The complexity lies in the market cap calculation (including all outstanding share classes using the publicly traded class's price). Furthermore, the specific cutoff date for the IPO and rules for abbreviated sessions or circuit breakers add conditions. Bettors must carefully read the prospectus and consider IPO delay risks, posing moderate rule risks.

The prediction market currently prices the 'Yes' shares for all options relatively evenly around 25c, implying a flat probability distribution across all market cap ranges. However, official filings and mainstream financial data clearly indicate a target market cap between $81M and $121.5M based on the $4-$6 IPO price range and total outstanding shares. The market fails to reflect this concentrated valuation, showing a significant divergence from the fundamental data.

Sam Altman receiving equity typically signals the completion of OpenAI's restructuring into a for-profit entity. This has direct financial and governance implications for Microsoft (OpenAI's major investor), potentially removing the risk of a non-profit board suddenly firing the CEO, which markets would view favorably. However, it could also invite regulatory scrutiny. While the impact is concentrated on Microsoft, structural changes at the AI leader create minor sentiment spillover for the Nasdaq 100.

The core of this market directly correlates with Bitcoin's price. A trend towards 'Yes' implies market expectations of a massive Bitcoin bull run or a significant correction for top tech giants (like current leaders NVDA or AAPL). This offers medium hedging utility for Bitcoin itself (Score 3) as a long-cycle macro bet. For top tech stocks, the impact is lower, serving more as a symbolic comparison rather than a direct causal price driver.

This topic is at the technological frontier. While somewhat esoteric to the general public (categorized under singularity prediction), it is a very hot and standard benchmark topic within the AI community and prediction markets. It is not as outlandish as 'Jesus resurrection' but far more niche than 'Who wins the Super Bowl,' giving it a moderate exotic score.

If an AI successfully wins an IMO gold medal, it would represent a massive breakthrough in logical reasoning, far exceeding simple language model capabilities. This would directly benefit the parent companies of frontier AI labs like DeepMind (Google) or OpenAI (Microsoft), as it marks a critical step towards AGI. It would create a strong positive shock for tech sentiment, especially for companies heavily invested in AI reasoning. For chipmakers like Nvidia, it serves as continued validation of compute demand.

From April 2 to April 4, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 58c to 78.5c. The reason is that as the AIMO Progress Prize 3 deadline (April 2026) approaches, market expectations for imminent submissions from top AI labs have heated up, rapidly reversing the previous short-term dip. From March 14 to March 17, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 66c to 71.5c. The reason was likely a restoration of market confidence after an early March correction, as traders reassessed potential AI performance for the 2026 season (e.g., AIMO Progress Prize and IMO Shanghai). From Feb 27 to Mar 4, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 88c to 76.5c due to a market correction of previously extreme optimism amidst a news vacuum regarding specific 2026 official participation. From Feb 9 to Feb 10, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dipped slightly from 81.5c to 77.5c due to normal liquidity adjustments.

Predicting the top AI model on a specific leaderboard with distinct settings on a particular date is a relatively niche topic followed by the tech community and prediction market players. It is not an everyday mainstream thought, though it possesses a solid industry logic.

April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking continued to climb from 79c to 91.5c, as the snapshot date approaches with its #1 leaderboard rank unchallenged, further solidifying market confidence. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged from 47c to 79c (peaking at 86.5c), likely because the model officially took the #1 spot on the live Arena leaderboard, establishing a clear lead. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of claude-opus-4-6 plummeted from 47c to 4c, as it was directly outperformed and cannibalized by its own 'thinking' variant. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of gemini-3.1-pro-preview crashed from 47.5c to 1.2c, dropping out of championship contention due to insufficient ELO gains against the newest Claude models. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of kimi-k2.5-thinking collapsed to <1c, as it lost any mathematical chance to surpass the new frontrunners before the snapshot date.

Moderate definition risk. While 'dLLM' has a technical meaning (diffusion-based text generation), marketing terminology can obscure reality. If xAI releases a model using some 'diffusion' techniques but remains core Auto-Regressive, or vice versa, the technical paper's wording will be decisive. Additionally, the 'publicly accessible' requirement excludes closed betas, a common AI release strategy, potentially causing disputes.

This is a highly specific and technically advanced prediction. While LLMs are mainstream, 'dLLM' (Diffusion Large Language Model) represents a niche research branch distinct from mainstream GPT-style models. It qualifies as a deep-tech niche prediction, unfamiliar to the general public.

The resolution relies on a 'credible consensus of reporting,' which is highly subjective. Given past controversies involving individuals falsely claiming to be Satoshi, this vague criteria could lead to significant settlement disputes.

Satoshi's identity is the most famous unsolved mystery in the crypto space. While the topic is widely discussed, betting on the exact timeframe of a definitive reveal carries a strong novelty and entertainment aspect.

If Satoshi's identity is definitively proven (especially involving transfers from original wallets), it would send a massive shockwave through the crypto market. Fears of a mass sell-off of Satoshi's estimated 1.1 million Bitcoin would trigger extreme price volatility and potential panic dumping in BTC.

While OpenAI is a globally scrutinized company, issuing a crypto token is not a standard business path for an entity with its complex non-profit/capped-profit structure. Thus, it is a speculative and topical question, though not entirely inconceivable given precedents like Worldcoin.

If OpenAI launches a token, it would significantly impact Worldcoin (WLD), a project linked to Sam Altman (potential crash due to substitution or rally due to correlation). Microsoft (MSFT), as a major investor, might see minor price action due to regulatory risks or new revenue streams. The broader crypto market (BTC) would likely view this as a major bullish signal for Web3/AI integration.

This is a moderately exotic market. While OpenAI is a global tech focal point, the premise of it being 'acquired' is aggressive and unconventional given its massive valuation (>$80B) and unique governance structure aiming to benefit humanity rather than shareholders, distinguishing it from standard startup exits.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the core correlated asset as it already holds significant profit rights; a full acquisition would trigger antitrust scrutiny and reshape the AI landscape, significantly impacting its stock. Google (GOOGL) would face intensified competitive pressure. An acquisition would signal AI acceleration or consolidation, rippling through the Nasdaq 100.

The current market prices an acquisition at around 11.5% probability, while mainstream financial circles and antitrust experts generally consider such a transaction virtually impossible. The massive valuation and harsh antitrust regulatory environment pose insurmountable barriers. The market pricing significantly diverges from the consensus of mainstream experts, mainly due to retail investors in prediction markets over-speculating on any rumors in the AI sector.

This is a specific financial scenario derived from social media interactions (between Musk and Ackman on X) rather than a standard financial calendar event. It combines a high-profile private company (SpaceX) with a novel, niche financing vehicle (SPARC), making it speculative and unique.

This market is highly correlated with Tesla (TSLA) stock. The rules explicitly mention a potential offering of 'SPARs' (subscription warrants) to Tesla shareholders. If this event resolves to 'Yes', it effectively functions as a highly valuable special dividend (access to SpaceX pre-IPO) for TSLA holders, which would likely cause a significant bullish price movement.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price for the April 17 option dropped from 44.5c to 27.5c (later rebounding to 38.5c). The reason is that as the deadline approaches further without any major incidents meeting the 'Partial/Full Outage' criteria on the OpenAI system, the accelerated time decay has led to a rapid reassessment of the probability for the Yes option. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for the April 17 option fluctuated wildly between 30c and 62.5c, eventually stabilizing around 44c. The reason is that as the deadline approaches without any major incidents meeting the 'Partial/Full Outage' criteria on the OpenAI system, time decay has led to a rapid reassessment of the probability for the Yes option. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the Yes price for the April 17 option dropped from 62.5c to around 43.5c. The reason is that as the deadline approaches without any major incidents meeting the 'Partial/Full Outage' criteria on the OpenAI system, time decay has led to a rapid reassessment of the probability for the Yes option. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for the April 10 option dropped from 30c to 15c, and the Yes price for the April 17 option fell from 62.5c to 52c, similarly due to approaching deadlines without major outages.

The rules contain specific constraints on the definition of a 'successor', explicitly excluding simple chip upgrades (e.g., an M5 refresh). This creates a critical gray area: if Apple releases an updated 'Vision Pro' with internal spec bumps but without the '2' moniker, it could cause dispute. Additionally, the 'available for purchase' requirement is strict; a mere announcement is insufficient.

This event is directly tied to Apple's (AAPL) hardware innovation cycle and the execution of its AR/VR strategy. A timely release of Vision Pro 2 would significantly bolster market confidence in its spatial computing future, creating a material impact on the stock price (Score 3). However, given the limited impact of a single hardware product on the massive Nasdaq 100 index, the index score remains low. It serves as a potential hedge for Apple's supply chain and XR sector sentiment.

This is a technical prediction regarding the underlying architecture of AI models. While AI is a hot topic, the specific question of 'whether diffusion models will beat Transformers in text generation' is a hardcore research query, unfamiliar to the general public, placing it at a medium level of novelty/specialization.