with recent user discussions regarding OpenAI's potential restructuring into a for-profit entity versus Anthropic's 'Long-Term Benefit Trust' constraints to update the assessment of fair value.
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
Politics|$76.5k Vol|
time73 days 12 hrs

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Top Undervalued
+15¢
Chuck Schumer(No)
+13¢
Lisa Murkowski(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As a typical conservative and institutionalist candidate, Kevin Warsh is almost certain to receive o...
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
If Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, he may be perceived as hawkish or more friendly to deregulation, directly impacting the yield curve and the Dollar. While the specific votes of individual Senators (like Warren or Sanders) have limited direct market impact, they serve as leading indicators for Warsh's confirmation prospects. If key swing votes lean towards Warsh, it signals a high probability of confirmation, triggering a 'Warsh trade' (typically implying higher yields or a rally in specific bank stocks).
Movers
April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, John Kennedy's price spiked from 57.15c to 78.7c, correcting a previous baseless sharp drop and moving back toward the expected approval range for a standard Republican senator. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, Kevin Cramer's price rapidly recovered from 84.5c to 95.8c, correcting previous anomalous drops and returning to the standard fair value range for a GOP senator. March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Kevin Cramer's price plunged from 91.5c to 71c, while Chuck Schumer's price spiked from 11c to 35.5c. This inverse movement suggests market speculation about a bipartisan deal or panic selling due to illiquidity. March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Elizabeth Warren's price rose anomalously from 1.75c to 13.25c, lacking fundamental support and likely resulting from algorithmic correlation with Schumer's rise or hedging. March 12, 2026 - March 14, 2026, Thom Tillis's price rebounded from 66c to 81c, correcting a previous oversold condition. March 5, 2026 - March 14, 2026, Lisa Murkowski's price plunged from 87c to 65c, rallied to 76c on March 13, and fell back to 59c on March 14, highlighting high market uncertainty and gaming around moderate votes.
Divergence
There is a notable divergence between current prediction market prices and mainstream political consensus. According to standard Washington analysis, as a Republican-nominated establishment candidate for Fed Chair, Warsh is highly likely to secure near-unanimous GOP support while facing near-unanimous Democratic opposition. However, the market is pricing firm Republicans like John Kennedy (74.55c) and Thom Tillis (86c) far too low, while simultaneously overpricing the likelihood of Democratic leader Chuck Schumer voting 'Yes' (23c). This pricing distortion is likely a byproduct of lower liquidity in this specific market or irrational long-shot betting by participants.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest market data for the 'Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation' event. Given the low liquidity of ~$4.5k, specifically analyze the bid-ask spreads and order depth for ideologically opposed Senators (e.g., Bernie Sanders vs. Thom Tillis) to assess if current odds accurately price the confirmation risk associated with Warsh's hawkish monetary background.
What will Amazon (AMZN) hit in April 2026?
Finance|$40.9k Vol|
time13 days 16 hrs

What will Amazon (AMZN) hit in April 2026?

Top Undervalued
+42¢
↑ $260(No)
+5.1¢
↑ $276(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 20 days until expiration, the market is strongly pricing in an upward movement for AM...
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Rule Risk
The term 'hit' creates ambiguity regarding whether intraday highs/lows or daily closing prices count for settlement. Without a specified data source, momentary flash crashes or spikes could lead to disputes. Additionally, the mix of directional options ('↑' and '↓') poses a risk: if volatility causes the price to touch both upper and lower targets within the period, the settlement priority or multi-winner logic needs to be explicitly defined.
Hedging
Nasdaq 100
AMZN
This event is directly linked to Amazon's (AMZN) stock price. If the market resolves to extreme targets (e.g., hitting below $132 or above $296), it implies a significant trend movement or volatility event for the stock (Score 4). Given Amazon's heavy weighting in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, such volatility would likely cause tradable ripples in the indices (Score 3). It serves as a direct financial hedge.
Movers
From 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-10, the price of ↑ $244 surged from 29.5c to 56c, driven by strong market expectations that AMZN will continue its upward trajectory in April, attracting significant bullish capital. From 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-10, the price of ↓ $200 plunged from 34c to 12c, as the stock's strong performance drastically reduced the perceived likelihood of a major pullback within the remaining 20 days. From 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-25, the price of ↓ $200 surged from 40.5c to 66.5c, while ↓ $180 plunged from 56.5c to 22c, and ↓ $168 plunged from 53.5c to 14c. This was caused by the correction of severe overpricing in deep OTM bearish options, as market liquidity returned or mispricing was fixed, shifting capital to more reasonable near-the-money bearish options. From 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-24, the price of ↑ $232 surged from 41c to 63.5c, and ↑ $224 surged from 42c to 66c, likely due to strong bullish sentiment or short-term capital inflows.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest real-time data from the Polymarket event page, specifically analyzing what the extremely low volume of $150.83 implies for liquidity traps, and check if there are any real bids/asks in the order book.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Crazy
YesNo
19.1¢
80.9¢
30¢
70¢
+10.9¢
0¢
Venezuela
YesNo
2.05¢
97.95¢
5¢
95¢
+3¢
0¢

Expand to view all 6 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
There are significant rule traps: first, only events featuring 'both' Vance and Orbán count, meaning solo speeches or interviews by Vance on the same day are excluded; second, only live-broadcast remarks are valid; finally, exact frequency counts (e.g., 8+ times) often lead to resolution disputes.
Exotics
Betting on the specific vocabulary and exact word counts (e.g., 'God 3+ times') a politician will use during a bilateral meeting is a highly niche and novelty entertainment market.
Movers
On April 7, 2026, the price of 'EU / European Union' plummeted from 79.5c to a low of 2.5c (currently recovering to 32c), as Vance did not mention the EU as frequently as expected during his remarks. On April 7, 2026, the price of 'Nuclear' surged from 39c to 99.8c, indicating Vance mentioned the term during the event. On April 7, 2026, the price of 'Oil 2+ times' surged from 40c to 99.95c, confirming he mentioned oil at least twice. On April 7, 2026, the price of 'Russia / Ukraine 6+ times' surged from 45.5c to 99.75c, showing that this high-frequency condition was met during the broadcast. Between April 6, 2026 and April 7, 2026, the price of 'Election 4+ times' rose from 31c to 39.5c, and then surged to 99.95c on April 7, as the election topic was heavily discussed and met the threshold. Between April 4, 2026 and April 5, 2026, the price of 'Trump' surged from 52c to 88c, driven by heavily increased market expectations that the two conservative leaders will mention Donald Trump during their meetings. Between April 4, 2026 and April 5, 2026, the price of 'EU / European Union' surged from 51.5c to 84c, reflecting strong anticipation of discussions regarding US-EU relations and European Union policies. Between April 4, 2026 and April 5, 2026, the price of 'Hungary / Hungarian 8+ times' rose from 51.5c to 74.5c, indicating the market believes there is a very high likelihood of the host country being mentioned frequently during the bilateral events in Hungary. Between April 4, 2026 and April 5, 2026, the price of 'Viktor / Orbán 4+ times' increased from 51.5c to 67c. Between April 4, 2026 and April 5, 2026, the price of 'Oil 2+ times' rose from 51.5c to 75c, reflecting growing expectations that energy issues will be a significant topic in their dialogue.

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