There is moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and has detailed rules about what counts (reposts, quotes, main feed replies). Additionally, deleted posts may count if they survive for around 5 minutes, which could cause the final figure to deviate from a direct manual count on X.

This is quite a novelty market. Before seeing this prompt, ordinary people would rarely seriously forecast or track the exact number of tweets from the White House over a specific week. It is a typical novelty bet based on social media activity metrics.

April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 61c to 93c, while the '160-179' option plummeted from 35c to 5.75c. This occurred because, with less than a day remaining, actual posting volume definitively locked into the 140-159 range, eliminating higher frequency possibilities. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 65c to 82c, while the '160-179' option plummeted from 29.5c to 5.15c. This occurred because, with less than a day left, the actual posting volume nearly locked in the 140-159 range, eliminating the likelihood of higher frequency brackets. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 41.5c to a peak of 73c before dropping to 61c, while the '160-179' option fell from 53.5c to 35c, and '120-139' fell from 11.9c to 1.15c. This was due to the actual posting volume becoming clearer as the weekend passed and the final day approached, causing the market to make final adjustments between the 140-159 and 160-179 brackets. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option dropped from 50.5c to 43c, while '160-179' surged from 14.5c to 53.5c, as the posting frequency accelerated significantly before the weekend, pushing overall market expectations higher into the 160-179 bracket. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the '120-139' option surged from 22.5c to 43.25c before pulling back to 28.15c, while the '140-159' option spiked from 31.5c to 50.5c. This was caused by further actual posting data showing a continued slowdown in posting pace, concentrating market expectations in lower brackets, followed by a slight correction. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 15c to 31.5c, and the '120-139' option spiked from 2.6c to 22.5c. Concurrently, the '180-199' option plummeted from 34.5c to 20.5c, and '200+' dropped from 32.75c to 7.2c. This was caused by the release of actual posting data from the first few days of the period, which showed a much slower pace than anticipated, prompting capital to quickly rotate from extreme high-frequency brackets into the 120-159 median ranges. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option surged from 16.5c to 34.5c, while the '200+' option jumped from 4.5c to 32.75c. This was driven by traders recalibrating expectations for higher posting frequencies as the measurement period approached. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option plummeted from 42c to 13.5c as market sentiment and liquidity shifted toward higher post-volume brackets.

Moderate risk. The rules explicitly exclude standard replies but include quotes and reposts, relying heavily on a specific Polymarket tracker (xtracker). Additionally, deleted posts count if they remain up for ~5 minutes, creating a discrepancy with the commonly perceived visible post count and causing potential statistical illusions.

Quite exotic. Predicting the exact number of tweets/posts a specific politician (NYC Mayor) makes in a specific week is a highly niche, novelty-driven event based on trivial data. The general public and traditional analysts rarely consider such questions.

2026-04-11 to 2026-04-14, the price of '20-39' climbed from 79c to 96c, as with only half a day remaining until resolution, the total number of tweets is extremely likely to be locked within this range. 2026-04-10 to 2026-04-11, the price of '20-39' rebounded from 73.5c to 84.5c, as the posting pace stabilized, reaffirming the high probability of landing in this range. 2026-04-10 to 2026-04-10, the price of '20-39' plummeted from 93c to 73.5c, likely due to a brief flurry of posts that temporarily increased market fears of surpassing 40 posts. 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-10, the price of '20-39' climbed from 71.5c to 94c, as the passage of time had heavily locked the posting pace into this range. 2026-04-07 to 2026-04-10, the price of '40-59' fell from 49.8c to 3c, as the daily posting pace was clearly not sufficient to confidently reach 40 posts. 2026-04-04 to 2026-04-07, the price of '20-39' surged from 30.5c to 70c due to a noticeable recent decline in the account's posting frequency, causing the market to rapidly adjust its expectations.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'SWIM - BTS' dropped from 89c to 74c, and 'Babydoll - Dominic Fike' rebounded from 10.5c to 21c, indicating a slight market reassessment of the final stream gap, likely due to daily updates narrowing the distance. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of 'SWIM - BTS' surged from 34c to 86c. The reason is that as Spotify's daily streaming data for the week was gradually released, the song showed an unassailable lead in global streams. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of 'Babydoll - Dominic Fike' plummeted from 61.5c to 11c as its actual streaming numbers were vastly outperformed by 'SWIM - BTS'. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the prices of multiple songs including 'Risk It All - Bruno Mars', 'End of Beginning - Djo', 'Raindance', and 'Dracula' collapsed from 40c+ to under 1c, reflecting that after the latest streaming data updates, their chances of taking the weekly #1 spot were completely eliminated.

Predicting the exact number of solar or geomagnetic storms within a specific week is a highly niche and exotic topic for the general public, mostly appealing to geeks, science enthusiasts, or professional meteorologists.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '<3' option surged from 12.5c to over 82c, while the '8+' option violently fluctuated between 10c and 42c, as the market aggressively corrected its early-week forecasts, likely reacting to updated space weather data. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, prices for options 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8+ plummeted from the 40-50c range down to the 6-21c range. The reason is market participants stepping in to correct the absurdly high prices caused by extreme illiquidity and initial mispricing, bringing them closer to a realistic probability distribution.

There is a severe mathematical divergence in the market pricing. The sum of the implied probabilities for all 'Yes' options currently stands at 174%, which is mathematically absurd for mutually exclusive events (which should sum to ~100%). This indicates that due to the niche nature of the market, depleted liquidity, and sparse order books, prices have completely detached from meteorological consensus and basic laws of probability.

This is a typical regional weather forecasting market. While predicting a single day's highest temperature in Ankara, Turkey, is far from a globally prominent political or economic event, weather betting is a standard and common niche within prediction platforms, making it moderately unconventional but not bizarre.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 16°C dropped from 32.5c to 15.5c, while 15°C fluctuated sharply between 6c and 27.5c. This was caused by fine-tuned meteorological forecasts regarding the expected high on the 14th, leading to capital shifting back and forth between adjacent temperature brackets.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts explicitly project a maximum temperature of around 15°C [8] for April 14, yet the prediction market currently prices 17°C and 18°C significantly higher (at 38c and 20.5c respectively), while 15°C is trading at only 15c. The market pricing distribution is misaligned with meteorological consensus.

While checking the weather forecast is a daily habit, predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day as a tradable market is somewhat novel and niche for the general public.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the Yes price of 22°C surged from 35c to 47.5c, while 23°C fell from 41.5c to 28.5c, and 24°C plummeted from 17c to 3.5c. As the resolution day approached, real-time data and updated forecasts indicated the high is more likely to stall at 22°C, reducing the probabilities of 23°C and above. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price of 23°C climbed from 25.5c to 41.5c. Updated short-term weather models favor a warmer outcome around 73°F (22.8°C), shifting market confidence toward 23°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price of 21°C plummeted from 35c to 6c. This is because weather forecasts further confirmed the high would reach 22°C-23°C, drastically reducing the probability of 21°C.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a relatively niche weather betting market. The general public rarely pays attention to such specific details, though it acts as a common novelty bet among prediction market participants.

April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '19°C or higher' fluctuated between 56c and 74.5c, reflecting high-frequency adjustments in forecast models regarding the probability of breaking the 19°C threshold due to subtle air mass changes. April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '17°C' dropped from 22.5c to around 3c, as weather forecasts became more certain that temperatures would reach 18°C or higher as the date approached. April 12, 2026, the price of '18°C' briefly spiked from 15.5c to 29.5c before settling, reflecting short-term model adjustments regarding whether the peak temperature would hold at 18°C or cross into the 19°C+ threshold.

From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 17°C option plummeted from 22.5c to 0.8c, as updated forecasts closer to the date ruled out significant cooling. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 18°C option dropped from 23.0c to 1.2c, similarly due to increased forecast certainty eliminating cooler extremes. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 19°C option fell from 26.5c to 6.5c, as the forecast center shifted towards the higher 20°C or 21°C. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 20°C option climbed from 28.0c to 41.0c, as forecasts further confirmed this temperature range as the most likely. From April 12, 2026, to April 13, 2026, the price of the 22°C option dropped from 25.0c to 12.5c, as forecasts ruled out abnormally warm anomalies.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '28°C' plunged from 27.5c to 2.45c, while '31°C' surged from 8.5c to 23.05c, and '29°C' rose to 40c. The reason is that updated aviation weather forecasts (TAF) for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport revised the expected high temperature upward to around 30°C, drastically reducing the likelihood of 28°C and driving capital into higher temperature brackets. No options have experienced a drastic price movement of over 10c recently; prices have remained stable in line with minor adjustments in weather forecasts.

The earnings result of BlackRock (BLK) directly impacts its own stock price. Typically, earnings beats or misses trigger medium-level volatility (around 5%), making it a tradable event. Although BlackRock is a financial giant, its individual earnings report has a limited direct impact on the broader S&P 500 index.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of 'Yes' experienced a sharp drop from 85.5c to 67.5c before rebounding to 79.5c. This sudden volatility of over 10 cents likely reflects last-minute position adjustments, localized de-risking, or overreactions to short-term market rumors right before the earnings call, after which the price restabilized near consensus expectations. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026: The market remained relatively stable, with the price of 'Yes' drifting down slightly from 87c to 81.5c. No significant sudden price movement (over 10 cents) was observed. This suggests some investors are taking profits or reducing risk exposure ahead of the earnings release. April 7, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The market remained stable, with the price of 'Yes' fluctuating mildly between 86c and 88c, eventually settling around 86.5c. No significant sudden price movement (over 10 cents) was observed, indicating stable market expectations ahead of the earnings release. April 6, 2026 - April 9, 2026: The market remained stable, with the price of 'Yes' fluctuating mildly between 86c and 92.5c, eventually settling around 87c. No significant sudden price movement (over 10 cents) was observed. This gradual adjustment reflects investors balancing profit-taking with sustained bullish sentiment as the earnings date approaches. April 4, 2026 - April 7, 2026: No significant sudden price movement (over 10 cents) was observed. The price of 'Yes' fluctuated mildly between 86c and 92.5c before settling at 88c. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026: As there was only limited initial snapshot data, no significant price movement (over 10 cents) had been observed during this period.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of Real Sociedad rebounded from 20.5c to 30.5c, as liquidity returned and some market participants viewed the previous drop as oversold. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026: The price of Real Sociedad dropped significantly from 35c to 20.5c, likely due to liquidity shifts or capital withdrawal bringing the price closer to its fair value. April 5, 2026 - April 9, 2026: Prices for both teams remained relatively stable without massive fluctuations.

The title does not specify the source of the Ethereum Implied Volatility Index (e.g., Deribit's DVOL or T3's BitVol). Different platforms may have significantly different calculations and values, leading to resolution disputes. Additionally, whether 'hit' implies touching at any moment or a closing price, and specifically 'by' a date usually means touching at any point before the deadline, but the lack of a definitive data source creates medium risk.

April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The price of '↑ 90' plummeted from 51.5c to 21.5c, and '↑ 85' fell from 62.5c to 49.5c, as market expectations for Ethereum's short-term implied volatility baseline receded, and the probability of breaking out to extreme highs dropped sharply as expiration approaches. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026: The price of '↓ 60' plummeted from 18.5c to 1.1c, likely due to a liquidity void resulting in an anomalous dump or a fat-finger trade; meanwhile, '↓ 70' climbed from 31.5c to 47c, reflecting some market concern about volatility testing the lower bounds. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '↑ 90' surged from 26.5c to 53.5c, as structural market shifts led traders to expect sharper upward volatility movements in the short term. March 24, 2026 - March 27, 2026: The price of '↑ 110' plummeted from 21c to 5c, as the probability of reaching extremely high volatility drops sharply as expiration approaches; '↓ 60' fell from 38c to 25c, and '↓ 50' fell from 27c to 23c, reflecting diminished expectations for a massive volatility drop. March 21, 2026 - March 24, 2026: The price of '↑ 85' surged from 53c to 85c, driven by market expectations of upcoming catalysts pushing implied volatility higher; '↑ 100' dropped from 49.5c to 47c, and '↑ 90' from 51c to 48c. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026: Prices for all options remained stagnant around 50c with no significant movement. This indicated minimal market participation and a failure to adjust prices to the actual volatility index level (approx. 74).

While 'talk' is clearly defined, relying on a 'consensus of credible reporting' for private conversations poses risks. Official calls are usually disclosed, but secret backchannel communications with sensitive figures (like Putin or Kim Jong Un) might only generate rumors, leading to disputes over resolution criteria.

April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Ahmed al-Sharaa's price surged from 15c to 36.5c, due to new developments in the Middle East increasing the likelihood of direct or indirect contact with Trump. April 5, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Elon Musk's price plummeted from 43.5c to 28.5c, likely because an expected meeting was postponed or canceled, or the market deemed direct interaction less probable this month. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, Mohammed bin Salman's price steadily climbed from 71.5c to 85.2c, indicating a strengthening market expectation of a phone call with Trump this month. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Mark Carney's price surged from 47.5c to 95.2c, and Mark Rutte's price surged from 67c to 98.4c, likely due to confirmed itineraries or news reports suggesting imminent or already occurred meetings with Trump this month. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Emmanuel Macron's price plummeted from 65c to 41c, Keir Starmer's price dropped from 73.5c to 59c, and Ursula von der Leyen's price fell from 51c to 35.5c. This reflects cooling expectations for direct dialogue between these European leaders and Trump, or multilateral meeting agendas lacking specific bilateral engagements. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Mohammed bin Salman's price spiked from 58.5c to 83.5c before retreating to 69c, while Vladimir Putin's price dipped from 52.5c to 38c before rebounding to 49.5c, indicating significant market disagreement and the impact of breaking news regarding potential phone calls with these key geopolitical figures this month.

Wells Fargo's (WFC) earnings performance will directly trigger significant volatility in its stock on the release day (typically meeting the Score 3 threshold of ~5% movement). Additionally, as a systemically important US bank, its results and macroeconomic guidance may exert a minor spillover effect on broader indices like the S&P 500 and the financial sector. This event holds significant direct hedging value for WFC equities.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 60.5c to 97.1c, likely due to the extremely imminent earnings release, accelerating capital inflows, and market confidence in Wells Fargo beating earnings peaking. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 83.5c to 60.5c, possibly due to profit-taking ahead of the weekend or short-term negative market rumors. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 76.5c to 86.5c, likely due to growing market confidence in Wells Fargo beating earnings estimates as the release date approaches, along with continued capital inflows. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 25c to 74.5c, likely due to market correction or liquidity restoration following the earlier price plunge. April 7, 2026 15:10 to 22:45, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 83c to 25c, likely due to negative rumors regarding the earnings report, liquidity shocks from large orders, or brief market panic.

This is a KOL trading competition hosted by a specific platform (Legend Trade). While it garners some attention within crypto and trading circles, it is quite niche and obscure to the general public.

April 13, 2026, the competition reached an extreme fever pitch, with severe price fluctuations across multiple competitors. Prodzy surged from 5.7c to 17.15c to reclaim the lead; Elisa plummeted from 26.45c to 12.85c, losing her advantage; Madz rebounded from 3.15c to 12.9c, and Kurt bounced back from under 1c to 9.7c. This was caused by the final sprint of the competition, where minor shifts on the live leaderboard or successful trading strategies led to rapid reversals in market sentiment. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the competition reached a fever pitch with extreme reversals on the live trading leaderboard. Elisa's price skyrocketed from under 1c (0.45c) to 24.6c, taking the lead. Meanwhile, Trevor plummeted from 40.2c to 12.3c, Prodzy crashed from 36.8c to 5.5c, MINHxDYNASTY dropped from 38c to 14.5c, and Jim Parillo and Kurt both fell sharply from highs above 37c. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, almost all options experienced wild swings again. Trevor skyrocketed from 0.25c to 40.2c before settling at 32c, Prodzy surged from 0.75c to 36.8c, Jadoodoo spiked from 12.5c to 34.5c, and Kurt jumped from 0.4c to 36.7c. This was due to the competition entering its final sprint, where frequent live leaderboard swaps caused extreme market sentiment instability. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Jim Parillo's price surged from 8c to 29c before falling back to 8c, and Prodzy's price spiked from 17.5c to 28c before dropping to 13.5c. Meanwhile, Elisa's price plummeted from 19.5c to 7.5c. This extreme volatility was likely driven by live leaderboard updates during the competition where Jim and Prodzy temporarily took the lead, but their edge was later erased. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, Madz's price spiked from 10c to 26.5c, and Elisa's price surged from 15.5c to 25c. This was likely due to a periodic leaderboard update where both traders showed standout performance. However, by April 8, both prices corrected downward, indicating that other competitors closed the gap or market sentiment cooled.