Background
Politics|$4,522 Vol|
time199 days 3 hrs

OH-08 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+16.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+15.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As a deep-red stronghold (Cook PVI R+12), OH-08 possesses an extremely solid Republican base. While ...
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Divergence
There is a significant divergence between the market pricing (~83% GOP win probability) and the consensus of election forecasters (e.g., Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball), which rate this district as 'Solid Republican' (implying a near 100% win probability). This discrepancy is primarily driven by capital inefficiency and lack of liquidity in prediction markets, leading to severe undervaluation of near-certain events.
AI Analysis
Politics|$4,516 Vol|
time199 days 3 hrs

GA-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+6.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
GA-01 is a solid Republican stronghold (Cook PVI R+9) in coastal Georgia, where the GOP consistently...
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AI Analysis
Culture|$4,516 Vol|
time35 days 3 hrs

Anime Awards: Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Arabic) Winner

Top Undervalued
+8¢
Ghada Omar as Yor Forger (SPY x FAMILY Season 3)(No)
+6¢
Tariq Obaid as Taro Sakamoto (SAKAMOTO DAYS)(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the 'Yes' prices across all options is 253.5c, indicating severe mispricing or low liquid...
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Exotics
While anime awards have popularity within the fandom, betting specifically on the 'Arabic voice acting' category is highly niche and largely ignored by anyone outside of extremely hardcore fan circles or industry insiders.
AI Analysis
Elections|$4,508 Vol|
time199 days 3 hrs

FL-02 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+11.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
FL-02 is a 'Solid Republican' district in Florida with a Cook PVI of R+8. Incumbent Neal Dunn is dee...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$4,467 Vol|
time199 days 3 hrs

IL-08 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
IL-08 is a D+5 Chicago suburban district. In the 2026 midterm environment, with Donald Trump in his ...
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AI Analysis
Culture|$4,416 Vol|
time2 days 3 hrs

Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of April 25

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
Man I Need - Olivia Dean(No)
+5.5¢
I Just Might - Bruno Mars(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest prediction market data and streaming tracking forecasts, 'Man I Need' is showing...
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Movers
April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 'Man I Need - Olivia Dean' surged from 48.5c to 85c. This was driven by its streaming and radio data for the tracking week significantly exceeding expectations, locking in a top-two position. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 'I Just Might - Bruno Mars' plummeted from 42.5c to 11c, as the dominant performance of competitors pushed it out of contention for the #2 spot. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of 'Be Her - Ella Langley' plummeted from 39c to 7.1c, mainly due to fading early chart momentum and being squeezed out by other hit singles.
AI Analysis
Tech|$4,403 Vol|
time257 days 3 hrs

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
AI models (such as those from DeepMind and OpenAI) already demonstrated gold-medal capabilities on I...
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Exotics
This topic is at the technological frontier. While somewhat esoteric to the general public (categorized under singularity prediction), it is a very hot and standard benchmark topic within the AI community and prediction markets. It is not as outlandish as 'Jesus resurrection' but far more niche than 'Who wins the Super Bowl,' giving it a moderate exotic score.
Hedging
GOOGL
NVDA
MSFT
If an AI successfully wins an IMO gold medal, it would represent a massive breakthrough in logical reasoning, far exceeding simple language model capabilities. This would directly benefit the parent companies of frontier AI labs like DeepMind (Google) or OpenAI (Microsoft), as it marks a critical step towards AGI. It would create a strong positive shock for tech sentiment, especially for companies heavily invested in AI reasoning. For chipmakers like Nvidia, it serves as continued validation of compute demand.
Movers
From April 2 to April 4, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 58c to 78.5c. The reason is that as the AIMO Progress Prize 3 deadline (April 2026) approaches, market expectations for imminent submissions from top AI labs have heated up, rapidly reversing the previous short-term dip. From March 14 to March 17, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 66c to 71.5c. The reason was likely a restoration of market confidence after an early March correction, as traders reassessed potential AI performance for the 2026 season (e.g., AIMO Progress Prize and IMO Shanghai). From Feb 27 to Mar 4, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 88c to 76.5c due to a market correction of previously extreme optimism amidst a news vacuum regarding specific 2026 official participation. From Feb 9 to Feb 10, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dipped slightly from 81.5c to 77.5c due to normal liquidity adjustments.
AI Analysis
Politics|$4,361 Vol|
time199 days 3 hrs

TN-06 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
TN-06 is a deep red district (Cook PVI R+17). Although incumbent Republican John Rose has confirmed ...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$4,333 Vol|
time199 days 3 hrs

FL-22 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+8¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
FL-22 is a solid Democratic district (Harris +5.5% in 2024), and incumbent Lois Frankel historically...
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Movers
From April 4 to April 6, 2026, the Democratic Party option surged from 56c to 67c, as the market corrected previous retirement rumors and the district's fundamental advantages regained dominance in sentiment. On March 5, 2026, the Republican option saw a significant intraday retracement, dropping from a high of 50c to 42c, suggesting wavering confidence in GOP competitiveness or profit-taking from earlier speculation. From Feb 9 to Feb 10, 2026, the Republican price surged from 30c to 41.5c, driven by speculative betting on a potential 'Open Seat' scenario following rumors of incumbent Lois Frankel's retirement.
Divergence
There is a divergence between market pricing (67% win probability for Democrats) and mainstream political consensus, which typically rates this district as Likely/Solid Democrat (probability >85%). This undervaluation is likely due to early rumors of the incumbent's retirement trapping long-term capital, causing the market to lag behind fundamental consensus.
AI Analysis
Culture|$4,327 Vol|
time3 days 3 hrs

What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued
+21.5¢
Untold: Jail Blazers(Yes)
+16¢
A Quiet Place Part II(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market price movements, 'Untold: Jail Blazers' (24.5c) and 'A Quiet Place Part I...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact #2 movie on a streaming platform for a specific week is somewhat niche and novelty compared to mainstream political or financial events, but it remains a standard pop culture market.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 'Untold: Jail Blazers' surged from 26c to a high of 47c before settling at 24.5c, as early viewership data suggested a strong push for #2, followed by tightening competition. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 'Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle' dropped from 27c to 6c, as new daily data showed its viewership ranking slipping, losing its edge for the #2 spot. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 'Thrash' fell sharply from 25.5c to 5c, likely because it is either securing the #1 spot or falling out of the top two entirely. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 'Beast' plummeted from 27c to 3c, as its viewership performance failed to hold up. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 'Anaconda' crashed from 26c to under 1c, completely falling out of contention. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 'The Truth & Tragedy of Moriah Wilson' crashed from 27.5c to 1c, losing all competitiveness.
AI Analysis
Sports|$4,310 Vol|
time209 days 3 hrs

Major League Baseball: 2026 NL MVP

Top Undervalued
+5.4¢
Francisco Lindor(No)
+3.2¢
Fernando Tatis Jr.(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
It is mid-April 2026, roughly two weeks into the regular season. Shohei Ohtani's price has surged fr...
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Divergence
Traditional sportsbooks rarely assign an implied probability higher than 50% (minus odds) for any MLB MVP candidate in April, given the high variance and injury risk inherent in a 162-game season. However, Ohtani is trading at 64.5c (64.5% implied probability) in the prediction market. This significant divergence suggests that retail prediction markets may be heavily influenced by fan bias, overpricing Ohtani's recent highlights while neglecting the baseline rates of injury and long-term variance in baseball.
AI Analysis
Weather|$4,306 Vol|
time1 days 15 hrs

Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 19?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
30°C(No)
+10¢
31°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Wuhan Tianhe International Airpor...
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Exotics
While weather forecasting is a part of daily life, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city to a 1-degree precision in a prediction market is a niche and somewhat novel market, typically appealing only to weather enthusiasts or specific bettors seeking short-term deterministic resolutions.
AI Analysis

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