The market's rules are highly specific and contain several potential pitfalls: it only includes a specific Truth Social account (@realDonaldTrump); text in quotes and replies counts, but pure retweets (ReTruths) or quoted text does not; text in images counts if spelled out fully, but animated gifs/videos do not; plurals and possessives are allowed, but other forms or misspellings are not; compound words count. These nuances make misjudgment easy.

This is a market predicting the specific vocabulary used by a politician on social media. While not entirely unheard of, it carries a certain level of entertainment value and novelty compared to mainstream election or policy predictions, placing it in the moderately exotic range.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'Poll / Polling' surged from 70c to 99.95c, as it is highly likely Trump already posted the term. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'POTUS' surged from 31.5c to 61.5c before settling at 54.5c, reflecting shifting short-term expectations for commentary on Biden. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'Viktor / Orban / Orbán' surged from 16c to 59c, adjusting to relevant diplomatic news. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'Military Operation' surged from 21c to 87.5c, driven by recent geopolitical tensions leading to high expectations of his commentary. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'New York Times' spiked from 41.5c to 76c before settling around 60c, reflecting abrupt speculation regarding the media outlet. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'Epic Fury' surged from 32c to 58.5c, indicating expectations of his strong rhetorical usage. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of 'Endorsed / Endorsement' surged from 52.5c to 81c, as Trump frequently posts endorsements recently. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of 'China / Xi' surged from 69c to 81c, driven by increased discussions on geopolitical topics involving China. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of 'Ballroom' surged from 52.5c to 62c, likely related to increased mentions of specific event or rally locations.

Predicting the exact number of 6.5+ earthquakes globally in a specific week is highly niche; aside from a few geology enthusiasts, the general public rarely tracks or thinks about such high-frequency natural disaster statistics.

April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of option 0 rose from 46.5c to 60c. The reason is that as the time window progresses without any earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher occurring, the objective probability of having 0 such earthquakes naturally increases. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of option 2 plummeted from 47c to 14.5c, option 1 dropped from 50.5c to 35.5c, option 0 fell from 58.5c to 46.5c, and other low-probability options (like 3, 4, 5, >5) crashed from near 50c to around 1c-3c. The reason was a massive market correction; early illiquidity and irrational pricing caused the sum of 'Yes' probabilities to vastly exceed 100%, and traders subsequently arbitraged the prices down to accurately align with the statistical Poisson distribution of global earthquake frequencies.

There are significant traps and resolution risks. The biggest risk is the explicit exclusion of written text (e.g., Truth Social posts), limiting valid instances to publicly recorded audio/video. Furthermore, verifying that a video was actually filmed (not just posted) within the timeframe, and ruling out AI-generated deepfakes, will greatly increase resolution difficulty and dispute risks.

This is a quintessential novelty/entertainment market. The general public or analysts do not typically forecast whether a politician will verbally utter highly specific and dramatic phrases like 'Peanut', 'Gay for Palestine', or 'Epic Fury' within a random week.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of 'See what happens' surged from 70.5c to 89.5c. As his high-frequency catchphrase, it has highly likely been confirmed as mentioned. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of 'Losing MAGA' skyrocketed from 12.5c to 68.5c, due to potential video clips leaking recently that triggered intense market speculation. April 12, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of 'Regarded' surged from 24c to 65c, fueled by market guesses that he used the term in a recent speech or interview. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of 'Barack Hussein Obama' dropped from 86.5c to 62c, as the anticipated targeted attacks failed to materialize in recent speeches, causing probability to decay with time. April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'Melania' surged from 49c to 82c, as recent news and discussions involved his family, and the market expects him to mention her in his speeches. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'Transgender' dropped from 85.5c to 73.5c, cooling off after a previous surge related to policy discussions, as specific mentions remain unconfirmed. April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'Boy oh boy' surged from 18c to 74c, because the term was likely mentioned in a recent public recording or rally, triggering rapid market pricing for confirmation. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'Nuke' plummeted from 85c to 42c, because earlier rumors regarding an interview touching on nuclear weapons remained unverified, prompting speculators to take profits and sharply reducing expectations. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'Epic Fury' dropped sharply from 87c to 51.5c and rebounded to 65c, mainly because the term hasn't been used in recent rallies yet, causing wild swings as time decays. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'Gulf of America' surged from 41.5c to 67.5c and further to 83c, likely driven by news of an upcoming speech regarding coastal regions or energy policies. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'Two week / two-week' quickly rose from 55.5c to 71.5c. This is his signature catchphrase for teasing policy announcements or timelines, and the market is betting on a recurrence.

April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Frank Ocean's price plummeted from 46.5c to 3.65c as the market realized his Weekend 2 appearance is highly unlikely, popping the speculative bubble. April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, The Weeknd's price plummeted from 46.5c to 8.5c as the extremely thin order book corrected after speculative buying subsided. April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Billie Eilish's price dropped heavily from 35c to 7.45c due to the correction of irrational premiums. April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Snoop Dogg's price surged from 3.55c to 26.95c, and Drake's surged from 10.5c to 24.1c, demonstrating how a few buy orders can drastically inflate prices in an illiquid market. April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Usher's price fluctuated between 44.15c and 35.65c, driven by speculative trading in a liquidity-starved market. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Frank Ocean's price surged from 3.6c to 45.55c due to extreme illiquidity and irrational speculative buying. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Travis Scott's price experienced violent fluctuations, plummeting from 41.5c to 13.15c, surging to 62.35c, plummeting again to 5.5c, and finally rebounding to 19.95c, due to a highly illiquid order book being swept in both directions by market orders. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Snoop Dogg's price plummeted from 50c to 12.5c, rebounded to 41c, and finally fell to 4.5c, indicating extreme volatility driven by small orders in a very thin market.

Prediction markets assign relatively high probabilities (20%-35%) to megastars like Usher, Snoop Dogg, and Drake making an appearance, while mainstream consensus (based on Weekend 1 facts) considers Bieber's set to be acoustic and intimate, essentially ruling out these A-listers. The divergence stems from extremely poor liquidity in the long-tail options, which are being pushed up by a few gamblers holding onto unrealistic hopium.

April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged from 73.5c to 97.2c. The reason is that as the expiration date nears, its position on the leaderboard has become unshakeable, and the market has completely priced out remaining uncertainty. April 13, 2026, the price of grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning crashed from 18.5c to around 2c, as its brief weekend rebound failed to sustain and pose a substantial threat to the top spot. April 12, 2026, the price of grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning surged from 3c to 18.2c, while claude-opus-4-6-thinking rose from 64.5c to 75.5c. This was likely due to a new wave of community voting over the weekend causing fluctuations in the narrow margins at the top of the leaderboard. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged from 46c to 63.5c, while almost all other options, including gemini-3.1-pro-preview (crashed from 48c to 2.75c) and claude-opus-4-6 (crashed from 46c to 1.45c), experienced catastrophic drops. This was caused by an update to the Chatbot Arena leaderboard data making the outcome much clearer.