2026-03-30 - 2026-04-02, Jonathan Bush's price surged from 13c to 30.2c. The reason is continuous capital rotation from other candidates, establishing him as the primary challenger to Robert Charles. 2026-03-16 - 2026-03-17, David Jones's price surged from 1.9c to 13.5c (a move of >11c) before settling around 10c. The reason is likely speculative capital aggressively seeking a new challenger as Ben Midgely fades, causing liquidity-driven spikes in long-shot options. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-16, Jonathan Bush experienced a rollercoaster, spiking from 4.9c to 18.3c before crashing back to 9.3c, further confirming the chaos and speculation within the non-frontrunner field. 2026-02-25 - 2026-03-03, Robert Charles's price climbed steadily from 50.5c to 61c, while Ben Midgely dropped from 35c to 24.5c, marking the pivotal consolidation phase where Charles was established as the clear favorite.

April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Joshua McKee's price surged from 8c to 25.5c before crashing back to 6.55c, driven by severe illiquidity amplifying small buy orders, followed by an immediate price correction. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Jerry Carl's price climbed from 32.5c to 44c and retraced to 36c due to shifting expectations in his voter base and arbitrageur intervention. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Rhett Marques' price spiked from 40.5c to 53c, likely fueled by late-stage momentum such as a key local endorsement or fundraising bump ahead of the primary.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 22°C option plummeted from 23c to around 2c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the date ruled out this lower temperature. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 25°C option dropped from 41.5c to 21c, then fluctuated between 22c and 32c, reflecting shifts in meteorological models centering around 25°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the '29°C or higher' option crashed from 22c to 1.7c, as the possibility of extreme heat was completely eliminated by the latest short-term weather forecasts.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 78-79°F plummeted from 32.5c to 14c, as approaching weather forecasts indicated highs would exceed this range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 84-85°F plummeted from 25.5c to 4.5c, as weather forecasts ruled out extreme high temperatures. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 86-87°F plummeted from 25.5c to 0.6c, as forecasts further confirmed temperatures would not reach this level.

April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' surged from 29.5c to 62c, as approaching settlement date forecasts highly confirmed the high temp will land at 18°C. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' plunged from 36c to 15c, as weather models further ruled out the possibility of reaching 19°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' climbed from 30c to peak at 53c before settling at 46.5c, as approaching settlement date forecasts solidified the high temp near 65°F (18°C). April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '17°C' dropped from 40.5c to 16c and bounced to 20c, because slightly warmer updated weather models shifted funds toward the 18°C and 19°C options. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' fluctuated sharply between 9.5c and 28.5c, reacting to minor updates in daily weather projections. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The prices of '15°C' and '16°C' tumbled to 0.05c as the likelihood of cooler high temperatures was completely ruled out by finalized forecasts.

This is a standard single-day weather prediction market for a specific city. While the general public outside the region or weather traders wouldn't normally think about the exact high temperature in Lucknow, it is a relatively conventional and established type of question in prediction markets.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 38°C option surged from 29c to 46c (peaking at 50c), while the 40°C and 41°C options plummeted from 26.5c and 25c down to roughly 4c and 1.6c, respectively. This was driven by the nearing resolution date and clearer weather forecasts, which ruled out extreme heat scenarios (40°C and above) and stabilized the expected temperature range to 38°C-39°C.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a standard derivative offering in prediction markets, but it remains a somewhat niche and obscure topic for the general public.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 29°C option surged from 18.5c to 38c as updated short-term meteorological data predicted an incoming heatwave would affect Tel Aviv earlier than expected, causing a sharp upward revision in temperature expectations. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 27°C option plummeted from 24.5c to 6.5c, as the expected temperature range shifted to 28°C-30°C, effectively ruling out lower temperatures in the market.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasting websites (such as The Weather Channel, AccuWeather) widely predict a high of around 26°C to 27°C (approx. 79°F-80°F) for April 14, whereas the prediction market assigns an overwhelmingly high probability (over 85% combined) to 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C. This discrepancy likely arises because market participants are utilizing highly localized models specific to the NOAA LLBG station or have priced in a sudden, sharp temperature spike caused by an approaching Saharan heatwave [3, 4, 7].

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common niche in prediction markets, though the general public rarely bets on or contemplates such precise temperature values in daily life.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 19.5c to 34.5c, as weather forecast models indicated cloud cover or residual cold air might keep the high temperature slightly below the expected 18°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 20.5c to 46.5c, as weather forecast models gradually converged, further confirming the high temperature would likely be around 18°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 17°C fluctuated heavily between 13c and 27c, due to minor variations in the forecast regarding the impact of a cold front, causing market expectations to swing between 17°C and 18°C.

This is a highly niche and granular localized event. Unless participating in weather-related prediction markets, the general public does not typically ponder or predict the exact highest temperature in Singapore on a given day, making it a high novelty market.

April 14, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '33°C or higher' surged from 38.5c to 99.95c, and '32°C' plunged from 44.5c to 0.05c, because the actual temperature in Singapore reached or exceeded 33°C during the day, effectively deciding the outcome. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '33°C or higher' surged from 11c to 33.5c, as short-term weather forecasts approaching the date indicated a higher likelihood of extreme heat. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '31°C' plunged from 37.5c to 17.5c, due to the confirmation of higher temperature expectations drastically reducing the probability of lower temperature ranges. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of '30°C' plummeted from 27c to 8c, similarly because incoming meteorological data ruled out the possibility of relatively cooler weather.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 20°C option plummeted from 30.5c to 13c (before slightly rebounding to 16.5c), and the 19°C option dropped from 19.5c to 6.5c. This was due to updated weather forecast models predicting a warmer trend for April 14 (adjusting expectations upward to 21-22°C), significantly reducing the probability of cooler outcomes. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 22°C option surged from 18.5c to 33c (stabilizing at 28c), as models confirmed a high likelihood of reaching 71°F (approx. 21.6°C, easily rounding or fluctuating up to 22°C).

Forecasting the exact maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is niche and somewhat random for the general public, though it is a standard daily instrument in prediction markets (especially weather derivatives). It is a specialized but routine market.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, the price for the 21°C option surged from 19c to 37c, and the 22°C option rose from 9c to 22.5c, while the 20°C option dropped from 35.5c to 25.5c. This is because, as the date approaches, updated weather models slightly revised the forecasted high temperature towards the 21°C-22°C range, prompting a reallocation of funds.

This is a highly specific daily local weather prediction. Aside from local residents or prediction market traders, ordinary people would absolutely not care about the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on a random day in April, making it quite a novelty market.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 24°C option fluctuated and rose from 22c to 31.5c, while the 25°C option plummeted from 44c to 21.5c before rebounding to 32c. This was due to slight adjustments in weather forecast models as the settlement date approached, causing the market to reassess probabilities between 24°C and 25°C.

The implied probability for 25°C (32%) remains the highest in the current prediction market, but multiple mainstream weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature on April 14 will be around 23°C or 24°C. This divergence is likely due to market participants not having fully priced in the latest meteorological updates.

From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '84°F or higher' option plummeted from 66.5c to 35.5c as approaching weather forecasts adjusted the expected high temperatures downward, focusing more on the 82-83°F range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option surged from 17c to 38.5c, due to updated forecast models significantly increasing the probability of the high temperature falling within this range. From April 12, 2026 to April 13, 2026, the price of the '80-81°F' option climbed from 6.5c to 11.6c, reflecting an increased tail-risk of temperatures being slightly lower than expected.

The rules explicitly designate the Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) station as the resolution source, rather than a generic downtown or metropolitan LA weather forecast. Because the airport is coastal, its temperatures are typically significantly lower than inland areas. Traders face a substantial risk of misjudgment if they rely on general 'Los Angeles weather' without noting the specific measurement station.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '70-71°F' surged from 12.5c to 32c as nearer-term forecasts trended warmer, leading traders to bid up higher temperature ranges. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '64-65°F' plummeted from 26.5c to 2.05c, as updated weather models effectively ruled out such a low maximum temperature for the day.

There is a notable divergence. The specific National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for the KLAX station projects a high near 65°F for April 14, whereas the prediction market strongly favors the 68-71°F range (over 60% implied probability). This often happens when traders reference general 'Los Angeles' weather forecasts, which are typically warmer, rather than the specific coastal KLAX station, which is cooled by the marine layer.

Predicting the exact high temperature in a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche and novel market. Ordinary people do not usually think about or bet on exact daily weather figures, though weather markets are becoming more common in prediction markets.

From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of 60-61°F surged from 20.5c to 40c as the date approached and weather forecasts increasingly converged on this temperature range. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of 64°F or higher plummeted from 26c to around 3c as the possibility of high temperatures was largely ruled out closer to the date.