April 6, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of '4th or lower' surged from 20.5c to 31c, driven by market participants beginning to realize the mean-reverting trend in meteorological data and correcting previous irrational overvaluations of extreme heat.

Market prices imply a highly inflated combined probability (over 70%) for '3rd hottest' and '2nd hottest', whereas meteorological consensus and historical data trends overwhelmingly point to '4th or lower' given the lack of a strong El Niño driver. This reflects a classic divergence between market sentiment and scientific fundamentals.

This is a prediction about the high temperature in a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, setting up a specific short-term prediction market for an exact degree in Warsaw is a relatively niche and specific market.

April 13, 2026 09:08 - April 13, 2026 11:18, the price of '14°C' plummeted from 24c to 4.5c, while '15°C or higher' surged from 67c to 86.5c. This was due to updated weather models confirming a warmer trend, pushing the expected high temperature firmly into the 15°C and above range.

The rules mention using the 'Forecast' from Wunderground but provide a link to the 'History' page, which could cause literal ambiguity regarding the resolution criteria. Additionally, occasional missing data on the weather platform or the integer rounding rules when converting from Fahrenheit to Celsius might lead to edge-case disputes.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 19°C surged from 8c to 19.45c (peaking at 29.7c during the period), the price of 20°C surged from 21.5c to 43c, while the price of 22°C plummeted from 22c to 6.9c. The reason is that as the target date approaches, weather forecasts updated, lowering the expected high temperature from the 21-22°C range to the 19-20°C range. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '24°C or higher' plummeted from 45c to 7.5c. The reason is that as the target date approaches, the latest weather forecasts clearly indicate a high of around 21-22°C, largely ruling out the possibility of an extreme high of 24°C or above.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 78-79°F plummeted from 32.5c to 14c, as approaching weather forecasts indicated highs would exceed this range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 84-85°F plummeted from 25.5c to 4.5c, as weather forecasts ruled out extreme high temperatures. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 86-87°F plummeted from 25.5c to 0.6c, as forecasts further confirmed temperatures would not reach this level.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, the price of the 86-87°F option surged from ~29c to 42.5c, and the 84-85°F option rose from ~18.5c to over 34c. Concurrently, the 82-83°F option plummeted from 26.5c to 12.5c. This significant shift was driven by updated weather forecasts, which revised the expected high temperature upwards from 82°F to the 85-87°F range.

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a future date is a relatively niche prediction market topic. While weather forecasts are common, trading on such mundane daily data has a certain novelty to it.

2026-04-12 to 2026-04-13, the price of 32°C surged from 11c to 41c before falling back to 17c, and 33°C surged from 7.5c to 28.5c before dropping. This is due to short-term fluctuations in rain probability and high temperature forecasts in the final two days, before the forecast stabilized around 31°C. 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-12, the price of 27°C plummeted from 25.5c to 8c, 28°C dropped from 26.5c to 7c, 29°C dropped from 26.5c to 5.5c, and 31°C surged from 29c to 41c. This is because updated weather forecasting models ruled out abnormally low temperatures as the date approached, driving funds to concentrate on the most likely outcome of 31°C.

While daily weather is widely monitored, betting on the exact integer high temperature for a specific city on a specific date falls outside standard daily concerns. It carries some novelty but remains a standard, albeit niche, category within prediction markets.

Between April 12, 2026, and April 13, 2026, the price of 18°C plummeted from 27.5c to 3.5c, and 19°C crashed from 18c to less than 1c. Simultaneously, lower temperature options like 12°C and 14°C also experienced significant drops (e.g., 14°C fell from 25c to roughly 10c). This is because, as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models have ruled out extreme temperature scenarios, narrowly locking the expected high temperature into the 15°C-17°C range.

From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 17°C option plummeted from 22.5c to 0.8c, as updated forecasts closer to the date ruled out significant cooling. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 18°C option dropped from 23.0c to 1.2c, similarly due to increased forecast certainty eliminating cooler extremes. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 19°C option fell from 26.5c to 6.5c, as the forecast center shifted towards the higher 20°C or 21°C. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 20°C option climbed from 28.0c to 41.0c, as forecasts further confirmed this temperature range as the most likely. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 22°C option dropped from 25.0c to 12.5c, as forecasts ruled out abnormally warm anomalies.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' plummeted from 25c to 4c before recovering to 8.9c, as weather models adjusted the expected temperatures upward during the rain event, pricing out extreme cold. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '46-47°F' dropped from 34c to 19.5c before rebounding to 31c, reflecting market indecision and minor model adjustments regarding the exact magnitude of the frontal cooling.

There is a noticeable divergence. Mainstream forecasts (like NWS and KING 5) project a high around 50-51°F, yet the market assigns the highest probability (~68%) to the colder 46-49°F range. This suggests the market might be relying on more aggressive cold-front models (like specific high-res local models) or anticipating that continuous rain will suppress the actual daytime high more than generic forecasts suggest.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, multiple options experienced drastic fluctuations. The price of 31°C plummeted from 47c to 13.5c, 32°C dropped from 48c to 26.5c, and 35°C crashed from 25.5c to 4c. This was triggered by the meteorological agency issuing a heavy rain warning for Jakarta for the upcoming days, causing market uncertainty and leading traders to rapidly reprice and exit early positions.

There is a notable divergence. Current weather forecasts explicitly predict heavy rain on April 14, highly likely capping the maximum temperature at 31°C or 32°C. However, the prediction market still prices 33°C and 34°C relatively high (24.5c and 20c, respectively), indicating that some traders are underestimating the cooling effect of the rain or reacting to delayed information.

Betting on the exact high temperature in a specific city on a single day is a relatively niche and novel prediction market. While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, the general public rarely gambles on such highly specific daily weather metrics.

On April 12, 2026, the price of the '76-77°F' option crashed from 27.5c to 8.5c, while the '82°F or higher' option surged from 40c to 58c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts that significantly raised the expected high temperature for Dallas on April 14, eliminating the likelihood of lower temperature ranges.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 22°C option plummeted from 23c to around 2c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the date ruled out this lower temperature. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 25°C option dropped from 41.5c to 21c, then fluctuated between 22c and 32c, reflecting shifts in meteorological models centering around 25°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the '29°C or higher' option crashed from 22c to 1.7c, as the possibility of extreme heat was completely eliminated by the latest short-term weather forecasts.

Between April 13 and April 14, 2026, the price of the 18°C option climbed from around 25.5c to a peak of 41c, while the 16°C option plummeted from 30.5c to 14.5c, and the 15°C option dropped from 18.5c to roughly 1c. This is due to weather forecast models filtering out abnormal cooling noise as the target date approaches, confirming a relatively warmer trend.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche daily weather forecast market. While not absurd, it is less mainstream compared to standard political or economic topics, giving it a moderate novelty factor.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '20°C or higher' option fluctuated drastically between 33c and 56c. This was due to divergence in weather models regarding cloud cover and precipitation probability as the resolution date approached, causing market debate over whether temperatures would break 20°C. April 13, 2026, the price of the '18°C' option surged from 12c to 24.5c. This was due to updated short-term weather forecasting models indicating that cloud cover or light precipitation might suppress the maximum temperature to around 18°C.

The rules explicitly designate the Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) station as the resolution source, rather than a generic downtown or metropolitan LA weather forecast. Because the airport is coastal, its temperatures are typically significantly lower than inland areas. Traders face a substantial risk of misjudgment if they rely on general 'Los Angeles weather' without noting the specific measurement station.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '70-71°F' surged from 12.5c to 32c as nearer-term forecasts trended warmer, leading traders to bid up higher temperature ranges. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '64-65°F' plummeted from 26.5c to 2.05c, as updated weather models effectively ruled out such a low maximum temperature for the day.

There is a notable divergence. The specific National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for the KLAX station projects a high near 65°F for April 14, whereas the prediction market strongly favors the 68-71°F range (over 60% implied probability). This often happens when traders reference general 'Los Angeles' weather forecasts, which are typically warmer, rather than the specific coastal KLAX station, which is cooled by the marine layer.