Background
Sports|$72 Vol|
time46 days 8 hrs

Germany BBL: Winner

Top Undervalued
+49¢
Syntainics MBC (Weißenfels)(No)
+49¢
Skyliners Frankfurt(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the current strength and historical performance of the German Basketball Bundesliga (BBL), ...
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Rule Risk
The rules are mostly clear but contain a significant trap: a hard deadline of May 31, 2026. If the Germany BBL playoffs and finals extend into June due to scheduling, the market resolves to 'Other,' which defies standard sports betting intuition. The alphabetical tie-breaker for multiple champions is also a specific caveat to watch.
Divergence
The current market assigns approximately a 50% implied probability (yes price of 0.5) to multiple weak teams and even almost impossible contenders (e.g., Vet-Concept Gladiators Trier, Skyliners Frankfurt). This is in extreme divergence with mainstream sports analysis and actual league strengths, clearly resulting from extremely poor liquidity and abnormal market maker order settings.
AI Analysis
Sports|$69 Vol|
time138 days 4 hrs

PGA TOUR Championship: Winner

Top Undervalued
+46¢
Ryan Gerard(No)
+44.5¢
J.J. Spaun(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market is highly distorted due to low liquidity or manipulation, with fringe players' Ye...
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Divergence
There is a massive divergence between market prices and mainstream golf consensus. Players like Sam Burns and Ryan Gerard have implied win probabilities over 45%, while world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is priced lower. This defies sports logic and standard sportsbook odds, a common anomaly in prediction markets with low liquidity.
AI Analysis
Geopolitics|$67 Vol|
time46 days 4 hrs

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

Top Undervalued
+13¢
May 31(No)
+8.5¢
April 30(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest ISW reports from mid-April 2026, Russian forces attempting to advance west o...
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Exotics
While the Russia-Ukraine war is a mainstream topic, betting on the capture of a specific intersection in a tiny village is highly niche. It appeals mostly to OSINT analysts and war-mapping enthusiasts rather than the general public.
AI Analysis
Politics|$64 Vol|
time203 days 4 hrs

WA-08 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+11¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+4¢
Republican Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite the discrepancy between the market title (WA-08) and the rules (WA-03), the Democratic Party...
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Rule Risk
Critical rule risk exists. The title specifies 'WA-08' (Washington's 8th District), but the rule text explicitly states the market will resolve based on the winner of the 'WA-03' congressional district seat. These are entirely different districts (WA-08 is held by Rep. Schrier, WA-03 by Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez, with different competitive dynamics). This fundamental contradiction between title and text makes the market highly misleading for traders who do not read the fine print.
AI Analysis
Sports|$62 Vol|
time46 days 4 hrs

VCT 2026: China League Stage 1 Winner

Top Undervalued
+42¢
FunPlus Phoenix(No)
+41¢
Titan Esports Club(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the current group stage standings of VCT 2026 China Stage 1, EDward Gaming (EDG) is undefea...
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Divergence
There is a massive divergence between market prices and reality. The prediction market implies nearly a 50% chance of winning for several teams, pushing the total implied probability to around 440%, which is mathematically impossible for a single-winner event. In reality, mainstream esports coverage and current Liquipedia standings show EDG as the undisputed frontrunner.
AI Analysis
Politics|$61 Vol|
time203 days 4 hrs

MN-02 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+3¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
2026 is a midterm election year under a Republican presidency, and the historical 'midterm penalty' ...
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Divergence
The current market price (Democratic Party 61c) is significantly lower than mainstream political models' expectations for this district (typically >80%). This divergence stems entirely from severe slippage in an illiquid prediction market, rather than a shift in fundamental electoral consensus. Experts widely agree that an open, Democratic-leaning seat is highly likely to remain in Democratic hands, especially given the historical midterm headwinds for the incumbent party.
AI Analysis
Sports|$60 Vol|
time18 days 21 hrs

2026 PPA: Sacramento Open (Women's Doubles) Winner

Top Undervalued
+49¢
Jessie Irvine / Judit Castillo(No)
+49¢
Genie Erokhina / Lauren Stratman(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is currently in an illiquid, freshly launched state where all options are incorrectly pri...
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Divergence
There is a severe mathematical and logical divergence between market pricing and reality. The market assigns a 50% implied probability to all 28 teams, creating an absurd total implied probability of ~1400%. In reality, top teams like Catherine Parenteau/Meghan Dizon have a much higher actual chance to win, while fringe teams have near 0% probability.
AI Analysis
Politics|$56 Vol|
time203 days 4 hrs

NY-04 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+2¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NY-04 is a slightly blue-leaning swing district where Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds the in...
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AI Analysis
Crypto|$54 Vol|
time626 days 9 hrs

Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
$300M(Yes)
+0.5¢
$500M(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Given the low liquidity, prices across all options have experienced significant recent volatility. W...
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Movers
2026-04-13 - 2026-04-14, the price of the $50M option plummeted from 76.5c to 43.5c, and the $100M option fell from 55c to 37c, likely due to cooling market expectations or large sell orders in a low-liquidity environment causing a sharp correction. No significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed for other options over the past 3 days.
AI Analysis
Elections|$50 Vol|
time202 days 4 hrs

NM-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NM-03 represents a solid Democratic stronghold (Cook PVI D+3/D+4). Incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger F...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$50 Vol|
time202 days 4 hrs

TX-20 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
TX-20 is a deep-blue district (Cook PVI D+15). Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro overwhelmingly won ...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$50 Vol|
time202 days 4 hrs

MO-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
MO-03 is a solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+13. Incumbent Bob Onder (R) won comfortabl...
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AI Analysis

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