April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026: Multiple options experienced drastic fluctuations of over 10c. The price of '13°C' surged from around 30c to 49.5c, '14°C' jumped from 11c to 24.5c, while '12°C' plummeted from 31c to 12.5c at one point, and '11°C' dropped from 15c to 3.75c. The reason is that as the target date approaches, weather forecasting models have highly converged, confirming that the high temperature will likely settle around 13°C to 14°C, prompting capital to quickly concentrate on the most probable ranges.

Betting on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a random day is a novelty market primarily designed to boost daily engagement. While not a major public event, it is a relatively common fun market on prediction platforms.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 15°C surged from 13.5c to 36.5c, and 14°C rose from 22.5c to 34c, while 13°C plunged from 22.5c to 10.5c, and 12°C crashed from 11.5c to 1.65c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts as the resolution day neared, shifting towards a warmer expected high temperature for Istanbul. No other price movements exceeding 10 ¢ have been observed in the last 3 days.

Between April 17, 2026 and April 18, 2026, the price of the '26°C' option surged from 11.5c to 38c, as the target date approached and the specific impact range of the cold front became clearer, leading to a market consensus converging on 26°C. Between April 17, 2026 and April 18, 2026, the price of the '28°C or higher' option plummeted from 28c to 11.5c, because weather forecasts confirmed Sunday would bring cooler temperatures and rain, breaking previous expectations of continued high heat. Between April 17, 2026 and April 18, 2026, the price of the '24°C' option fell from 23c to 7.5c, as the market ruled out excessive cooling, believing the temperature floor would be supported. Between April 17, 2026 and April 18, 2026, the price of the '23°C' option crashed from 11.5c to 1.2c, also because the likelihood of extreme cooling was largely eliminated by highly accurate near-term weather forecasts.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from around 19c to 45c, and the 20°C option climbed from 10.5c to a peak of 35c. Meanwhile, the 23°C option plummeted from 26.5c to around 6c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, the latest weather forecasts revised the expected high temperature in Busan down from around 23°C to the 20-22°C range, causing money to shift toward the cooler options.

This is a weather prediction market. Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day is not commonly discussed by the general public, but it is a standard quantitative event in prediction markets. It has some novelty but is not extremely bizarre.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 11°C surged from 11.5c to 38c, driven by upward revisions in the latest meteorological models for the day's peak temperature. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 12°C plummeted from 22.3c to around 4.5c, as nearing the resolution date forecasts indicate a significantly lower probability of reaching 12°C. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 9°C dropped from 29c to 15c, due to the upward temperature forecast correction which reduced the likelihood of 9°C being the absolute high.