Background
Politics|$2,434 Vol|
time199 days 13 hrs

NC-13 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+12.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+10.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NC-13 remains a 'Solid Republican' district. Incumbent Brad Knott is seeking re-election with a form...
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AI Analysis
Finance|$2,429 Vol|
time5 days 2 hrs

Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price is stable around 90.5 cents, up slightly from the previous 89 cents. This f...
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Hedging
CME
This event directly predicts the quarterly earnings outcome for CME Group. Whether the company beats earnings estimates typically causes a moderate, tradable direct impact (around 5%) on its stock price.
AI Analysis
Politics|$2,426 Vol|
time199 days 13 hrs

GA-10 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+12¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+10.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
GA-10 is a solid Republican stronghold with a Cook PVI of R+13. Incumbent Mike Collins is politicall...
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Divergence
Mainstream experts and forecasting models (e.g., Cook Political Report) rate GA-10 as 'Solid Republican' with a win probability near 100%. However, the market price is only 86.5c. This divergence is primarily driven by illiquidity and the opportunity cost of locking up capital in prediction markets, rather than a genuine disagreement on electoral fundamentals.
AI Analysis
Elections|$2,412 Vol|
time199 days 13 hrs

RI-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+4.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Rhode Island's 1st District (RI-01) is a very safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+12. Incumben...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$2,392 Vol|
time199 days 13 hrs

TX-36 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+11¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
TX-36 is one of the most solid Republican strongholds in Texas (Cook PVI R+18). Incumbent GOP Congre...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$2,391 Vol|
time73 days 13 hrs

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+3¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Israel formally recognized Somaliland in December 2025, breaking the precedent of non-recognition by...
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Rule Risk
The risk lies in the potentially blurry line in diplomatic rhetoric between 'formal recognition' and 'establishing informal diplomatic ties or offices.' Additionally, the rules strictly require a 'UN member state,' meaning recognition by non-UN entities (e.g., Taiwan) would not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
Exotics
This is a relatively niche geopolitical topic. While the general public rarely follows Somaliland's independence status daily, betting on international recognition of sovereignty (like Taiwan, Palestine, Kosovo) is a standard geopolitical category in prediction markets, making it not overly bizarre.
AI Analysis
Earnings|$2,387 Vol|
time6 days 10 hrs

Will Coursera (COUR) beat quarterly earnings?

Top Undervalued
+7¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price for 'Yes' has reached 67c, reflecting increased market confidence in Course...
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Hedging
COUR
This event directly predicts the earnings performance of Coursera (COUR). If the non-GAAP EPS beats expectations, it usually leads to a significant surge in its stock price; conversely, a miss could cause a drop. Therefore, the impact score on the individual stock COUR is high (Score 4). The impact on broader market indices is negligible.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' surged from 49c to 77c due to strong bullish expectations ahead of Coursera's upcoming earnings release, before consolidating back to around 67c on April 17.
AI Analysis
Culture|$2,382 Vol|
time73 days 13 hrs

Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
On April 7, 2026, the UK Home Office officially denied Kanye West's Electronic Travel Authorisation ...
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Exotics
Predicting a specific celebrity's private or public international travel itinerary within a certain timeframe falls under pop culture forecasting. While not as mainstream as macroeconomic or political events, it is somewhat common in celebrity gossip markets and carries a moderate level of novelty and entertainment value.
Movers
April 4, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted as the UK government officially denied Kanye West's visa application and banned him from entering the country [4, 6, 8]. This led to the outright cancellation of the Wireless Festival he was supposed to headline, destroying any expectations of a UK visit before late June [4, 6, 8].
AI Analysis
Weather|$2,347 Vol|
time2 days 1 hrs

Highest temperature in Karachi on April 19?

Top Undervalued
+13.5¢
31°C(Yes)
+13.2¢
30°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Karachi (Masroor Airbase) on April...
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Exotics
Forecasting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche topic in prediction markets. While weather forecasting is part of daily life, betting on an exact whole-degree temperature for a specific day carries some novelty compared to common elections or major economic indicators.
Movers
April 17, 2026 (06:38 - 07:43) - The price of the 29°C option plummeted from 16.5c to 1.95c. This significant drop is attributed to updated meteorological models becoming more confident that the peak temperature will exceed 29°C as the target date approaches, diminishing investor confidence in lower temperature outcomes.
AI Analysis
Crypto|$2,344 Vol|
time258 days 18 hrs

Will Hylo launch a token by ___?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
June 30, 2026(Yes)
+5¢
December 31, 2026(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As time progresses, expectations for a token launch by the end of June have cooled. However, the ove...
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Exotics
Hylo is a relatively niche crypto project (likely a newer protocol on Solana or similar), virtually unknown outside of specific crypto enthusiast circles. This is a classic niche market question with low general awareness.
AI Analysis
Elections|$2,331 Vol|
time199 days 13 hrs

KY-02 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
KY-02 is a 'Solid Republican' district (Cook PVI approx. R+21) where Republicans consistently win by...
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AI Analysis

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