AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 04.09 18:03
Top Undervalued
+12.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+10.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
WI-08 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +12.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Undervalued Options Insights:
WI-08 (Wisconsin's 8th congressional district) is fundamentally a safe Republican seat. Incumbent Re...
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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Republican Party
YesNo
77.5¢
22.5¢
90¢
10¢
+12.5¢
0¢
Democratic Party
YesNo
20.5¢
79.5¢
10¢
90¢
0¢
+10.5¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 6, 2026 - April 8, 2026: The price of the Republican Party plummeted from 79.5c to 59.5c on April 7, before swiftly rebounding to 78c on April 8. This drastic short-term drop was likely due to a 'fat finger' trade in a low-liquidity environment or a brief panic selloff regarding redistricting rumors. This is evidenced by the fact that the Democratic Party's Yes price did not surge proportionally (only ticking up slightly from 19.5c to 21.5c), indicating that capital was not actually shifting toward a Democratic victory.
April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026: Prices remained stable, with the Republican Party holding a narrow range around 80c, showing a muted market response to ongoing political noise.
Divergence
The market is currently pricing in a ~21.5% implied probability of a Democratic victory, which diverges significantly from mainstream electoral consensus. Major nonpartisan election forecasters universally rate WI-08 as a 'Solid/Safe Republican' district, typically assigning it less than a 10% chance of flipping. The prediction market appears to be heavily overpricing the tail risk of potentially unfavorable redistricting or exhibiting structural capital inefficiencies.