Forecasting the exact maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is niche and somewhat random for the general public, though it is a standard daily instrument in prediction markets (especially weather derivatives). It is a specialized but routine market.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, the price for the 21°C option surged from 19c to 37c, and the 22°C option rose from 9c to 22.5c, while the 20°C option dropped from 35.5c to 25.5c. This is because, as the date approaches, updated weather models slightly revised the forecasted high temperature towards the 21°C-22°C range, prompting a reallocation of funds.

While the title specifies 'Seoul', the resolution rules explicitly mandate data from the Incheon International Airport Station (RKSI). Incheon is an island/coastal area and may have different temperatures compared to central Seoul, potentially misleading casual bettors. Additionally, integer rounding rules could cause edge-case disputes.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 78-79°F plummeted from 32.5c to 14c, as approaching weather forecasts indicated highs would exceed this range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 84-85°F plummeted from 25.5c to 4.5c, as weather forecasts ruled out extreme high temperatures. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 86-87°F plummeted from 25.5c to 0.6c, as forecasts further confirmed temperatures would not reach this level.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 22°C option plummeted from 23c to around 2c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the date ruled out this lower temperature. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 25°C option dropped from 41.5c to 21c, then fluctuated between 22c and 32c, reflecting shifts in meteorological models centering around 25°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the '29°C or higher' option crashed from 22c to 1.7c, as the possibility of extreme heat was completely eliminated by the latest short-term weather forecasts.

The market is assigning an unreasonably high probability to extreme high-temperature options (e.g., '88°F or higher' at 26c) [3]. Mainstream meteorological forecasts and historical data indicate mid-April highs in Miami hover around 80°F, making 88°F highly unlikely [3, 11, 12]. This suggests emotional betting or severe liquidity imbalances among some participants.

This is a highly specific daily local weather prediction. Aside from local residents or prediction market traders, ordinary people would absolutely not care about the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on a random day in April, making it quite a novelty market.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 24°C option fluctuated and rose from 22c to 31.5c, while the 25°C option plummeted from 44c to 21.5c before rebounding to 32c. This was due to slight adjustments in weather forecast models as the settlement date approached, causing the market to reassess probabilities between 24°C and 25°C.

The implied probability for 25°C (32%) remains the highest in the current prediction market, but multiple mainstream weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature on April 14 will be around 23°C or 24°C. This divergence is likely due to market participants not having fully priced in the latest meteorological updates.

April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' surged from 29.5c to 62c, as approaching settlement date forecasts highly confirmed the high temp will land at 18°C. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' plunged from 36c to 15c, as weather models further ruled out the possibility of reaching 19°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' climbed from 30c to peak at 53c before settling at 46.5c, as approaching settlement date forecasts solidified the high temp near 65°F (18°C). April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '17°C' dropped from 40.5c to 16c and bounced to 20c, because slightly warmer updated weather models shifted funds toward the 18°C and 19°C options. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' fluctuated sharply between 9.5c and 28.5c, reacting to minor updates in daily weather projections. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The prices of '15°C' and '16°C' tumbled to 0.05c as the likelihood of cooler high temperatures was completely ruled out by finalized forecasts.

This is a standard single-day weather prediction market for a specific city. While the general public outside the region or weather traders wouldn't normally think about the exact high temperature in Lucknow, it is a relatively conventional and established type of question in prediction markets.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 38°C option surged from 29c to 46c (peaking at 50c), while the 40°C and 41°C options plummeted from 26.5c and 25c down to roughly 4c and 1.6c, respectively. This was driven by the nearing resolution date and clearer weather forecasts, which ruled out extreme heat scenarios (40°C and above) and stabilized the expected temperature range to 38°C-39°C.

Predicting the exact high temperature in Istanbul, Turkey on a specific day is a somewhat niche topic in daily life. However, within prediction markets, such weather forecasts are a standard subset of events, making it somewhat novel but not overly absurd.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 13°C surged from 17c to 36c as updated meteorological forecasts indicated temperatures stabilizing around 13°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 16°C plummeted from 26c to 2.1c, as the latest models closer to the resolution date ruled out the possibility of a significant warm-up. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, 12°C and 15°C also saw intraday fluctuations exceeding 10c, reflecting shifting market expectations driven by minor tweaks in the cold air forecast.

From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '84°F or higher' option plummeted from 66.5c to 35.5c as approaching weather forecasts adjusted the expected high temperatures downward, focusing more on the 82-83°F range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option surged from 17c to 38.5c, due to updated forecast models significantly increasing the probability of the high temperature falling within this range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '80-81°F' option climbed from 6.5c to 11.6c, reflecting an increased tail-risk of temperatures being slightly lower than expected.

Predicting the exact high temperature in a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche and novel market. Ordinary people do not usually think about or bet on exact daily weather figures, though weather markets are becoming more common in prediction markets.

From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of 60-61°F surged from 20.5c to 40c as the date approached and weather forecasts increasingly converged on this temperature range. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of 64°F or higher plummeted from 26c to around 3c as the possibility of high temperatures was largely ruled out closer to the date.

This is a typical weather prediction market. While predicting the exact temperature range for a specific city on a single day is somewhat niche and granular for the general public, it is a standard and regular novelty category within prediction markets.

While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city down to the degree is a relatively niche and somewhat novelty-driven market.

Predicting the specific maximum temperature of a city on a given day is a typical novelty market. While normal for meteorology enthusiasts, placing bets on exact temperature ranges for this specific date holds a moderate degree of novelty for the general public.