While the title specifies 'Seoul', the resolution rules explicitly mandate data from the Incheon International Airport Station (RKSI). Incheon is an island/coastal area and may have different temperatures compared to central Seoul, potentially misleading casual bettors. Additionally, integer rounding rules could cause edge-case disputes.

Predicting the exact high temperature in Istanbul, Turkey on a specific day is a somewhat niche topic in daily life. However, within prediction markets, such weather forecasts are a standard subset of events, making it somewhat novel but not overly absurd.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 13°C surged from 17c to 36c as updated meteorological forecasts indicated temperatures stabilizing around 13°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 16°C plummeted from 26c to 2.1c, as the latest models closer to the resolution date ruled out the possibility of a significant warm-up. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, 12°C and 15°C also saw intraday fluctuations exceeding 10c, reflecting shifting market expectations driven by minor tweaks in the cold air forecast.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 78-79°F plummeted from 32.5c to 14c, as approaching weather forecasts indicated highs would exceed this range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 84-85°F plummeted from 25.5c to 4.5c, as weather forecasts ruled out extreme high temperatures. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 86-87°F plummeted from 25.5c to 0.6c, as forecasts further confirmed temperatures would not reach this level.

Predicting the exact high temperature in a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche and novel market. Ordinary people do not usually think about or bet on exact daily weather figures, though weather markets are becoming more common in prediction markets.

From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of 60-61°F surged from 20.5c to 40c as the date approached and weather forecasts increasingly converged on this temperature range. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of 64°F or higher plummeted from 26c to around 3c as the possibility of high temperatures was largely ruled out closer to the date.

This is a highly specific daily local weather prediction. Aside from local residents or prediction market traders, ordinary people would absolutely not care about the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on a random day in April, making it quite a novelty market.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 24°C option fluctuated and rose from 22c to 31.5c, while the 25°C option plummeted from 44c to 21.5c before rebounding to 32c. This was due to slight adjustments in weather forecast models as the settlement date approached, causing the market to reassess probabilities between 24°C and 25°C.

The implied probability for 25°C (32%) remains the highest in the current prediction market, but multiple mainstream weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature on April 14 will be around 23°C or 24°C. This divergence is likely due to market participants not having fully priced in the latest meteorological updates.

While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city down to the degree is a relatively niche and somewhat novelty-driven market.

From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '84°F or higher' option plummeted from 66.5c to 35.5c as approaching weather forecasts adjusted the expected high temperatures downward, focusing more on the 82-83°F range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option surged from 17c to 38.5c, due to updated forecast models significantly increasing the probability of the high temperature falling within this range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '80-81°F' option climbed from 6.5c to 11.6c, reflecting an increased tail-risk of temperatures being slightly lower than expected.

The primary risk lies in the upcoming 'Filing Deadline'. With the deadline around March 23, 2026, and the current date being March 11, there is a 12-day window for new, unlisted candidates to enter the race. Notable figures like Alina Habba (recently blocked from a US Attorney role) or Vinnie Brand could officially file. If the winner is not one of the named options and the market lacks a tradable 'Field/Other Candidate' option (the rules only explicitly define 'Other' for a 'no primary' scenario), this creates significant resolution ambiguity and risk of a 'dark horse' victory.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 29°C option plummeted from 25.5c to 4.3c, the 25°C option dropped from 25c to 7.5c, while the 28°C option rose from 20.5c to 30.5c. This is because, as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models have converged, ruling out more extreme temperatures (25°C and 29°C) and concentrating market confidence in the 26°C-28°C range. In the previous analysis, no options had experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the prior 3 days.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' plummeted from 25c to 4c before recovering to 8.9c, as weather models adjusted the expected temperatures upward during the rain event, pricing out extreme cold. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '46-47°F' dropped from 34c to 19.5c before rebounding to 31c, reflecting market indecision and minor model adjustments regarding the exact magnitude of the frontal cooling.

There is a noticeable divergence. Mainstream forecasts (like NWS and KING 5) project a high around 50-51°F, yet the market assigns the highest probability (~68%) to the colder 46-49°F range. This suggests the market might be relying on more aggressive cold-front models (like specific high-res local models) or anticipating that continuous rain will suppress the actual daytime high more than generic forecasts suggest.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, the price of the 86-87°F option surged from ~29c to 42.5c, and the 84-85°F option rose from ~18.5c to over 34c. Concurrently, the 82-83°F option plummeted from 26.5c to 12.5c. This significant shift was driven by updated weather forecasts, which revised the expected high temperature upwards from 82°F to the 85-87°F range.

April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 22°C experienced extreme volatility, plunging from 36.5c in the early hours to 8.0c, and then surging to 43.5c in the afternoon, driven by rapid updates in short-term meteorological forecasting models. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 24°C climbed from 14.0c to a peak of 32.0c before falling back to 18.5c, influenced by shifting expectations regarding the maximum temperature cap due to changing rain probabilities.

There is a slight divergence. Current mainstream weather forecasts predict tomorrow's high to be between 19°C and 22°C with light rain. However, the prediction market is still assigning significant probabilities to 23°C (24.5%) and 24°C (18.5%). The market may be overestimating the airport station's heat island effect or resilience to the forecasted rain.