April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Washington Capitals price surged from 13.05c to 22c, as the team secured a crucial late-season victory, keeping their wild-card hopes alive. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Philadelphia Flyers price dropped from 82.5c to 66c, due to a late-season loss that reopened the door for their Eastern Conference rivals. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Columbus Blue Jackets price collapsed from 26.5c to 4.95c, as a critical late-season loss severely diminished their playoff probabilities. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Nashville Predators price surged from 12.5c to 29.5c, as rivals dropping points renewed their hopes of securing a wild card spot. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Anaheim Ducks price dropped from 97.85c to 86.2c, likely because they failed to clinch early, leaving their fate to be decided in the final stretch. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Philadelphia Flyers price surged from 43c to 81c before stabilizing at 77.5c, driven by key victories that solidified their standing in the East. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Los Angeles Kings price climbed from 73.5c to a peak of 90c before settling at 88c, after securing vital points in the Western Conference. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Winnipeg Jets price collapsed from 17.5c to 1c, as recent losses effectively eliminated them from contention mathematically. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, New York Islanders price collapsed from 44.5c to nearly 0c as they lost critical games and were effectively eliminated from the wild card race. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, Los Angeles Kings price surged from 62c to a peak of 90c before retracing and then rising to 86c, as the team secured crucial points in the Western Conference Wild Card race before standings adjustments corrected the probability, though recent wins solidified their hopes again. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, New York Islanders price experienced severe volatility, rising from 15.5c to 44.5c before plunging to 1.15c and slightly rebounding to 5.6c, due to critical losses that eliminated their control of the wild card race. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, Philadelphia Flyers price dipped from 66.5c to 42c before rebounding strongly to 79.5c and settling at 68c, solidifying their standing with consecutive wins in the Eastern playoff race after initial struggles. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, Nashville Predators price plunged from 39c to around 13.5c, as rivals secured consecutive wins while they fell significantly behind. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, San Jose Sharks price plummeted from 19.5c to near 0c, as consecutive losses mathematically eliminated them from contention. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, Columbus Blue Jackets price dropped sharply from 29.5c to 4c before rebounding to around 18c, driven by mixed results in bubble matchups causing severe market expectation swings. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, Anaheim Ducks price rose steadily from 83.95c to over 98c, having secured the necessary points to clinch a playoff berth. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Ottawa Senators price surged from 83.5c to 98.25c before settling around 92c, driven by consecutive wins in the final stretch to solidify their standings. April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Boston Bruins price surged from 87.85c to 99.05c, driven by winning a crucial matchup that confirmed their advancement. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, Utah Mammoth price dropped from 95.85c to 85.6c, as a late regular-season loss introduced uncertainty into their standings, leading the market to downgrade their qualification probability. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, Pittsburgh Penguins price surged from 69.15c to 93.65c, as a recent winning streak significantly boosted their qualification chances. March 14, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Columbus Blue Jackets price surged from 57c to 74c, driven by a winning streak that pushed their model-projected playoff probability above 80%.

Although the rules specify which posts count (main feed, quotes, and reposts), the inclusion of 'replies recorded on the main feed' and 'deleted posts alive for ~5 mins' could cause counting disputes. Furthermore, heavy reliance on a specific tracker (xtracker) introduces the risk of technical glitches causing miscounts.

Outside of heavy prediction market participants, the general public would almost never think to track or predict the exact number of social media posts a world leader makes in a specific week, making it a typical exotic quantitative market.

April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The prices of the '100-119' and '80-99' options plummeted from ~37c and 42c down to single digits (~3c and 8c) respectively, as being halfway through the time period drastically reduced the mathematical probability of extreme post volumes, wiping out earlier speculative premiums. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The '60-79' option steadily climbed from 38.5c to 59.5c, as the accumulated pacing on the post tracker made this bracket the mathematical favorite. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026: The '140-159' option spiked from 1.65c to 27.2c before instantly collapsing to 0.6c, and '160-179' crashed from 22c to 0.6c, as the mathematical probability of such high counts dwindled with the passing time, wiping out early irrational speculation. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The '100-119' option experienced extreme volatility, spiking from 7.1c to 44.95c before dumping to 13.7c, reflecting market overreaction to a single-day burst of posts followed by rational correction. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The price of the '120-139' option spiked from 16.5c to 31.65c before dropping to 12.45c, likely due to a brief speculative surge on the possibility of higher frequency posting, which was quickly flattened by arbitrageurs. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026: Several high-frequency options ('180-199', '200+', '100-119') plummeted by more than 10c (e.g., '180-199' dropped from 21.6c to 1.65c). As the time window progressed, the mathematical probability of extreme post volumes collapsed, forcing a market correction. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: The '20-39' option crashed from 24.5c to 8c, presumably because early tracking data showed a fast posting pace, effectively eliminating the likelihood of the lowest brackets.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 100-119 bracket rose from 34.5c to 45.5c, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 38.5c to 19.5c. This was caused by Trump's posting frequency remaining consistently high over the tracked period, dramatically increasing the likelihood of finishing in the 100-119 range and sharply reducing the chance of the 80-99 outcome. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 38.5c to 21.5c, as Trump's actual posting frequency further accelerated, shifting market expectations towards higher brackets like 100-119 and 120-139. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 80-99 bracket dropped from 39.5c to 26c, while the 120-139 bracket rose from 11c to 23.5c. This was caused by an accelerated posting frequency mid-cycle, shifting the projected total higher. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 18.5c to 2.35c. This was caused by the continuous release of actual posting data over the first couple of days, where the pace made reaching such a low total highly unlikely, prompting a rapid capital exit. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 140-159 bracket plunged from 12.15c to 2.2c. This was caused by the release of the first day's actual posting data, making a very high total unlikely and triggering a sell-off. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. Multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price (26.5c) due to early illiquidity. As market makers stepped in, a clearer consensus formed around the 80-119 range, causing outlier brackets to correct sharply downwards. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to around 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets like 100-119.

This is a highly niche and trivial topic. The general public and mainstream media would never naturally wonder or predict the exact number of times the White House account tweets in a specific week. It is a purely manufactured betting market for high-frequency trading.

April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 23.5c to 2.85c, as the accumulated data over the weekend confirmed a lower run-rate, virtually eliminating the chance of exceeding 200 posts. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option dropped from 26.5c to 11.5c, because the required posting rate to reach this higher tier became less likely as days passed. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 23c to 38.5c, as the daily posting rate stabilized, significantly increasing the probability of ending in this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 36.5c to 4.5c, because as weekend data accumulated, the posting rate stabilized, significantly reducing the likelihood of reaching an extremely high total (200+). April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 12c to 26.5c (later falling to 23c), because as the 200+ probability dropped, some of those extreme expectations shifted to this second-highest range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 43c to 28c, because the actual rate leaned slightly towards higher ranges (160-179), further compressing the probability of this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 28c to 5.5c, as the high posting frequency caused a sharp drop in the probability of landing in this relatively lower tier. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.45c, because the high frequency of tweets from the White House makes it highly likely that the total will exceed this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 25.5c to 6.5c, also due to the high tweet frequency causing a sharp drop in the probability of this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.05c, because the total number of tweets has already far exceeded this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.2c, because the total number of tweets has already exceeded this range.

The market relies heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and has explicit caveats for replies and deleted posts (e.g., deleted posts count if captured within ~5 minutes). Latency in tracker data capture versus the actual X timeline could lead to resolution disputes, especially near the boundaries of the options.

Predicting the exact number of times a specific politician posts on social media within a given week is a highly niche and novelty concept that nobody outside of prediction market participants would naturally think about or track.

2026-04-12 - 2026-04-13, the price of the 40-59 option surged from 26c to 49c, while the 80-99 option plummeted from 34.5c to 13.5c. This is because Ted Cruz's posting rate dropped noticeably during this period, leading to a massive downward revision in the market's expectation of the final post count. 2026-04-12 - 2026-04-12, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 55.5c to 30c, and the 40-59 option fell from 46.5c to 28.5c, while the 80-99 option surged from 19.5c to 32.5c. This was caused by a short-term spike in posting activity, prompting an upward revision in the market's estimated total volume. 2026-04-10 - 2026-04-11, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 29c to 5.5c. This is because, as the first day's posting data became clearer, expectations for a very high frequency of over 100 posts cooled significantly, leading to a rapid withdrawal of capital. 2026-04-10 - 2026-04-11, the price of the 80-99 option fell from a peak of 47c to 28.5c, reflecting the market's recalibration of the total volume based on the latest posting rate. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 60-79 option surged from 26.5c to 44c. This is due to the market correcting the initially flat pricing as time progresses, with liquidity converging into the most probable posting range. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 80-99 option also surged from 26.5c to 43c, as market expectations became clearer and capital moved toward high-probability brackets. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 120-139 option plummeted from 26.5c to 5c, reflecting the very low likelihood of an exceptionally high post volume, prompting a downward market correction. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 20-39 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.55c, as Cruz's current activity level virtually rules out such a low post count.

The rules exclude replies but state they count if 'recorded on the main feed by the tracker,' creating potential discrepancies between X's UI and the tracker. Additionally, posts deleted under ~5 minutes might not count. Relying on an automated tracker introduces technical resolution vulnerabilities and dispute risks.

This is a highly exotic and novelty market. Ordinary people do not care about or track the exact number of X (Twitter) posts the NYC Mayor will make in a specific week. It is a purely manufactured, entertainment-driven topic created for prediction market speculators.

April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option rose from 69c to 87c, as the mayor's actual posting pace steadily points to this low-frequency bracket, increasing certainty. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 40-59 option plummeted from 48.45c to 8.55c, because the posting pace fell short of expectations, leading the market to further downgrade the probability of reaching over 40 posts. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option plummeted from 18.35c to 2.55c, likely because as time passed, the mathematical probability of reaching this high-frequency posting volume dropped sharply, bursting the earlier speculative bubble. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, multiple mid-to-high frequency options experienced extreme volatility. This was likely due to temporary lag or anomalies in the tracker data, coupled with low liquidity where small speculative buys caused significant price impact before arbitrageurs restored the balance. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option surged from 26.5c to 65.5c, as the market observed the new mayor's actual posting frequency was significantly lower than expected, prompting a rapid shift of funds to lower-frequency brackets. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 40-59 option plummeted from 26.5c to 3c, because previous expectations were too high, and the probability of this bracket was drastically downgraded as actual tracker data became available.

Resolution relies primarily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than directly on the visible X profile. Furthermore, the rule regarding deleted posts (requiring them to be live for ~5 minutes to be captured) and the handling of replies introduce subtle edge cases that could cause discrepancies between manual user counts and the tracker's final tally.

Forecasting the exact number of tweets a specific national leader will post in a given week is quite a niche and unconventional topic. Unless a major geopolitical crisis is unfolding, the general public rarely contemplates or predicts such highly specific social media behavioral frequencies.

April 13 to April 14, 2026: The '<5' option surged from 20c to 72c, as time elapsed with very few posts, cementing expectations that the total count will remain under 5. April 13 to April 14, 2026: The '30-34' option spiked from 3.5c to 63.7c, driven by extreme illiquidity where small trades caused massive short-term mispricing. April 12 to April 13, 2026: The '40-44' option plummeted from 41.75c to 2.6c, as the exceptionally poor liquidity and early anomalous high bids were corrected back to a reasonable range. April 10 to April 11, 2026: Prices of multiple options such as '50-54' and '45-49' surged from around 2c to over 45c, while lower ranges like '15-19' doubled from 20c to 47c. This was caused by extreme illiquidity, where small trades led to chaotic and massive mispricing across all brackets. April 9 to April 10, 2026: The '<5' option plummeted from 58c to 23.5c, while '60+' surged from 0.15c to 22.95c. This extreme volatility was driven by corrections as the tracking period began, exacerbated by severe illiquidity. April 7 to April 8, 2026: Both '55-59' and '60+' options crashed from 25c to roughly 1.5c, as the market adjusted to the highly improbable nature of Khamenei posting nearly 60 times in a single week.

The rules rely on a specific data tracker (xtracker) and have specific conditions for replies and deleted posts (requiring ~5 minutes of uptime). These technical nuances are hard to verify manually and could lead to resolution disputes if the tracker glitches.

Predicting the exact number of tweets by a specific public figure in a given week is highly unusual and random. Outside of hardcore prediction market traders, the general public rarely pays attention to such trivial statistics.

From April 13 to April 14, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option climbed from 30c to 61.5c, as the steady posting pace over time significantly increased the certainty of the final total landing in this range. From April 11 to April 12, 2026, due to short-term changes in CZ's posting frequency and low market liquidity, several core options experienced wild swings: the '60-79' option plummeted from 41.6c to 9.5c before rebounding to 18.7c; the '80-99' option crashed from 34.9c to 0.3c, quickly surged back to 24.5c, and then fell back to around 6c. This was primarily driven by new data inputs shifting the projected total, triggering capital reallocation. From April 10 to April 11, 2026, the YES prices of multiple options (e.g., 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, 80-99) experienced severe fluctuations of over 10 cents, with some options temporarily surging above 40c before quickly pulling back. This was due to poor market liquidity where small buy orders significantly pushed up prices, creating a massive premium in implied probabilities, which later reverted to reasonable ranges as the market self-corrected and arbitrageurs stepped in. From April 8 to April 10, 2026, the price of the '<20' option plummeted from 46.5c to 10.5c, as CZ's posting frequency early in the period increased, drastically reducing the likelihood of the total being under 20.

There is a significant trap in the rules: if the CDC fails to publish the report within the strict timeframe, the market defaults to the lowest bracket (<70) regardless of the actual hospitalization rate. The tie-breaker rule that rounds up boundary values also requires careful attention.

Predicting the cumulative flu hospitalization rate for a specific week is a niche topic. While public health data is standard, the general public rarely considers specific bracket predictions like this; it appeals mainly to hardcore data traders on specific prediction platforms.

April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 80–85 bracket surged from 47.5c to 81.5c, while the 85-90 option plummeted from 48c to 12.5c, and lower brackets like <70 and 70-75 crashed from over 40c to under 2c. This was driven by the release of the latest CDC flu hospitalization surveillance data, which solidified expectations for the 80-85 range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 80–85 bracket surged from 47.5c to a peak of 85.5c. This was driven by capital rapidly concentrating on this outcome as the CDC's flu hospitalization data became clearer. April 10, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the prices of lower-end brackets such as <70, 70-75, and 75-80 plummeted from over 40c to under 5c. This was primarily due to liquidity adjustments following market initialization and the confirmation that the final data would land in a higher bracket.

April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Paxton 9%+ price surged from 22.2c to 33c, likely due to recent polling or key endorsements further solidifying his substantial lead. March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Cornyn 3–6% price plummeted from 32c to 21c due to a major market efficiency correction. Previously, the market sum exceeded 300% (broken pricing); this correction eliminated the massive bubble, bringing the total sum closer to a logical 100%. Other options, such as Paxton 6–9%, corrected upward from 6.5c to 13c during the same period.

April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The Democratic Party price plunged from 72c to 57c, while the Republican Party price surged from 30c to 44c. This sharp correction was likely driven by new critical polling data or the incumbent releasing better-than-expected fundraising reports, forcing the market to dial back its prior overconfidence in a Democratic flip. March 5, 2026 - March 9, 2026: The Democratic Party price rose from 65c to 70.5c, signaling increased market confidence in a seat flip likely driven by negative sentiment against the incumbent, though the move did not breach the 10c alert threshold. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026: The Democratic Party price drifted down from 64c to 58.5c, and the Republican Party price fell from 36.5c to 31.5c. While neither move exceeded the 10c threshold, the simultaneous decline pushed the total implied probability below 100%, indicating a liquidity gap at that time.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a single day is a niche and novelty topic in prediction markets. While not extremely absurd, ordinary people typically wouldn't think about this specific question unless they are locals or weather enthusiasts.

April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 11°C surged from 41c to 60.5c, and 12°C rebounded from 10.5c to 27c, as the latest forecasts confirmed a high likelihood of the temperature falling in this range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 11°C surged from 15c to 35.5c, 10°C rose from 21.5c to 35.5c, while 13°C plummeted from 28c to 6.5c, due to updated weather forecasts closer to the resolution date lowering the expected high temperatures and pricing out warmer scenarios.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, multiple options experienced drastic fluctuations. The price of 31°C plummeted from 47c to 13.5c, 32°C dropped from 48c to 26.5c, and 35°C crashed from 25.5c to 4c. This was triggered by the meteorological agency issuing a heavy rain warning for Jakarta for the upcoming days, causing market uncertainty and leading traders to rapidly reprice and exit early positions.

There is a notable divergence. Current weather forecasts explicitly predict heavy rain on April 14, highly likely capping the maximum temperature at 31°C or 32°C. However, the prediction market still prices 33°C and 34°C relatively high (24.5c and 20c, respectively), indicating that some traders are underestimating the cooling effect of the rain or reacting to delayed information.

This is a highly specific single-day weather prediction market for Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. While following the weather is normal, turning the exact maximum temperature range for a specific day into a trading instrument makes it a relatively niche and novelty topic.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 33°C option surged from 26.5c to 42c, as weather forecast data became more definitive with the approaching target date, concentrating market expectations on 33°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 30°C option initially rose from 10.5c to 20.5c before plunging to 1.4c, due to short-term forecast fluctuations followed by the market ruling it out as too low. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of the 35°C or higher option plummeted from 25c to 8.5c, as forecasts indicated a significantly reduced likelihood of reaching such extreme high temperatures.

While weather prediction is a known sub-genre in prediction markets, betting on the exact high temperature of a specific day in Lagos, Nigeria is highly specialized and niche, mostly attracting weather enthusiasts rather than the general public.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 14.5c to 41c, and the 32°C option rose from 13.5c to 33.5c, while options for 35°C and above experienced sharp declines (e.g., 35°C dropped from 23c to 4c). This shift is due to weather forecasts converging as the target date approaches, solidifying expectations around the 32°C-33°C range and eliminating the likelihood of extreme highs.