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Finance|$820 Vol|

Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to Uber's recent earnings, total trips were 3.0 billion in Q1 2025 and 3.8 billion in Q4 2...

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Uber's total number of trips is a key operational metric measuring the growth of its rideshare and delivery businesses. The outcome will directly impact Uber's stock price upon earnings release and may have a minor spillover effect on key competitors like Lyft.

The market is exhibiting a significant irrational premium for extremely high trip thresholds (e.g., 4.4B, 4.6B). Given Uber's all-time high of 3.8 billion trips in Q4 2025 and typical Q1 seasonality, reaching 4.0 billion or more in Q1 2026 would require unprecedented growth, which strongly diverges from fundamental analysis and Wall Street consensus.

Verify how Uber officially reports the 'total number of trips' metric in their recent earnings materials, and check if there are any rule risks regarding metric definition changes or omission in the Q1 2026 report.

Sports|$819 Vol|

138 days 19 hrs

LaLiga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League

Top Undervalued

Rayo Vallecano(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The traditional big three (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid) are highly likely to finish in t...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The current market prices show obvious logical flaws. Top-tier teams like Real Madrid have the same 'Yes' price (50c) as relegation-battling teams (e.g., Elche). This drastically diverges from the consensus of mainstream sports media and pundits regarding La Liga's power dynamics. This divergence is purely the result of inefficient pricing in an early or highly illiquid prediction market.

Explain in simple terms: What exact conditions must a LaLiga team meet to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?

Elections|$817 Vol|

201 days 19 hrs

OR-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Oregon's 1st congressional district (OR-01) is a solid Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of D+18...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a significant liquidity trap in the rules: although this is a market for a single district (OR-01), the determination of the candidate's party affiliation is pegged to when 'all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called'. This means that even if OR-01 is decided decisively on election night, payouts will be locked until the very last contested seat in the nation (potentially involving weeks of recounts) is settled.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to retrieve real-time data for the 'OR-01 House Election'. Given the extremely low volume ($267.2), analyze the bid-ask spread and slippage risk. Concurrently, retrieve the latest Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Oregon's 1st District and the incumbent's status to determine if the fair value for 'Democratic Party' should be near 100%.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to retrieve real-time data for the 'OR-01 House Election'. Given the extremely low volume ($267.2), analyze the bid-ask spread and slippage risk. Concurrently, retrieve the latest Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Oregon's 1st District and the incumbent's status to determine if the fair value for 'Democratic Party' should be near 100%.

Sports|$800 Vol|

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals MVP

Top Undervalued

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander(No)

Victor Wembanyama(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The favorites for the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP are concentrated among the core players of ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Due to extremely low liquidity, the prediction market prices almost all options at roughly 50 cents (50% implied probability), resulting in an absurd combined implied probability of over 800%. This completely diverges from mainstream sports media and sportsbook odds, which adhere to a ~100% total probability.

What are the current injuries, starting lineup changes, or team standings that could most impact the chances of key players like Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?

Crypto|$796 Vol|

Solana above ___ on April 21?

Top Undervalued

Elections|$767 Vol|

202 days 19 hrs

NY-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the incumbent, Tom Suozzi possesses strong fundraising capabilities and name recognition. NY-03 l...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the Polymarket page for 'NY-03 House Election Winner'. Given the extremely low volume (~$176), focus on analyzing the liquidity risk from the bid-ask spread. Update the assessment of fair value by combining incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi's recent approval with the macro trends for the 2026 midterm elections.

Culture|$759 Vol|

259 days 19 hrs

Will Dua Lipa and Callum Turner get married by December 31?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent reports (April 2026) indicate that Dua Lipa and Callum Turner are actively planning an intima...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a typical celebrity gossip prediction market. While not as absurd as 'alien invasion', predicting the marital status of a specific celebrity couple is a niche, entertainment-focused market, distinct from mainstream macro predictions, catering to a specific audience.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest updates on Dua Lipa and Callum Turner's relationship, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions for this low-volume event (~$658), and assess whether current odds accurately reflect their relationship status or if there are risks of arbitrage/manipulation due to low liquidity.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest updates on Dua Lipa and Callum Turner's relationship, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions for this low-volume event (~$658), and assess whether current odds accurately reflect their relationship status or if there are risks of arbitrage/manipulation due to low liquidity.

Culture|$754 Vol|

259 days 19 hrs

Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current market price (28c) indicates low expectations for an official separation announcement th...

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This is a typical celebrity gossip market. While not part of serious political or macroeconomic forecasting, betting on the private lives and marital status of high-profile public figures (like Ye) is a very common niche within prediction markets.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream entertainment media and insider reports continuously paint the marriage as being on the verge of collapse (e.g., rumors of 'parting ways' and Bianca seeking her voice), while the prediction market's low 28% probability seemingly ignores these red flags. Market traders may be overly penalizing the 'boy who cried wolf' effect from past Kanye drama, resulting in an underpricing of a legitimate marital crisis.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: With an extremely low volume (~$76), visit the Polymarket page to check if there is any effective liquidity in the order book. Is the bid/ask spread too wide to trade? Do recent user comments mention any new relationship dynamics?

Politics|$752 Vol|

201 days 19 hrs

DE-AL House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Delaware's At-Large district is an absolute stronghold for the Democratic Party, which has controlle...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the DE-AL event. Given the extremely low volume (~$163), critically analyze the bid-ask spread and depth in the order book. Combine this with Delaware's historical status as a 'Safe Blue' state to assess if current odds are mispriced due to illiquidity and if there is significant slippage risk for entry.

[Politics] Authoritative Ratings & Candidate Check: Search for the latest ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections for the Delaware At-Large (DE-AL) district (e.g., is it rated 'Solid Democrat'?). Also, verify the declared candidates from both parties, considering the likely open seat due to Lisa Blunt Rochester's Senate run, to determine if any strong challengers exist who could alter the fundamental outlook.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the DE-AL event. Given the extremely low volume (~$163), critically analyze the bid-ask spread and depth in the order book. Combine this with Delaware's historical status as a 'Safe Blue' state to assess if current odds are mispriced due to illiquidity and if there is significant slippage risk for entry.

Crypto|$741 Vol|

XRP above ___ on April 21?

Top Undervalued

Sports|$741 Vol|

Will the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL draft be traded?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With only 10 days remaining until the 2026 NFL Draft, the likelihood of the 1st overall pick being t...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the 'Will the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL draft be traded?' event on Polymarket, specifically analyzing the order book depth and bid-ask spread given the extremely low volume ($43), to evaluate the liquidity risk and capital lock-up opportunity cost leading up to the April draft.

Politics|$734 Vol|

259 days 19 hrs

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Doug Ford won a third consecutive majority government in the February 2025 snap election and has sta...

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What are the latest news, controversies, or polling data driving speculation about Doug Ford stepping down as the Ontario PC Party leader?

Elections|$731 Vol|

201 days 19 hrs

AZ-08 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

AZ-08 is a traditional 'Safe Republican' congressional district, home to large conservative retireme...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital Calculation: Considering the election resolves in November 2026, calculate the 'opportunity cost' of locking capital in this low-liquidity market. Compare the potential ROI of the bet against the risk-free yield from DeFi protocols or Treasury bills (assuming ~4-5% APY) over the remaining duration, to decide if the returns justify the extended lock-up period and lack of exit liquidity.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'AZ-08 House Election Winner'. Given the extremely low volume (~$693), analyze the bid-ask spread to assess liquidity and slippage risks. Concurrently, reference the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Arizona's 8th District and the incumbent's status to determine if current odds accurately reflect the fundamental reality of this historically Republican stronghold.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency & District Profile Mining: Search for the specific election results and margins of victory in Arizona's 8th District (AZ-08) for the 2022 and 2024 cycles. Verify if the district has undergone any recent redistricting or demographic shifts favoring Democrats to determine if this event is a predictable 'safe seat' play or if there are hidden 'black swan' factors for an upset.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital Calculation: Considering the election resolves in November 2026, calculate the 'opportunity cost' of locking capital in this low-liquidity market. Compare the potential ROI of the bet against the risk-free yield from DeFi protocols or Treasury bills (assuming ~4-5% APY) over the remaining duration, to decide if the returns justify the extended lock-up period and lack of exit liquidity.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'AZ-08 House Election Winner'. Given the extremely low volume (~$693), analyze the bid-ask spread to assess liquidity and slippage risks. Concurrently, reference the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Arizona's 8th District and the incumbent's status to determine if current odds accurately reflect the fundamental reality of this historically Republican stronghold.

Finance|$726 Vol|

Boeing airplane deliveries above __ in Q1?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

On April 14, 2026, Boeing released its Q1 delivery press release, reporting 143 commercial airplane ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Boeing's (BA) commercial airplane deliveries are the most critical metric determining its quarterly revenue, free cash flow, and market confidence. An unexpected significant deviation from estimates will directly trigger substantial volatility in Boeing's stock, acting as a highly tradable earnings catalyst. However, the spillover effect on broad indices like the S&P 500 is negligible.

Market prices significantly diverge from objective facts. Boeing officially reported 143 commercial aircraft deliveries for Q1 today [1], yet the market prices for 'Yes' on lower thresholds like 130, 135, and 140 remain hovering between 50c and 60c. This indicates the market has not yet reacted to the latest official release.

When is Boeing scheduled to release its Q1 2026 earnings report, and is there a risk of capital lock-up if the release is delayed beyond the June 30 deadline?

Sports|$719 Vol|

Japan B League: Winner

Top Undervalued

Saga Ballooners(No)

Nagasaki Velca(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the current standings and team strengths in the Japan B League, Chiba Jets, Alvark Tokyo, U...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The prediction market prices are extremely flat (most teams have 'yes' prices between 48.5c and 49.5c), which contradicts the massive disparity in team strengths in the real world. In reality, top teams like Chiba Jets or Alvark Tokyo have a much higher chance of winning compared to weaker teams. This divergence is driven by a lack of liquidity and trading activity in the market.

Explain the resolution criteria for this Japan B League winner market in the simplest terms, especially what happens if multiple teams are declared winners or if the event is postponed past June 7, 2026?

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