There is a significant deviation between the title and the strict definitions in the rules. While the title implies general 'military action', the rules explicitly exclude the most common forms of aggression in the region: 1) Proxy attacks (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah) do not count; 2) Intercepted missiles/drones do not count (must have ground impact); 3) Strikes not confirmed to originate from Iran or claimed by Iran do not count. Bettors risk misinterpreting proxy or intercepted attacks as qualifying events.

A 'Yes' resolution (direct Iranian strike on Gulf soil) would signify a major escalation of war, directly threatening a global energy supply hub. Crude Oil prices would face an extreme structural shock (Score 5) due to supply fears. Gold would rise significantly as a safe haven. Equities typically sell off in risk-aversion from such geopolitical shocks. This is a high-macro-correlation 'Black Swan' type event.

April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of April 9 plummeted from 78.5c to 8.5c, and April 10 collapsed from 80.5c to 6c. The reason is that as the dates approached and passed, the market confirmed the absence of qualifying unintercepted ground strikes, shattering earlier expectations of continuous daily saturation attacks (likely due to tactical pauses or improved interception rates). April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of April 10 surged from 52.5c to 76c, April 8 from 67c to 83.5c, and April 5 climbed from 82c to 98c. The reason is that the market had confirmed through combat outcomes that Iran's high-density strikes inevitably resulted in unintercepted projectiles landing on territory, making the 'Yes' resolution threshold much easier to hit than initially anticipated. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, prices for all options hovered around 50c, as the market remained balanced at 50/50 amidst the tug-of-war between ongoing conflict and ceasefire rumors.

This is a prediction about the political fate of a high-ranking Chinese military official. While a standard topic for China elite politics watchers, for the general market it falls under niche, high-risk political speculation, being neither a mainstream election nor economic data.

As the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia holds an extremely high status. If he were sentenced, it would signify severe turmoil or a purge within China's top leadership. Such high-level political uncertainty would directly hit investor confidence in Chinese markets, causing volatility in the offshore Yuan (CNY) and significantly impacting the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and large-cap China ETFs (e.g., FXI). Such a 'black swan' event would be interpreted as a spike in political risk premium.

April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Option_'Yes' surged from 10.5c to 23c and then quickly plummeted back to 11.5c. This was caused by sudden negative rumors regarding Zhang Youxia triggering speculative buying, but as the rumors lacked official backing or were debunked, short-term capital quickly took profits or cut losses. March 30, 2026 - April 5, 2026, Option_'Yes' traded in a very narrow range between 10.5c and 13c. The reason is the prolonged lack of official news, resulting in continuous natural decay of time value and extremely flat trading sentiment. March 24, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Option_'Yes' gradually drifted down from 18c to 12.5c. The reason is the continuous decay of time value due to the lack of any official progress as time passes. March 17, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Option_'Yes' traded in a very narrow range between 17.5c and 18.5c. The reason is the market entering an information vacuum, with both bulls and bears waiting for further moves from state media, leading to shrinking volume. March 10, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Option_'Yes' slowly drifted down from 22c to 18c. The reason was the lack of anticipated major announcements following the conclusion of the 'Two Sessions,' causing speculative capital to exit. March 6, 2026 - March 8, 2026, Option_'Yes' drifted down from 27c to 23c. As the 'Two Sessions' reached their midpoint without immediate judicial breakthroughs, market hype cooled. February 28, 2026 - March 1, 2026, Option_'Yes' surged from 18.5c to 30.5c. This was driven by pre-'Two Sessions' speculation regarding explosive leaked details of the Zhang case (such as reported nuclear secrets allegations), triggering a repricing.

April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Yang Seung-jo's price dropped from 81.5c to 63.5c, while Park Soo-hyun's price rebounded from 15.05c to 32.5c. The reason is that the DPK primary race remains highly competitive; Park likely performed well in final debates or local canvassing, narrowing the gap with the frontrunner. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Yang Seung-jo's price continued to climb from 70c to 81.5c, while Park Soo-hyun dropped from 26.15c to 15.05c. The reason is that as the primary nears its end, Yang has further consolidated his lead, causing the market to price in his DPK nomination. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Yang Seung-jo's price surged from 42.5c to 81.5c, while Park Soo-hyun's price plummeted from 53.9c to 15.05c. The reason is the DPK primary situation becoming clearer, with Yang likely taking a decisive lead in key polls, prompting a rapid concentration of market capital. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, Park Soo-hyun's price surged from 16.75c to 53.9c, while Yang Seung-jo's price plummeted from 74.5c to 42.5c. The reason is a major reversal in the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) primary dynamics; Park likely secured key endorsements or took the lead in recent internal polls, prompting a rapid shift in market capital. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Park Soo-hyun's price plummeted from 53.9c back to 26.15c, while Yang Seung-jo's price rebounded from 42.5c to 70c. The reason is another reversal in the DPK primary race, possibly due to an effective counterattack by Yang's camp or new polls showing Yang re-establishing a clear lead. March 21, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Park Soo-hyun's price rebounded from 9.95c to 17.8c. The reason is Moon Jin-seok's withdrawal on the 24th, leading to a consolidation of DPK votes, with some capital betting on Park to challenge Yang in the final stretch. March 18, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Kim Tae-heum's price crashed continuously from 24c to 6.5c. The reason is an irrational run on the market during the intense DPK primary phase; traders seem to be completely ignoring the incumbent's base despite Kim being confirmed as the PPP nominee on March 17.

There is a massive divergence between market pricing and mainstream political common sense. The market implies a ~1.15% win probability for the incumbent Governor Kim Tae-heum, which starkly contradicts the reality of South Korean local elections. As an incumbent from a major conservative party in a swing province like Chungcheongnam-do, his re-election chances should naturally range between 30% and 50%. This divergence indicates severely unhealthy platform liquidity, entirely hijacked by speculative capital focused on the ongoing DPK internal primary.

China's CPI data directly reflects domestic consumer demand and the retail environment, causing a medium-level price impact on major consumer-focused Chinese stocks like Alibaba (BABA) and PDD (Score 3). Additionally, as the world's largest commodity importer, China's inflation/deflation signals affect Crude Oil prices via demand expectations (Score 2), though the impact on broad US indices is relatively limited.

April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026: The price of 2.5%+ surged from 12.65c to 26.05c. The likely cause is recent macroeconomic data or policy signals pushing inflation expectations higher, leading to significant inflows into the tail high-inflation bracket. March 6, 2026 - March 10, 2026: The price of 0.6 – 1.0% crashed from 36.5c to 19.5c. The catalyst was the Feb CPI release (1.3%) on March 9, which exceeded the bracket's upper bound, causing a sell-off. Meanwhile, 0.1 – 0.5% briefly surged to 46c on March 9.

For the general public or casual sports fans, Kevin Vallejos' specific next opponent is a niche topic, catering mostly to hardcore UFC followers. Compared to broad questions like 'Who will win the Super Bowl,' this is much more esoteric and specific.

Between April 11, 2026, and April 13, 2026, Steve Garcia's price spiked from 22.5c to 47.5c before dropping back to 27c, likely due to market overreaction to unofficial rumors or speculation followed by a correction. Between April 7, 2026, and April 9, 2026, Youssef Zalal's price dropped from 40c to 17.5c and then rebounded to 47.5c, indicating high uncertainty and speculative trading during this period.

The main risk lies in the definition of 'Token Sales'. Coinbase currently focuses on Listings rather than Launchpad-style ICOs like CoinList. If a dedicated Launchpad doesn't exist, 'token sales' could be ambiguous (e.g., Earn campaigns, institutional sales, or a new product). Additionally, data transparency is a risk, as specific raise figures for partner projects might not be fully disclosed publicly.

This is a relatively niche question. While Coinbase is a major player, 'Token Sales' are not currently its core business (unlike trading fees or custody). Predicting volume for a business line that might not yet be fully active or relies heavily on a future bull market explosion involves significant speculation.

This prediction directly correlates with Coinbase's future revenue streams. If Coinbase raises over $1B via token sales in 2026, it implies a return of retail mania and a highly favorable regulatory environment (e.g., SEC stance), which is bullish for Coinbase stock (COIN). It also serves as a proxy for general crypto market sentiment (BTC), as high raise volumes typically occur during bull markets.

2026-04-09 to 2026-04-10, the price of the >$200M option crashed from 68c to 39c due to irrational selling in a highly illiquid market, pushing the price inversion to an absurd level. 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-03, the price of the >$200M option plummeted from 59.5c to 47.5c, caused by irrational selling due to dried-up liquidity, further exacerbating the price inversion with the >$400M option. 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-27, the price of the >$200M option fluctuated and fell from 59c to 55.5c, while the >$600M option continued to decline from 27c to 20.5c. After digesting the previous abnormal volatility, the market is gradually correcting its overly optimistic expectations for high-value fundraising for the year, though the price inversion persists. 2026-03-21 to 2026-03-23, the price of the >$200M option quickly rebounded from 37c to 54c, while the >$600M option fell sharply from 43c to 32c. This was due to an oversold bounce following the initial crash, accompanied by a significant downgrade in the probability of achieving higher targets. 2026-03-20 to 2026-03-21, the price of the >$200M option crashed from 69.5c to 37c (-32.5c), and >$400M dropped from 84.2c to 52.1c. The reason was a panic-induced repricing regarding the eligibility of major Q1 raises (like MON); the expectation that the target was 'already met' collapsed, triggering a liquidity cascade and creating the current severe price inversion. 2026-03-08 to 2026-03-12, the >$400M option retraced from 69.85c to 59.3c, driven by weak Q1 trading volume data, causing a reassessment of mid-term fundraising capacity. 2026-03-01 to 2026-03-05, the market chopped violently between 53c and 79c as traders weighed 'Base ecosystem explosion' narratives against macro uncertainties.

Since the current pricing between options violates basic mathematical probability axioms (mutual exclusivity and subset logic), this is entirely due to endogenous market illiquidity and irrational retail trading, rather than representing any consensus view from institutions, mainstream media, or experts.

The midterm election results directly dictate the US legislative landscape (taxes, regulation, fiscal spending) for the next two years. While the popular vote margin does not map 1:1 to seat control, it is the strongest signal of 'political sentiment'. A landslide victory (e.g., >6%) by one party could shatter the market's preferred 'gridlock' expectation, causing a medium impact on equities (especially small caps sensitive to domestic policy) and Treasury yields.

April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, 'Democrats 2-4%' spiked from 8.1c to 22.5c then fell back to 8.8c, while 'Democrats 10-12%' crashed from 25.5c to 12.5c. This was caused by thin market depth, where whale repositioning or speculative sweeps temporarily distorted specific brackets. March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, 'Republicans 6%+' surged from 1.8c to 14c. This massive spike was decoupled from fundamentals and likely due to illiquidity or fat-finger trades. March 12, 2026 - March 14, 2026, both 'Democrats 2-4%' and 'Democrats 8-10%' experienced high volatility as traders attempted to price the expected Democratic advantage, resulting in chaotic swings amidst thin order books.

There is a notable mathematical and logical divergence. While mainstream experts uniformly predict a strong opposition (Democratic) wave typical of a second midterm, the market aggressively overprices the entire board (sum of Yes > 136%) and gives 'Republicans 0-2%' an inexplicably high 16% probability. This contradicts the consensus expectation of a solid Democratic popular vote margin and is purely driven by irrational retail bias toward 'cheap' lottery brackets.

Mexico's GDP data directly impacts the Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) exchange rate and the Mexican equity market (e.g., iShares MSCI Mexico ETF, ticker EWW). Higher-than-expected growth typically strengthens the Peso and benefits Mexican stocks. Additionally, given Mexico's status as a key US trade partner, its data might reflect North American supply chain conditions, but the impact on broad US indices would be negligible.

2026-04-03 to 2026-04-05, the '0.0-0.5%' option dropped from 31.45c to 17.15c, and '1.0-1.5%' fell from 23.5c to 11.5c. Meanwhile, '<0.0%' briefly spiked to 19.2c before retracting. This high volatility reflects market indecision and shifting expectations following the end of Q1 as traders await preliminary macro data. 2026-03-01 to 2026-03-05, the market underwent a massive repricing. The '<0.0%' option crashed from 28.5c to 9.5c, while '0.5-1.0%' doubled from 18c to 36c. This reflected a correction of recession fears towards a moderate growth pricing.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream macroeconomic forecasts. The prediction market overwhelmingly favors the '0.5-1.0%' bracket (>50% probability), whereas major institutions, including Banxico and BBVA, have recently upgraded their GDP expectations to the 1.5%-1.8% range. The market appears to have either failed to digest these institutional upgrades or is holding an excessively pessimistic bias regarding the upcoming preliminary INEGI print.

The Bank of England's rate decision directly impacts the valuation of the British Pound and liquidity expectations for UK equities. A surprise hike or cut will immediately trigger significant tradable movements in the GBP/USD exchange rate and the FTSE 100 index. Additionally, because the Pound is a key component of the US Dollar Index, DXY will also experience some spillover effects.

2026-04-07 to 2026-04-08, the price of the '25 bps increase' option surged from 33.5c to 44c, reflecting rising market expectations for a rate hike due to persistent inflation concerns or recent macroeconomic data releases. No other options have experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents over the past 3 days.

While the specific choice of letters (e.g., $MARS vs $SPACE) has no financial impact, this market effectively functions as a proxy for 'Will SpaceX IPO by 2027?'. Buying a specific ticker is a long position on the IPO occurring. If a ticker is confirmed (confirming the IPO), funds holding private SpaceX shares (like DXYZ) would see a massive NAV realization event (Score 5), and TSLA could experience volatility due to capital rotation or sentiment spillover within the Musk ecosystem (Score 3).

April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of $X significantly retraced from 48.0c to 30.5c, while 'Other' continued to rebound from 42.35c to 63.0c. This was caused by the further receding of extreme irrational retail speculation, with capital accelerating its return to the fundamental-based 'Other' option reflecting the 'no IPO' expectation. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of $X retraced from 48.0c to 35.5c, while 'Other' rebounded from 42.35c to 55.4c. This was caused by the market cooling down after days of extreme irrational speculation, with profit-taking occurring and capital flowing back into the fundamental-based 'Other' option. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of $X surged from 20.0c to 48.0c, while 'Other' plummeted from 74.4c to 42.35c. This was driven by a renewed wave of irrational speculative frenzy regarding Musk potentially accelerating SpaceX's IPO and forcing the $X ticker. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of $X surged from 9.0c to 30.0c, while 'Other' plummeted from 85.35c to 65.7c, likely driven by renewed speculative rumors regarding Elon Musk's asset restructuring or IPO plans. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of $X further plummeted from 24.0c to 9.0c before rebounding to 20.0c, while 'Other' briefly hit 85.35c before retracing to 74.4c. The market digested the unlikelihood of a near-term IPO, followed by speculative capital buying the dip on $X at single-digit lows. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of $X plummeted from 50.5c to 24.0c, while 'Other' surged from 42.85c to 71.25c, as speculative fervor rapidly cooled and capital returned to the 'Other' option. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of $X surged from 31.5c to 51.0c, while 'Other' plummeted from 62.75c to 45.05c, driven by intense speculative rumors that SpaceX might pursue an IPO under the $X ticker.

Mainstream business and aerospace analysts widely agree that SpaceX will not IPO before the end of 2027, as its core projects (regular Starship flights and Mars colonization) require years of development, and Musk has explicitly ruled out an imminent IPO. Furthermore, the $X ticker currently belongs to the publicly traded U.S. Steel, making it practically impossible for SpaceX to use. The prediction market's pricing of $X at 30.5c completely diverges from the consensus of financial and legal experts, representing a classic case of fan-driven emotional premium and meme speculation.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the market entered a brief stabilization period. Arsenal stabilized around 40c and Man City around 58c, indicating that the standings implications from the weekend's key fixtures have been fully digested by the market with no further major volatility. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Arsenal's price continued to surge from 33c to 40.5c, while Man City's dropped from 64c to 58c. The reason is that as the league enters its final stretch, Man City is further solidifying their lead for the title (decreasing their exact 2nd-place probability), while Arsenal's trend of falling into the runner-up spot becomes more apparent. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, Arsenal's price surged from 13c to 33c, while Man City's plummeted from 76.5c to 64c. The reason is likely a major shift in the title race over the weekend fixtures, where Arsenal might have dropped points, increasing Man City's probability of winning the league (thus lowering their 2nd place odds) and significantly raising Arsenal's risk of finishing as runners-up. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. Man City slightly dipped to 76.5c, and Arsenal ticked up to 13c, keeping the overall landscape steady. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. Man City slightly rebounded to 80.5c, and Arsenal dipped to 10.5c, keeping the overall landscape steady. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. Man City slightly dipped from 80.5c to 77c, and Arsenal ticked up to 12.5c, keeping the overall landscape steady. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. Man City remained stable at 80.5c and Arsenal at 12c, keeping the overall landscape steady. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. Man City slightly dipped to 79.5c while Arsenal ticked up to 11c, indicating no material changes in the title/runner-up race. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. Man City remained steady between 80.5c and 81.5c, and Arsenal maintained 10c, indicating no major upsets or dropped points for the top teams in recent fixtures. April 2, 2026 - April 4, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. The market remained stable, with Man City steady between 80.5c and 81.5c, and Arsenal maintaining 10c, indicating no major upsets or dropped points for the top teams in recent fixtures. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. The market remained stable, with Man City fluctuating narrowly between 79.5c and 81.5c, and Arsenal hovering between 9c and 10c, indicating no major upsets or dropped points for the top teams in recent fixtures. March 31, 2026 - April 2, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. The market remained stable, with Man City fluctuating narrowly between 78.5c and 80.5c, and Arsenal hovering between 9c and 10c. March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. The market remained relatively stable, with Man City fluctuating narrowly between 78.5c and 82.5c, and Arsenal hovering around 9c. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed. The market remained relatively stable, with Man City dipping slightly from 82.5c to 78.5c and Arsenal hovering around 9c. March 25, 2026 - March 28, 2026, no significant price movements (>10c) were observed, with Man City stable around 82.5c and Arsenal around 9.5c. March 18, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the market entered a stabilization phase, with Man City fluctuating narrowly between 78c and 83.5c, and Arsenal slowly recovering from 7c to 10.5c. This indicates the market was digesting the point gap after mid-March volatility and awaiting the results of key fixtures. March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Man City surged from 66.5c to 80c, while Arsenal crashed from 18.5c to 7.5c. This was driven by Arsenal winning key fixtures while City dropped points, causing the market to rapidly price in an Arsenal title victory, effectively locking Man City in as the '2nd Place' finisher.

April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the Republican option price plunged from 58.5c to 46c before quickly rebounding to 61c, while the Democrat option price fell from 39c to 27.5c. This extreme volatility was likely an overreaction to a candidate announcement or early polling data, which was swiftly corrected by arbitrageurs or rational money. March 13, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the Democrat option price surged from 30c to 40.5c. The reason was likely the emerging narrative of 'Democratic Momentum' and a fractured Republican primary field (Masterson, Schwab, Colyer), contrasting with a potentially cleaner Democratic selection process, leading to an aggressive repricing of Democratic chances. March 2, 2026 - March 4, 2026, the Republican option price plunged abnormally from 66c to 51c and immediately rebounded. The reason was likely a liquidity gap or 'fat finger' trade causing a flash crash, which was quickly corrected.

The current market pricing for a Republican victory (61%) is significantly lower than mainstream political expectations. Most political forecasting outlets (e.g., Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) rate the Kansas gubernatorial race as 'Lean Republican' or 'Likely Republican', implying a GOP win probability of 70%-80%. The market's undervaluation likely reflects excessive retail optimism regarding recent Democratic momentum or overblown concerns about a messy GOP primary.

While global warming is a hot topic, betting on specific monthly temperature anomalies (down to 0.01 degrees) is a niche scientific data prediction, less common than elections or sports, but standard for climate watchers.

April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of the 1.20–1.24ºC option surged from 28.5c to 39.5c. This was driven by changing market expectations or preliminary data signaling anomalously high April temperatures, causing a rapid inflow of capital into this bracket. Previous record: Data provided is a single snapshot; without historical price points, volatility cannot be detected.

The market pricing is heavily skewed towards high-temperature brackets (>1.20ºC), which diverges somewhat from traditional climate models that forecast a stronger cooling effect following a La Niña period. While many scientific projections anticipate a reversion closer to historical norms post-La Niña, traders are clearly betting that underlying secular warming and extreme climate inertia will easily overpower this cooling effect.

March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, Lerone Murphy's price surged from 3.95c to 30.35c, likely due to a sudden announcement of a key victory or title shot confirmation, causing the market to rapidly reprice his championship probability. March 14, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Lerone Murphy's price surged from 21c to 37.5c, while Jean Silva's price plummeted from 30c to 14c. This drastic negative correlation strongly suggests a reset in the Featherweight title hierarchy. Murphy likely secured a decisive victory (or benefited from a rival's loss), effectively replacing Silva—who was previously hyped by the market—as the clear second favorite behind the champion. Feb 24, 2026 - Feb 27, 2026, Alexander Volkanovski's price saw minor volatility, recovering from 36c to 41.5c, indicating market confidence stabilized after a brief dip. Meanwhile, Jean Silva remains elevated at 23c despite no new fight news to justify this valuation. Movsar Evloev held steady around the 21c range. Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, the market was stable with no moves exceeding 10c for any major option, typical of a cooling-off period following major simulated events.

This is a classic pop culture and entertainment derivative market. While 'Euphoria' has a massive fanbase and character fates are central discussion points, relative to serious political or economic predictions, this falls into the 'Novelty Market' category—highly topical but lacking broader societal impact.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Rue Bennett's price spiked from 14.5c to 27c, while Faye's price plummeted from 45c to 24c, likely due to speculative betting on new teasers or rumors as the premiere approaches. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, prices for multiple options including Cassie Howard, Elliot, Jules Vaughn, and Nate Jacobs surged indiscriminately by 15c-32c (e.g., Cassie spiked from 17.5c to 50c). This was caused by large unilateral 'Yes' buys in an extremely low-liquidity environment or AMM spread readjustments. March 5, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Jules Vaughn's price spiked from 49c to 71c and quickly reverted to 50c within an hour, likely due to a liquidity crunch or a 'fat finger' trade, as no news justified this volatility. March 4, 2026 - March 10, 2026, Rue Bennett's price drifted upward from 50.5c to 57.5c, likely driven by continued speculation on the 'Rue is dead' fan theory, despite a lack of concrete evidence.