The rules clearly define FDV calculation (Total Supply * Price) and timing (4 PM ET the day after launch). The main risk lies in the definition of 'Launch': 'actively, publicly transferable and tradable.' Ambiguity may arise regarding whether pre-market futures count or only formal DEX/CEX listings. Additionally, if no token is launched by the deadline (end of 2026), the market resolves to 'No', introducing significant time uncertainty risk.

This is a classic novelty market. While a meeting between US and Chinese leaders is a major event, very few people naturally contemplate or predict the specific duration of their handshake in seconds. Focusing on such minute body language details falls into the category of political entertainment, making it highly exotic.

Moderate risk. While 'military offensive intended to establish control' is specific, scenarios like naval blockades, cyber warfare, or seizing minor outposts could trigger heavy debate over 'intent' and the definition of 'offensive'. Relying on media consensus for resolution also introduces subjectivity.

A Taiwan conflict would catastrophically disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain, causing extreme structural shocks to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) facing a severe crash. Simultaneously, extreme war panic would trigger massive safe-haven flows, driving Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) significantly higher.

If Republicans not only hold the House but also win a 60-seat 'filibuster-proof' supermajority in the Senate during midterms, it would be a massive political black swan (incumbent parties usually lose seats). This 'Trifecta + Supermajority' scenario would grant the GOP unchecked power on taxes, deregulation, and legislation without bipartisan compromise. This would likely spike inflation expectations and Treasury yields (US 10Y Yield), while significantly boosting policy-sensitive small caps (Russell 2000) and domestic industries.

There is a notable divergence between the market's implied probability (88.5% for Democrats) and mainstream political consensus, which rates CA-28 as a 'Solid Democrat' seat with a >99% win probability. This divergence does not reflect actual electoral risk; rather, it is a liquidity and time-value discount. Traders are unwilling to lock up capital for over 200 days just to squeeze out the final 10% profit margin.

This question sits between regular news and novelty. While Greta Thunberg being detained for protests is not uncommon (it has happened multiple times), it is not a mainstream prediction topic like elections or economic data, carrying a degree of entertainment and specific-personality tracking.

There is a massive divergence. Mainstream media (such as AFP) have explicitly reported that Greta Thunberg was arrested in London on April 11 [8]. However, the current prediction market price for 'Yes' is only 66.5c, implying a 66.5% probability of the event occurring or being confirmed, which drastically misaligns with the established facts reported in the news.

This is a relatively niche financial derivative metric. While crypto traders monitor liquidation data, the general public rarely contemplates whether 'annual peak liquidation will break records'. It is geekier than simple price predictions, placing it in the medium novelty range.

This market is directly correlated with extreme volatility in the crypto market. A 'Yes' outcome (record-breaking liquidations) typically implies a 'black swan' crash or a violent short squeeze, causing significant movement (usually a crash) in Bitcoin (BTC) prices. Coinbase (COIN), as an exchange, sees its stock fluctuate with crypto sentiment and volume; massive liquidations often accompany high volume but also panic. This makes the market an effective tool for hedging against extreme downside risk in crypto assets.

The market currently prices the 'Yes' option at 18.5%, implying a nearly 1-in-5 chance of breaking the $19.16 billion liquidation record. However, mainstream crypto market analysis and industry consensus suggest that as the market matures, institutional participation grows, and exchanges tighten leverage limits, the likelihood of such an extreme single-day liquidation event is exceptionally low. The current high pricing likely reflects prediction market participants' overestimation of extreme tail risks or a preference for speculation, presenting a significant divergence from the broader market consensus.

While Thailand and Cambodia have historical territorial disputes (e.g., Preah Vihear Temple) and occasional border friction, a formal air strike or missile attack (as opposed to border shelling) by 2026 is not a mainstream prediction topic. It represents a regional geopolitical tail risk rather than a globally monitored conflict like Taiwan or Ukraine.

Significant naming ambiguity exists: 'Aster' is likely a typo for the cryptocurrency 'Astar (ASTR)', creating dispute risk if resolved strictly by literal name. Furthermore, the absence of a specified data source (oracle) and a precise definition of 'hit' (e.g., do momentary wicks count?) constitutes a standard resolution trap.

April 17, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 20°C option surged from 21.5c to 39.5c, and the 21°C option fluctuated between 24c and 33c, as weather forecasts became highly certain that the maximum temperature would likely be between 20°C and 21°C just before settlement. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 22°C option dropped from 22.5c to 11.5c before rebounding back to 22.5c, while the 19°C option fell from 25.5c to 13.5c. This volatility was caused by fine-tuning in weather forecast models as the resolution date approached, leading to shifting market expectations among adjacent temperature ranges. Before April 15, 2026, there is no record of price movements exceeding 10 cents recently.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, Cory Sandhagen's price surged from 10.5c to 47c, likely due to a victory in a key contender match or official confirmation of a 2026 title shot. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Charles Oliveira's price jumped from 10.5c to 47.5c, Max Holloway's from 10.5c to 48.5c, and Dricus Du Plessis's from 16c to 47.5c. This collective spike heavily suggests the finalization of major title fights or #1 contender bouts for these fighters. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Ian Machado Garry surged from 22c to 55.5c, Ciryl Gane from 33.5c to 54.5c, and Alexander Volkov from 10c to 47c, primarily driven by clarifications in the contender hierarchy of their respective divisions.

There is a severe logical divergence in the market's aggregate probability. Over 10 fighters are priced at a >45% chance of becoming champion in 2026, which is statistically unrealistic given the limited number of UFC weight classes and annual title fights. Fan bias and speculative betting are heavily inflating the odds for popular veterans like Kamaru Usman beyond their actual competitive trajectory.

Moderate risk. The rules feature strict calculation logics for vote margins and specify edge cases (e.g., falling exactly on a boundary resolves to the higher bracket, and unlisted parties winning resolves to 'Other'). If the political party or coalition denoted by 'PB' dissolves or restructures before the election, it could lead to ambiguity and resolution disputes.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 'PB 20%+' surged from 9.65c to 31.6c, while 'PB 15-20%' surged from 20c to 44.5c before retreating to 31.5c. The reason is a drastic shift in late polls or market sentiment close to election day, massively increasing bets on a landslide victory (over 15% or even 20% margin). April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 'PB 10-15%' dropped significantly from its peak of 60.5c to 32c, while 'PB 5-10%' rebounded from 11.5c to over 30c, as the latest market expectations suggest a tightening race, shifting the expected margin downward. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of 'PB 10-15%' surged from 44c to 58c, as market consensus further validated the 10-15% winning margin, while 'PB 15-20%' retreated from 28c to 17c. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'PB 5-10%' plummeted from 45.5c to 10.5c, while 'PB 15-20%' surged from 7.5c to 28c, and 'PB 10-15%' climbed from 31c to 45.5c, as the market's expected margin of victory shifted significantly upward from the smaller 5-10% bracket to the 10-20% range. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'PB 10-15%' strongly rebounded from 15c to 34.5c, while 'PB <5%' dropped from 25.45c back to 6.15c, as the market corrected the initial panic of a severely tightened race back toward fundamental polling averages (10-15% margin). April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of 'PB <5%' surged from 3c to 25c, and 'PB 10-15%' plunged from 34c to 15c, as some investors shifted their bets towards a tighter race. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of 'PB 20%+' plummeted from 20c to 6c, as new polls indicated that while PB maintains a solid lead, a margin exceeding 20% is highly unlikely.