The rules define 'military action' very narrowly and strictly. It must be aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that actually impact Iranian soil. Intercepted attacks, cyberattacks, artillery, or ground incursions do not qualify. Additionally, a strict 3-day deadline for credible confirmation applies. There is a high risk of misinterpretation for those who only read the title.

A direct Israeli military strike on Iranian soil would severely escalate Middle East tensions, triggering fears of global energy supply disruptions and causing a significant spike in Crude Oil prices. Simultaneously, this geopolitical shock would spark a strong risk-off sentiment, driving capital into safe-haven assets like Gold, while causing a notable drop in broad global equity indices such as the S&P 500.

April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 'April 14' option plummeted from 25c to 1.15c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 44.5c to 24c, as no direct conflict erupted in the short term and the April 14 deadline approached, causing market expectations to cool rapidly. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the 'April 14' option surged from 11c to 25c, and the 'April 21' option climbed from 25c to 44.5c, due to intensified market fears of a potential retaliatory military strike over the weekend. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 'April 14' option dropped from 25c to 11c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 32.5c to 25c, reflecting a brief expectation of de-escalation. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the 'April 14' option dropped from 43c to 17.5c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 59.5c to 38.5c, due to the fading of initial panic and potential diplomatic interventions tempering short-term expectations.

The trap lies in: 1) Merely referencing violations isn't enough; it must explicitly declare the ceasefire over. 2) Replacing it with a new agreement without direct hostilities won't qualify as an end. 3) Reality doesn't matter; only official announcements count (from the US government or Trump's posts). The strict requirement for definitive language makes 'Yes' resolutions tricky.

The end of a ceasefire between the US and Iran would signal a severe escalation in Middle East conflict. This would directly cause Crude Oil prices to spike due to supply disruption fears. Gold would also rise as a safe-haven asset, while broad equities (S&P 500) could face downward pressure due to geopolitical risk and inflation fears from higher oil prices.

April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Yes prices for all options declined significantly, with April 21 dropping from 37c to 21.5c, April 18 from 29c to 11c, and April 15 from 19.5c to 5.5c. This was due to the ongoing lack of official statements as time passed, rapidly cooling market expectations for a near-term termination announcement. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for April 21 rose from 25.5c to 37c, and April 18 rose from 19c to 29c, likely due to weekend localized frictions or negative news briefly heightening fears of the ceasefire collapsing. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for the April 18 option rose from 18.5c to 29c. The reason is that as time passes, the market anticipates increased pressure from localized frictions during the two-week period, accumulating the risk of an official declaration of the agreement's collapse and driving up the prices of mid-to-longer-term options. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the Yes prices for all options plummeted (e.g., April 15 dropped from 44c to 13.5c). This sharp decline occurred because the market initially overestimated the probability of a rapid collapse right after the agreement was signed, and subsequently cooled down, revising downward the expectations of an official termination in the short term.

Direct military conflict and ceasefire statuses between the US and Iran significantly impact global macro assets. Crude Oil is highly sensitive to Middle East supply risks and the Strait of Hormuz, meaning a ceasefire extension would drastically reduce geopolitical risk premiums. Concurrently, safe-haven assets like Gold and broader equity indices (S&P 500) would be directly moved by major shifts in market risk sentiment.

April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 'April 21' option rebounded from 39c to around 65c, as market optimism renewed regarding an agreement before the final April 21 deadline. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 'April 14' option steadily dropped from 15c to 1c due to the approaching deadline with no substantive extension announcement, completely draining its time value. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 'April 21' option plunged from 73.5c to 39c, reflecting short-term negotiation setbacks or spreading pessimism at that time.

There is a significant rule trap. Even if hostilities actually resume or actions inconsistent with the ceasefire occur (e.g., closing a strait), the market will resolve to 'No' unless the US government or Trump explicitly labels it a 'breach' or 'violation' of the ceasefire in their statement. Additionally, breaches solely attributed to Israel do not qualify.

This is a geopolitical prediction. While US-Iran conflicts are common macro topics, betting on whether a ceasefire breaks within a specific tight window, contingent strictly on the 'official phrasing' of the announcement, adds a level of novelty and specific conditional constraints.

An official announcement that the US-Iran ceasefire has broken would trigger severe market panic. Crude Oil prices would experience a structural spike due to Middle East geopolitical risks and supply disruption threats. Safe-haven assets like Gold and US Treasuries (driving the US 10Y Yield down) would see aggressive bidding. Concurrently, risk assets like the S&P 500 would face a massive downward shock.

2026-04-12 to 2026-04-14, the Yes price of the April 14 option plummeted from 22.5c to 2.9c, and the April 21 Yes price fell from 40c to 28.5c. The reason is the extreme proximity to the April 14 deadline without any official statements indicating a breach of the ceasefire, causing the market to heavily discount the likelihood of a sudden incident.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 22°C option plummeted from 23c to around 2c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the date ruled out this lower temperature. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 25°C option dropped from 41.5c to 21c, then fluctuated between 22c and 32c, reflecting shifts in meteorological models centering around 25°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the '29°C or higher' option crashed from 22c to 1.7c, as the possibility of extreme heat was completely eliminated by the latest short-term weather forecasts.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 78-79°F plummeted from 32.5c to 14c, as approaching weather forecasts indicated highs would exceed this range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 84-85°F plummeted from 25.5c to 4.5c, as weather forecasts ruled out extreme high temperatures. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 86-87°F plummeted from 25.5c to 0.6c, as forecasts further confirmed temperatures would not reach this level.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of '19°C' surged from 15c to 99.85c, because as Wellington local time entered the afternoon of April 14, the maximum temperature data was virtually confirmed at 19°C, and the market priced in this certainty. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' surged from 29.5c to 62c, as approaching settlement date forecasts highly confirmed the high temp will land at 18°C. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' plunged from 36c to 15c, as weather models further ruled out the possibility of reaching 19°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' climbed from 30c to peak at 53c before settling at 46.5c, as approaching settlement date forecasts solidified the high temp near 65°F (18°C). April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '17°C' dropped from 40.5c to 16c and bounced to 20c, because slightly warmer updated weather models shifted funds toward the 18°C and 19°C options. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' fluctuated sharply between 9.5c and 28.5c, reacting to minor updates in daily weather projections. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The prices of '15°C' and '16°C' tumbled to 0.05c as the likelihood of cooler high temperatures was completely ruled out by finalized forecasts.

This is a standard single-day weather prediction market for a specific city. While the general public outside the region or weather traders wouldn't normally think about the exact high temperature in Lucknow, it is a relatively conventional and established type of question in prediction markets.

April 14, 2026, the price of the 38°C option surged from 33.5c to 85c, while the 39°C option plummeted from 56.5c to 13.5c. This was due to real-time weather data and the latest forecasts for the day indicating that the high temperature would peak at 38°C (around 101°F), largely ruling out the possibility of reaching 39°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 38°C option surged from 29c to 46c (peaking at 50c), while the 40°C and 41°C options plummeted from 26.5c and 25c down to roughly 4c and 1.6c, respectively. This was driven by the nearing resolution date and clearer weather forecasts, which ruled out extreme heat scenarios (40°C and above) and stabilized the expected temperature range to 38°C-39°C.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a standard derivative offering in prediction markets, but it remains a somewhat niche and obscure topic for the general public.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of the 30°C option surged from 20.5c to 40c as real-time meteorological data on the resolution day showed temperatures climbing higher than previously expected, prompting a rapid market adjustment. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 29°C option surged from 18.5c to 38c as updated short-term meteorological data predicted an incoming heatwave would affect Tel Aviv earlier than expected, causing a sharp upward revision in temperature expectations. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 27°C option plummeted from 24.5c to 6.5c, as the expected temperature range shifted to 28°C-30°C, effectively ruling out lower temperatures in the market.

Mainstream weather forecast websites generally predict a high of around 26°C to 27°C for Tel Aviv on April 14, but the prediction market pricing is currently concentrated at 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C, significantly higher than this consensus. This divergence likely occurs because market traders rely on real-time observation data or more sensitive short-term models specific to the NOAA Ben Gurion Airport station, which often capture higher extreme peaks than generalized city-level forecasts.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common niche in prediction markets, though the general public rarely bets on or contemplates such precise temperature values in daily life.

April 14, 2026 04:23 - April 14, 2026 08:43, the price of 17°C surged from 26c to 97.6c, as real-time temperature data became available throughout the day, locking the high temperature at 17°C. April 14, 2026 04:23 - April 14, 2026 08:43, the price of 18°C plunged from 55c to 2.2c, as the actual temperature failed to reach 18°C, shattering market expectations. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 19.5c to 34.5c, as weather forecast models indicated cloud cover or residual cold air might keep the high temperature slightly below the expected 18°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 20.5c to 46.5c, as weather forecast models gradually converged, further confirming the high temperature would likely be around 18°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 17°C fluctuated heavily between 13c and 27c, due to minor variations in the forecast regarding the impact of a cold front, causing market expectations to swing between 17°C and 18°C.

April 14, 2026, the 21°C option surged from 14.5c to 97.7c, while the 20°C option collapsed from 82.5c to near 0c. This was because it was already late afternoon in local Chongqing time, and actual meteorological observations confirmed the day's high reached 21°C, removing all suspense. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 20°C option plummeted from 30.5c to 13c (before slightly rebounding to 16.5c). This was due to updated weather forecast models predicting a warmer trend for April 14 (adjusting expectations upward to 21-22°C), significantly reducing the probability of cooler outcomes. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 22°C option surged from 18.5c to 33c (stabilizing at 28c), as models confirmed a high likelihood of reaching 71°F (approx. 21.6°C, easily rounding or fluctuating up to 22°C).

Forecasting the exact maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is niche and somewhat random for the general public, though it is a standard daily instrument in prediction markets (especially weather derivatives). It is a specialized but routine market.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the Yes price for the 18°C option surged from around 3c to 99.55c, while the prices for 19°C, 20°C, 21°C, and other options plummeted to near 0c. This is because as April 14 arrived, actual meteorological observation data locked the highest temperature at 18°C, causing market funds to rapidly concentrate on the correct outcome. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price for the 21°C option surged from 19c to 37c, and the 22°C option rose from 9c to 22.5c, while the 20°C option dropped from 35.5c to 25.5c. This is because, as the date approached, updated weather models slightly revised the forecasted high temperature towards the 21°C-22°C range, prompting a reallocation of funds.

This is a highly specific daily local weather prediction. Aside from local residents or prediction market traders, ordinary people would absolutely not care about the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on a random day in April, making it quite a novelty market.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 26°C option surged from 34c to 85c, while the 25°C and 24°C options plummeted to near 0c. This was due to actual temperature observations on the settlement day exceeding previous forecast models, prompting the market to price in certainty based on real-time data from the airport monitoring station. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 24°C option fluctuated and rose from 22c to 31.5c, while the 25°C option plummeted from 44c to 21.5c before rebounding to 32c. This was due to slight adjustments in weather forecast models as the settlement date approached, causing the market to reassess probabilities between 24°C and 25°C.

There is a divergence between the market pricing (which overwhelmingly favors 26°C) and some mainstream weather forecast sites (which display an expected high of around 24°C for the day). This usually happens because specific airport weather stations (like ZUUU) often record slightly higher temperatures than broader city forecasts due to localized factors or the runway heat island effect. Prediction market participants likely have an information advantage, capturing these micro-climate differences or reacting to real-time observations [10, 11].

From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '84°F or higher' option plummeted from 66.5c to 35.5c as approaching weather forecasts adjusted the expected high temperatures downward, focusing more on the 82-83°F range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option surged from 17c to 38.5c, due to updated forecast models significantly increasing the probability of the high temperature falling within this range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '80-81°F' option climbed from 6.5c to 11.6c, reflecting an increased tail-risk of temperatures being slightly lower than expected.

The rules explicitly designate the Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) station as the resolution source, rather than a generic downtown or metropolitan LA weather forecast. Because the airport is coastal, its temperatures are typically significantly lower than inland areas. Traders face a substantial risk of misjudgment if they rely on general 'Los Angeles weather' without noting the specific measurement station.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '70-71°F' surged from 12.5c to 32c as nearer-term forecasts trended warmer, leading traders to bid up higher temperature ranges. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '64-65°F' plummeted from 26.5c to 2.05c, as updated weather models effectively ruled out such a low maximum temperature for the day.

There is a notable divergence. The specific National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for the KLAX station projects a high near 65°F for April 14, whereas the prediction market strongly favors the 68-71°F range (over 60% implied probability). This often happens when traders reference general 'Los Angeles' weather forecasts, which are typically warmer, rather than the specific coastal KLAX station, which is cooled by the marine layer.