April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 17°C heavily fluctuated, dropping from 43.5c to 10.5c before rebounding to 27.5c, as intraday real-time forecasts hovered between 61°F and 62°F, directly impacting the rounded Celsius outcome. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 15°C surged from 16.5c to 32.5c before falling back to 15.5c, driven by brief concerns over cloud cover limiting the high, before forecasts reaffirmed warmer trends. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 16°C surged steadily from 17.5c to a peak of 52.5c before settling at 38.5c, as models became highly confident in a peak of at least 16°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 14°C plummeted from a high of 23c to under 1c, because updated forecasts consistently indicated temperatures would exceed 14°C significantly.

Between April 13 and April 14, 2026, the price of 15°C plummeted from 22c to 7.5c (later rebounding slightly to 10.5c), and 13°C fell from 12.5c to near zero (0.45c). The reason is that as the expiration date approaches, updated forecasts have confidently shifted the expected high temperature to the 16°C-17°C range, virtually eliminating the chances of cooler outcomes.

While checking the weather is a common daily activity, placing bets on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche prediction market activity that most people do not actively ponder.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price for 19°C surged from 24c to a peak of 41c before falling to 36.5c, while 18°C rose from 14c to 27c. This volatility was driven by initial weather models predicting warmer highs (around 19°C), followed by subsequent cooler forecast updates that redirected capital towards the 17°C and 18°C options.

The market still prices 19°C as the frontrunner (36.5c), yet the latest official Wunderground forecasts explicitly show the expected high for April 15 has been revised down to 63°F-64°F (17°C-18°C) [2]. There is a lag in the market's reaction to the updated meteorological models, causing a significant divergence between the priced expectations and the current weather reality.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 28°C option plunged from 34c to 18c (before slightly recovering to 23c), as weather models narrowed their forecast ranges for the peak temperature as the date approached, reducing the probability of higher extremes and shifting the center towards 26°C-27°C. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 30°C option dropped from 12.5c to around 2.5c, also due to increased certainty in weather forecasts ruling out the likelihood of unusually high temperatures.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 27.5c to 40.5c, as approaching the resolution date, updated meteorological models further solidified 23°C as the most likely high-temperature bracket. April 13, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 31c to 11.5c before rebounding to 24.5c. This was caused by conflicting updates from different weather forecasting sources on that day, leading to short-term severe volatility in market expectations.

While the title specifies 'Seoul', the resolution rules explicitly mandate data from the Incheon International Airport Station (RKSI). Incheon is an island/coastal area and may have different temperatures compared to central Seoul, potentially misleading casual bettors. Additionally, integer rounding rules could cause edge-case disputes.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '21°C or higher' option surged significantly from 23.15c to 40.1c, while the '20°C' option rose from 26c to 31c. This is due to updated weather forecasts closer to the date showing a high probability of the maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 20°C, or even 21°C. No significant price movements over 10c were observed in the last 3 days. As the target date approaches, weather forecasts remain stable, resulting in a steady distribution of capital.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 23°C option plummeted from 24.5c to 5.5c, and the 24°C option crashed from 19c to around 3c. This was because as the date approached, weather forecasts converged, largely ruling out the probability of extreme highs (23°C and above). April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 21°C option fluctuated wildly between 14c and 29.5c. This was caused by the latest updates from different meteorological models swinging between 19°C and 22°C, leading to frequent adjustments in market probability distribution across this temperature range.

Predicting the specific maximum temperature of a city on a given day is a typical novelty market. While normal for meteorology enthusiasts, placing bets on exact temperature ranges for this specific date holds a moderate degree of novelty for the general public.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, as updated weather forecasts confirmed the trend of rain and cooler temperatures, the price of the 44-45°F option plummeted from 20c to 2.8c, and the 52-53°F option dropped from 13.5c to 2.95c. Meanwhile, market consensus gravitated toward the middle ranges, pushing the 48-49°F option from 26.5c to 40c, and the 46-47°F option from 25c to 37.5c.

While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city down to the degree is a relatively niche and somewhat novelty-driven market.

Between April 13 and April 14, 2026, the price of the 76-77°F option surged from 14c to 36.5c, and the 78-79°F option climbed from 21.5c to 37.5c, while the '82°F or higher' option plummeted from 37c to around 8.7c. This occurred because as the date approached, weather forecasts ruled out extreme highs and narrowed the projected temperature to the 76-80°F range.

This is a typical weather prediction market. While predicting the exact temperature range for a specific city on a single day is somewhat niche and granular for the general public, it is a standard and regular novelty category within prediction markets.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 86-87°F option steadily climbed from 34c to 47.5c, while the 84-85°F option experienced intense volatility, plunging from 33c to 10c before rebounding to 28c. Meanwhile, the 88-89°F option dropped from 29c to 17.5c. This was due to fine-tuning in weather forecast models during this period, which reduced the probability of extreme highs and led the market consensus to converge on the core range of 86-87°F. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, no options saw a price movement exceeding 10 cents, indicating stable market expectations.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option first rose from 31c to 41.5c, then fell back to 33c; meanwhile, the 84-85°F option plummeted from 20c to 9c. This was due to updated weather forecasts lowering the expected high temperatures as the resolution date approaches, ruling out extreme heat. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, no significant price movements exceeding 10c were detected.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts indicate a high of 76-79°F on April 15, yet the prediction market assigns extremely high probabilities to 80-81°F (40.5%) and 82-83°F (33%). This is likely because the market has not fully priced in the latest cooling forecast, leading to an overvaluation of higher temperature options.

Between April 13 and April 14, 2026, the price of the 18°C option climbed from around 25.5c to a peak of 41c, while the 16°C option plummeted from 30.5c to 14.5c, and the 15°C option dropped from 18.5c to roughly 1c. This is due to weather forecast models filtering out abnormal cooling noise as the target date approaches, confirming a relatively warmer trend.

Weather forecasting is a standard but small niche in prediction markets. While not extremely bizarre, predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is not a mainstream event with widespread public attention like politics or finance.

On April 13, 2026, the price of '25°C or higher' plunged from 25.5c to 4c, '19°C' dropped from 20c to 11c, and '18°C' fell from 19.5c to 9.5c. Options '17°C' and '16°C' also saw drops of over 10c. This is due to updated weather forecasts as the resolution date approaches, causing market funds to surprisingly concentrate around the 20°C to 22°C range, despite slight deviations from the newest forecasts.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather and Weather Underground [2, 5]) predict a high of 18°C to 19°C for Cape Town on April 15. However, the prediction market currently prices 21°C as the favorite (27c) and gives high probabilities to 20°C and 22°C (21.5c each). The market might be misled by historical average temperatures or outdated early forecasts.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of Unicorns of Love Sexy Edition crashed from 43.5c to 0.35c, French Flair from 31.85c to 0.15c, and BIG from 15.35c to 0.2c, likely because these teams were eliminated from the EMEA Masters 2026 Winter tournament. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, BIG's price dropped sharply from 27.45c to 0.55c (before briefly rebounding to 15.35c on the 13th) due to critical match results causing severe fluctuations in their advancement prospects.

The rules define 'military action' very narrowly and strictly. It must be aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that actually impact Iranian soil. Intercepted attacks, cyberattacks, artillery, or ground incursions do not qualify. Additionally, a strict 3-day deadline for credible confirmation applies. There is a high risk of misinterpretation for those who only read the title.

A direct Israeli military strike on Iranian soil would severely escalate Middle East tensions, triggering fears of global energy supply disruptions and causing a significant spike in Crude Oil prices. Simultaneously, this geopolitical shock would spark a strong risk-off sentiment, driving capital into safe-haven assets like Gold, while causing a notable drop in broad global equity indices such as the S&P 500.

April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 'April 14' option plummeted from 25c to 1.15c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 44.5c to 24c, as no direct conflict erupted in the short term and the April 14 deadline approached, causing market expectations to cool rapidly. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the 'April 14' option surged from 11c to 25c, and the 'April 21' option climbed from 25c to 44.5c, due to intensified market fears of a potential retaliatory military strike over the weekend. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 'April 14' option dropped from 25c to 11c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 32.5c to 25c, reflecting a brief expectation of de-escalation. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the 'April 14' option dropped from 43c to 17.5c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 59.5c to 38.5c, due to the fading of initial panic and potential diplomatic interventions tempering short-term expectations.